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Handicapping the Presidential Race: May 1 snapshot....

ok RJ I will take your persistent baiting. You make a LOT of assumptions about how women feel about things and how they will decide who is best to lead the country when they vote this fall. In 2010 Republicans/conservatives/Tea Party candidates received more female votes than the other side. In 2008, the majority of women voted Dem/Lib. My personal perception is that the women vote will split, or vote a slight edge to Romney this go round. Romney presents female voters with a positive choice, despite your comments, and I believe he will do well with women voters who care about family, the economy, the deficit, etc. So, guess we will see with the exit polling lol. Have a good night RJ.

I do appreciate your tremendous loyalty.

In 2010 we didn't have all of the above.

The lowest poll has Obama up 12%. It goes up 19%. Very simply, if Obama is up 10% with women there is no Romney wins.
 
131 million people voted in the 2008 presidential election.....an all-time record by about 9 million votes. Do I understand you & PH correctly that you think the total vote in the 2012 election will be less than the 131 million who voted four years ago?

I'd take a friendly wager that the turnout will be less than the 131 million from 2008.
 
I think negative superPac ads will keep the vote down. it will be in the +/-1.5% of last time rather than the natural gain due to the growth of the voting populace.
 
Well, we will know soon enough. Personally, I think the total vote will be more than 131 million. I'm not saying it will jump another 9 million, but I think it will be higher than it was four years ago.

I'll wager a bottle of single malt whiskey (keep it around $50 to be fair).
 
I'm in too, there's absolutely no way that turnout will be above 131 million. In the interest of full disclosure I've also been studying potential turnout in one of my classes and projections have it being substantially lower than 131 million. Young people voted at a rate that will never again be met in the American electoral system barring another charismatic Obama character. Obama has lost a lot of his younger base because of not delivering on a lot of the hope and change which was included in his campaign rhetoric.

I think it will be between 124-126 million of course this could all change.
 
Gotta figure there will be an addition of 10-15 million people to the voter electorate and I expect the turnout to drop to around 52%.

That puts the numbers at around 241-246 million and would put the turnout at 125-127 million.
 
BKF called me brilliant and recommended that I run for office. What a kind man. I will Bob, I will run for president just for you as soon as I turn 35!
 
131 million people voted in the 2008 presidential election.....an all-time record by about 9 million votes. Do I understand you & PH correctly that you think the total vote in the 2012 election will be less than the 131 million who voted four years ago?

Yes I do think there will be less. Black voter turnout in 2008 was nearly 5% higher than 2004. If you go back and look at Gore's campaign in 2004, he used everything he could in the last 30 days to ensure high black voter turnout and it was on par for prior elections. I think the black voter turnout will resemble 2004 not 2008, because, as stated earlier, there is tremendously high unemployment in the black community, plus they feel extremely disappointed in the President's inability to deliver on various promises. As a lot of black youth voted in 2008, this also will affect the youth vote. 2nd, the youth vote itself will decrease to more normal voter turnout %s, and Romney will get a higher percentage of whatever youth vote turns out than McCain did in 2008. I think white males will be out in higher numbers than 2008, similar to the "angry white male voter" election (was that 1994? can't remember) anyways...so bottom line is less overall voters, probably around 125 million.
 
Are you talking about Kerry's campaign in 2004 or Gore's campaign in 2000?
 
Are you talking about Kerry's campaign in 2004 or Gore's campaign in 2000?

Oops and thanks. Yep the statistics were 2004, so def should have said Kerry. Haven't checked 2000 but would be interesting. Another impact we haven't brought into the discussion is Catholics and Jews. While I expect the Dems to win the majority of Jewish voters, there could be some erosion this November which would affect Florida, and Pennsylvania. Catholics of course are a broad spectrum of the other voting blocks, and would also affect Pennsylvania and Ohio quite a bit.
 
NCsports, 95+% of Catholics use birth control. It's only the old men bishops that are opposed to it.

Killing Medicare will harm Romney with the old Jews in FL badly.
 
I wonder how much Obama's race plays a factor in this election. I think it will be more of a factor this time around than in 08.

Having said that, I dont see how he loses. The way I see it playing out, Romney has to win Ohio, PA, and Florida to win the election. If he loses one of those states, Obama takes it. Unless the economy goes way into the toilet, there's no way Romney wins all three.
 
A good indication in PA, OH, FL is that Romney has spent millions in each state recently and he still trails Obama in each of them. When Obama starts participating in those states, Romney will have big problems.

Romney's stance on GM and on employee rights will be devastating in OH.
 
I wonder how much Obama's race plays a factor in this election. I think it will be more of a factor this time around than in 08.

Having said that, I dont see how he loses. The way I see it playing out, Romney has to win Ohio, PA, and Florida to win the election. If he loses one of those states, Obama takes it. Unless the economy goes way into the toilet, there's no way Romney wins all three.

How do you figure?
 
I disagree. I think a lot all the money going into politics will do more to turn people against the process and desensitize people to anything that really matters in politics. There will be so many lies and distortions on the airways that people will stop caring.

Well said. I'm one of those people, though I try to fight against the apathy.
 
How do you figure?

Pure speculation. Not too long ago I read a good article about black coaches in the NFL. The basic premise of the article was that current statistics show they're hired and fired like their white counterparts. Whereas when black coaches were first hired they were not given as long a leash. Kind of like behind the scenes the owners were saying, "we'll give this black guy a shot, but if he screws up....he's out of here." I'm just wondering if there werent some white voters, and more specifically, older white voters who didnt have that thought process in 08. They might be less likely to give a black president a second chance on what they may perceive to be a poorly done job.
 
How about older white voters who see one candidate costing them $6000 more than the other for their Medicare if elected? Do you think the color of the other guy's skin will matter much in this case?
 
How about older white voters who see one candidate costing them $6000 more than the other for their Medicare if elected? Do you think the color of the other guy's skin will matter much in this case?

I dont think people put that much thought into voting.
 
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