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Handicapping the Presidential Race: May 1 snapshot....

Old people do. If you can convince them one side is going to change their Medicare that dramatically, the other will get their vote.
 
Nope, the Ryan Budget (which Romney says is "marvelous") gives seniors vouchers for Medicare. The CBO says it will cost the average senior an extra $6000/year.

Ryan can't use the CBO to say his plan is "good" and not use the CBO for the bad stuff.
 
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Eh, those old people will be dead soon anyway, they don't need Obamacare in the grave.
 
Pure speculation. Not too long ago I read a good article about black coaches in the NFL. The basic premise of the article was that current statistics show they're hired and fired like their white counterparts. Whereas when black coaches were first hired they were not given as long a leash. Kind of like behind the scenes the owners were saying, "we'll give this black guy a shot, but if he screws up....he's out of here." I'm just wondering if there werent some white voters, and more specifically, older white voters who didnt have that thought process in 08. They might be less likely to give a black president a second chance on what they may perceive to be a poorly done job.

Gotcha. One of the other factors moreso in college than in the NFL is that new black coaches tend to inherit much worse situations than new white coaches. We'll see if that factor comes into play. Two big things Obama will have to do are (1) remind people how big the problems were in 2008 and sell how much things are improving despite that and (2) show that Romney offers no different solutions or isn't capable of any different solutions than we so before 2008.
 
Nope, the Ryan Budget (which Romney says is "marvelous") gives seniors vouchers for Medicare. The CBO says it will cost the average senior an extra $6000/year.

Ryan can't use the CBO to say his plan is "good" and not use the CBO for the bad stuff.

Ahh gotcha. Whats the Obama's alternative to that budget?
 
He put together a $4T budget deficit reduction plan which Boehner wouldn't even allow to be discussed.

the #1 thing the Dems need to do if they keep the Senate is to get rid of the cloture rule and make people actually go to the floor if they want to filibuster something. Of course I don't think the Dems have the balls to do this.
 
Gotcha. One of the other factors moreso in college than in the NFL is that new black coaches tend to inherit much worse situations than new white coaches. We'll see if that factor comes into play. Two big things Obama will have to do are (1) remind people how big the problems were in 2008 and sell how much things are improving despite that and (2) show that Romney offers no different solutions or isn't capable of any different solutions than we so before 2008.

Agreed. Obama's mantra should be we're on the right track and romney is bush all over again.
 
Romney and his people should shut up. This weekend his top financial advisor was at a Washington Post event blatantly lying about the GM bailout being Romney's idea.

Romney wrote and oped in the NYT saying "let GM die". There was no "managed bailout". There was no private money. There was no way out other than a government bailout. Romney opposed that bailout.

no he is instructing his surrogates to simply lie in public about this issue. If he continues to do this, Obama will win bigger than he did last time.

It's one to flip flop. Romney now believes he blatantly lie even when there is a paper trail. He has to stop doing this.
 
Ahh gotcha. Whats the Obama's alternative to that budget?

He put together a $4T budget deficit reduction plan which Boehner wouldn't even allow to be discussed.

the #1 thing the Dems need to do if they keep the Senate is to get rid of the cloture rule and make people actually go to the floor if they want to filibuster something. Of course I don't think the Dems have the balls to do this.


Notice RJ's recurring technique. He dodges the question about Obama's budget proposals because there are none. Well, let me take that back. Obama DID propose a budget in February for FY 2012-13 which did not address short or long term deficits at all because plain and simple he has no intention of doing anything to address the nation's deficit crisis. So instead of stating the truth, RJ goes back to a supposed and alleged negotiation proposal which is never been factual or written anywhere to say it's "the Republicans fault". Really isn't it time you just admit the Obama FY 2012-13 budget leaves the deficits untouched and is an utter abdication of leadership by Obama?
 
Notice RJ's recurring technique. He dodges the question about Obama's budget proposals because there are none. Well, let me take that back. Obama DID propose a budget in February for FY 2012-13 which did not address short or long term deficits at all because plain and simple he has no intention of doing anything to address the nation's deficit crisis. So instead of stating the truth, RJ goes back to a supposed and alleged negotiation proposal which is never been factual or written anywhere to say it's "the Republicans fault". Really isn't it time you just admit the Obama FY 2012-13 budget leaves the deficits untouched and is an utter abdication of leadership by Obama?

100% absolutely totally false. It's been written and discussed ad nauseum on every responsible network and newspaper.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2012...ould-shrink-deficit-by-4T/UPI-87601329121800/

Sorry, you wouldn't see it on Faux News.
 
I presume you're talking about this rJ:
The budget blueprint would cut $4 trillion in spending over the next 10 years, Obama said during a speech at Northern Virginia Community College in Annandale, Va. It also includes raising $1.5 trillion through taxes.

I will say this. If Obama has proposed a plan that cuts our deficit by $4T over the next 10 years from where it is now, I will vote for him. Alas....I'm pretty sure this isn't it. He has proposed to reduce SPENDING by that much, in small increments, over 10 years. Most of which I'm sure is after he has left office, even if he wins this year. And in any event, those are cuts from the INCREEASES that he has pushed through. Instead of >$1T deficits per year, we'll dial it back to $800B. Thanks, but this is total bullshit.
 

Lots of good points in there.

One of the last arguments I remember getting into before the board switch was based on a statement that I made to the effect that awhile some people following politics is a duty as a citizen, following politics is actually a hobby. DeacMan threw a hissy fit about it. I'm sure you can find it. It's probably still on the front page.

Every week it seems like there is some form of traditional media or activity or whatever that is in decline. Sports attendance or viewership or reading the paper or something. Many people just don't follow politics on a everyday basis. They have better things to do. I think it's even more true when times are tougher and people don't have as much luxury time.

Interestingly, this is the main reason why so much money will be spent in this election in those traditional media forms that people are ignoring. They're trying to get people to care about the election and pick a side.
 
Lots of good points in there.

One of the last arguments I remember getting into before the board switch was based on a statement that I made to the effect that awhile some people following politics is a duty as a citizen, following politics is actually a hobby. DeacMan threw a hissy fit about it. I'm sure you can find it. It's probably still on the front page.

Every week it seems like there is some form of traditional media or activity or whatever that is in decline. Sports attendance or viewership or reading the paper or something. Many people just don't follow politics on a everyday basis. They have better things to do. I think it's even more true when times are tougher and people don't have as much luxury time.

Interestingly, this is the main reason why so much money will be spent in this election in those traditional media forms that people are ignoring. They're trying to get people to care about the election and pick a side.


To piggyback on this point, I think the large majority of voters are one issue voters. So, even those that do follow politics (and, let's assume that people who vote actually follow politics) do so for only one, or very few, issues. They just want to know how that particular candidate will vote on the one thing they care about or the one thing that could effect their job. To follow the candidates' positions on anything else would be deemed a luxury to these individuals. It's nice if they have the time to research it, but in the end they dont care.
 
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