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Thread: Handicapping the Presidential Race: May 1 snapshot....

  1. #61
    I heard Juan Williams say he thinks Romney should pick Condeleeza Rice, not Rubio as a running mate. I don't think that beats Obama/Biden, but could make things more interesting.

  2. #62
    Randolph Childress RJKarl's Avatar
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    Rice has taken herself out of the equation. Plus it would hurt Romney not help him.

    Who more embodies the W years than Condi Rice? Who more embodies the incompeentce of not being able to get OBL than Rice?

    Of course, the leader for VP right now appears to be Rob Portman. A freshman marketing student would have a field day with him.

    Rob Portmen, Head of OMB under W. His great skills helped take from $250B annual surpluses to $1T deficits. Do we want him helping to ruin our economy again?

  3. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Complacent Deac View Post
    I heard Juan Williams say he thinks Romney should pick Condeleeza Rice, not Rubio as a running mate. I don't think that beats Obama/Biden, but could make things more interesting.
    She'd be a good pick up. Great pick up in fact. She definitely has some haters out there, but she's one of the few people with high-level experience under Bush who doesn't have a hugely negative reputation. She brings a ton of foreign policy experience which would help Romney's weaknesses. We don't know much about where she stands on domestic issues so we can't run point/counterpoint with her and some version of Romney. He could pick up some ground with women by flanking himself with his wife and Condi who are more personable and likable than him.

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by ncsportsnut1 View Post
    Ok RJ, I'm really curious how you know 95+% of Catholics use birth control?
    Does anal count?

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by Caturday View Post
    Does anal count?
    No longer referred to this when discussing the unprotected variety. ELC's entry into the OGBoards lexicon requires that this act now be referred to as "rawdogging the mudslide."

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by Liquid Karma View Post
    No longer referred to this when discussing the unprotected variety. ELC's entry into the OGBoards lexicon requires that this act now be referred to as "rawdogging the mudslide."
    Wow, that is graphic. Really paints a picture.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by PhDeac View Post
    She'd be a good pick up. Great pick up in fact. She definitely has some haters out there, but she's one of the few people with high-level experience under Bush who doesn't have a hugely negative reputation. She brings a ton of foreign policy experience which would help Romney's weaknesses. We don't know much about where she stands on domestic issues so we can't run point/counterpoint with her and some version of Romney. He could pick up some ground with women by flanking himself with his wife and Condi who are more personable and likable than him.
    Yes, she DOES have some haters no doubt. Also, Juan points out Rice came out in support of illegals with the Arizona vote coming up --- Romney can't do any worse with illegals. So, there's that I suppose.

  8. #68
    Some encouraging numbers in the markets today which presents an interesting situation for Obama. An uptick in manufacturing is a good sign for economic growth but the way the market pricing oil now with a glut of supply, demand is driving oil prices. So the economy may rebound some in the coming months but oil prices will rise and in turn consumers will react. We aren't going to see a massive economic rebound between now and November but oil prices have much more upside growth which could really leave consumers feeling a pinch.

    http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...01-713329.html

  9. #69
    Initial Analysis of the Presidential General Election Permalink

    While a lot can and will happen between now and Nov. 6, some of it unprecedented, even in politics there are things you can usually count on. For starters, take a look at this Excel spreadsheetor.csv fileshowing the percentages the Democratic and Republican candidates received in all presidential elections from 1900 up to and including 2008. We will now focus on the most recent five elections (1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008), which the Democrats won three times and the Republicans won twice.
    What can we learn? To start with, There are 13 states the Republicans carried five out of five since 1992. Romney is certain to get all 102 of their electoral votes. However, there are 18 states plus D.C. that are five for five for the Democrats since 1992. Let's assume Obama wins these 19 and pockets their 242 electoral votes. Given that only 270 are needed to win, Obama starts out with a very solid base if he can hang onto the traditionally Democratic states.
    But that is not the whole story. The other states are not all swing states. In particular, a number of states in the South are traditionally Republican but voted for Bill Clinton and there are a few other anomalies (such as Obama winning Indiana, something he is unlikely to repeat). Here is the breakdown.
    GOP 5 for 5

    Alabama (9)
    Alaska (3)
    Idaho (4)
    Kansas (6)
    Mississippi (6)
    Nebraska (5)
    N. Dakota (3)
    Oklahoma (7)
    S. Carolina (9)
    S. Dakota (3)
    Texas (38)
    Utah (6)
    Wyoming (3)







    102 EVs
    GOP 4 for 5

    Arizona (11)
    Georgia (16)
    Indiana (11)
    Montana (3)
    N. Carolina (15)
    Virginia (13)














    69 EVs
    Split 3/2

    Arkansas (6)
    Colorado (9)
    Florida (29)
    Kentucky (8)
    Louisiana (8)
    Missouri (10)
    Nevada (6)
    Ohio (18)
    Tennessee (11)
    West Virginia (5)










    110 EVs
    Dem 4 for 5

    Iowa (6)
    New Hampshire (4)
    New Mexico (5)

















    15 EVs
    Dem 5 for 5

    California (55)
    Connecticut (7)
    D.C. (3)
    Delaware (3)
    Hawaii (4)
    Illinois (20)
    Maine (4)
    Maryland (10)
    Massachusetts (11)
    Michigan (16)
    Minnesota (10)
    New Jersey (14)
    New York (29)
    Oregon (7)
    Pennsylvania (20)
    Rhode Island (4)
    Vermont (3)
    Washington (12)
    Wisconsin (10)

    242 EVs

    Now let's look more closely at the three middle columns. Arizona is an interesting special case. The demographics are similar to Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico, which are trending Democratic, but there also are quite a few Mormons in the north and Latinos in the south. With a Mormon (Mitt Romney) running for President and a Latino (Richard Carmona) runing for the Senate, turnout is likely to be high, but the state still leans Republican, as do Indiana and Montana. Obama won Virginia and North Carolina in 2008, so these have to be classified as tossups.
    Not all the states in the middle column are tossups because the southerner Clinton won Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virgina twice and all are probably out of reach for Obama, so let's give Romney another 38 electoral votes. Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio are more-or-less tossups. The states in column 4, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, lean somewhat Democratic. So if we now get something like this.
    Solid GOP

    Alabama (9)
    Alaska (3)
    Arkansas (6)
    Idaho (4)
    Indiana (11)
    Georgia (16)
    Kansas (6)
    Kentucky (8)
    Louisiana (8)
    Mississippi (6)
    Montana (3)
    Nebraska (5)
    N. Dakota (3)
    Oklahoma (7)
    S. Dakota (3)
    Tennessee (11)
    Texas (38)
    Utah (6)
    West Virginia (5)
    Wyoming (3)

    170 EVs
    Lean GOP

    Arizona (11)




















    11 EVs
    Tossups

    Colorado (9)
    Florida (29)
    Missouri (10)
    Nevada (6)
    N. Carolina (15)
    Ohio (18)
    Virginia (13)














    100 EVs
    Lean Dem

    Iowa (6)
    New Hampshire (4)
    New Mexico (5)


















    15 EVs
    Solid Dem

    California (55)
    Connecticut (7)
    D.C. (3)
    Delaware (3)
    Hawaii (4)
    Illinois (20)
    Maine (4)
    Maryland (10)
    Massachusetts (11)
    Michigan (16)
    Minnesota (10)
    New Jersey (14)
    New York (29)
    Oregon (7)
    Pennsylvania (20)
    Rhode Island (4)
    Vermont (3)
    Washington (12)
    Wisconsin (10)


    242 EVs

    Now we have 170 EVs solid for Romney, 11 leaning to Romney, 100 tossups, 15 leaning to Obama, and 242 solid for Obama. Let's leave the analysis at that for the moment. Suffice it to say that nearly all the action will be in the 11 states in the middle three columns. More next time.

  10. #70
    Randolph Childress RJKarl's Avatar
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    In that scenario, Obama can lose OH. FL, VA, NC ad MO and still win.

  11. #71
    The Cook Political Report was updated last week.

    If you count the "lean"s, they've got Obama ahead 227-210, with the following toss-ups:
    Colorado (9)
    Florida (29)
    Iowa (6)
    Nevada (6)
    Ohio (18)
    Pennsylvania (20)
    Virginia (13)

  12. #72
    Of course, its really kind of incredible that the Cook Political Report continues to research politics, when all they really need to do is listen to your wisdom.

  13. #73
    Randolph Childress RJKarl's Avatar
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    Obama is up 7% in VA.

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by RJKarl View Post
    Obama is up 7% in VA.

    RJ, you know polls better than that. (1) this is a Registered Voters poll, not Likely Voters poll; (2) Margin of error on this particular poll is 4% +/- meaning the lead shown is within the margin of error.

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by bobknightfan View Post
    I think the consensus polling shows that Obama is ahead in every one of those 7 "tossup" states. Here is Real Clear Politics' numbers.....and I've always found RCP to be somewhat slanted toward the Republicans. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_Clear_Politics

    Pennsylvania: Romney vs. Obama
    Polling Data
    Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
    RCP Average 2/8 - 5/1 -- 46.0 39.0 Obama +7.0

    Ohio: Romney vs. Obama
    Polling Data
    Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
    RCP Average 4/15 - 5/1 -- 46.0 41.8 Obama +4.2

    Florida: Romney vs. Obama
    Polling Data
    Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
    RCP Average 4/12 - 5/1 -- 45.4 45.0 Obama +0.4

    Colorado: Romney vs. Obama
    Polling Data
    Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
    Purple Strategies 4/19 - 4/23 600 LV 47 47 Tie
    PPP (D) 4/5 - 4/7 542 RV 53 40 Obama +13

    Virginia: Romney vs. Obama
    Polling Data
    Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
    RCP Average 3/13 - 5/2 -- 47.5 44.3 Obama +3.2

    Iowa: Romney vs. Obama
    Polling Data
    Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
    RCP Average 10/7 - 2/15 -- 45.3 42.3 Obama +3.0

    Nevada: Romney vs. Obama
    Polling Data
    Poll Date Sample Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
    RCP Average 12/12 - 4/30 -- 49.7 42.3 Obama +7.4
    I'm interested to see May polling data. The most recent likely voter polls in the swing states have showed a steady tightening of the race-Colorado, Virginia, Florida, Ohio, etc. I think whatever May shows will stay pretty stagnant until the conventions.

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