ncsportsnut1
Member
- Joined
- Apr 4, 2011
- Messages
- 365
- Reaction score
- 9
Not exactly where I thought the race would be at this point. Romney is doing better earlier than expected. Most people, including myself, expected majority of polls to show Romney 5 points down at this point given the negativity of the primary season. If it had dragged on into June, still think would have hurt Romney more.
The President, after dismal approval ratings last fall, has stopped the freefall and approval numbers have improved slowly to a place where a case can be made he will be re-elected. A couple of the unanswered questions for his re-election at this point: Will his base, including blacks and younger voters, be as enthusiastic in 2012 as they were in 2008? Younger voters tend to be notoriously unreliable from one election to the next. The black voters have their own complaints with Obama, and while they will not vote for Romney, the question is what % of black voter turnout can be expected compared to 2008?
A lot of talk about Latino voters, but keep in mind the polling approval #s and other national polls are counting Latino voters too. Their support is already accounted for in those polls. Of course, their impact will be felt more in certain swing states, so will there be a huge turnout of Latino voters and will they vote in mass for Obama? Does Romney have opportunities there to increase support among Latino voters and cut into the Obama advantage there? I think he will try to do that, so will he be successful?
Obama has an equally large deficit with white male voters. It's not talked about as much as the Latino deficit etc., but white males make up a constituency as well and Obama has issues there.
Both Romney and Obama will have plenty of money from various sources and money won't end up being a deciding factor.
Romney faces Electoral College challenges. I think he probably needs to get to 52% of the popular vote to guarantee victory.
And lastly, as most would agree I think, it's all about the economy and the healthcare bill as it relates to economic freedom and the debt. If it does well in the 2nd quarter and seems to be swinging upwards, advantage Obama. If 2nd quarter #s aren't good, 3rd quarter improvements will be too late to help Obama.
Should be a great election for all of us political junkies!!
Obama Job Approval (Monthly)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date % Approve
01/20-31/2009 66
02/1-28/2009 64
03/1-31/2009 62
04/1-30/2009 63
05/1-31/2009 65
06/1-30/2009 61
07/1-31/2009 57
08/1-31/2009 53
09/1-30/2009 52
10/1-31/2009 53
11/1-30/2009 51
12/1-31/2009 50
01/1-31/2010 49
02/1-28/2010 50
03/1-31/2010 49
04/1-30/2010 48
05/1-31/2010 48
06/1-30/2010 46
07/1-31/2010 46
08/1-31/2010 44
09/1-30/2010 45
10/1-31/2010 45
11/1-30/2010 45
12/1-31/2010 46
01/1-31/2011 49
02/1-28/2011 47
03/1-31/2011 47
04/1-30/2011 44
05/1-31/2011 50
06/1-30/2011 46
07/1-31/2011 44
08/1-31/2011 41
09/1-30/2011 41
10/1-31/2011 41
11/1-30/2011 43
12/1-31/2011 43
01/1-31/2012 45
02/1-29/2012 45
03/1-31/2012 46
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOURCE: http://www.gallup.com/
Copyright (c) 2012 Gallup Inc. All rights reserved.
The President, after dismal approval ratings last fall, has stopped the freefall and approval numbers have improved slowly to a place where a case can be made he will be re-elected. A couple of the unanswered questions for his re-election at this point: Will his base, including blacks and younger voters, be as enthusiastic in 2012 as they were in 2008? Younger voters tend to be notoriously unreliable from one election to the next. The black voters have their own complaints with Obama, and while they will not vote for Romney, the question is what % of black voter turnout can be expected compared to 2008?
A lot of talk about Latino voters, but keep in mind the polling approval #s and other national polls are counting Latino voters too. Their support is already accounted for in those polls. Of course, their impact will be felt more in certain swing states, so will there be a huge turnout of Latino voters and will they vote in mass for Obama? Does Romney have opportunities there to increase support among Latino voters and cut into the Obama advantage there? I think he will try to do that, so will he be successful?
Obama has an equally large deficit with white male voters. It's not talked about as much as the Latino deficit etc., but white males make up a constituency as well and Obama has issues there.
Both Romney and Obama will have plenty of money from various sources and money won't end up being a deciding factor.
Romney faces Electoral College challenges. I think he probably needs to get to 52% of the popular vote to guarantee victory.
And lastly, as most would agree I think, it's all about the economy and the healthcare bill as it relates to economic freedom and the debt. If it does well in the 2nd quarter and seems to be swinging upwards, advantage Obama. If 2nd quarter #s aren't good, 3rd quarter improvements will be too late to help Obama.
Should be a great election for all of us political junkies!!
Obama Job Approval (Monthly)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Date % Approve
01/20-31/2009 66
02/1-28/2009 64
03/1-31/2009 62
04/1-30/2009 63
05/1-31/2009 65
06/1-30/2009 61
07/1-31/2009 57
08/1-31/2009 53
09/1-30/2009 52
10/1-31/2009 53
11/1-30/2009 51
12/1-31/2009 50
01/1-31/2010 49
02/1-28/2010 50
03/1-31/2010 49
04/1-30/2010 48
05/1-31/2010 48
06/1-30/2010 46
07/1-31/2010 46
08/1-31/2010 44
09/1-30/2010 45
10/1-31/2010 45
11/1-30/2010 45
12/1-31/2010 46
01/1-31/2011 49
02/1-28/2011 47
03/1-31/2011 47
04/1-30/2011 44
05/1-31/2011 50
06/1-30/2011 46
07/1-31/2011 44
08/1-31/2011 41
09/1-30/2011 41
10/1-31/2011 41
11/1-30/2011 43
12/1-31/2011 43
01/1-31/2012 45
02/1-29/2012 45
03/1-31/2012 46
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
SOURCE: http://www.gallup.com/
Copyright (c) 2012 Gallup Inc. All rights reserved.