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Official 2014-15 Charlotte Hornets Thread

Larger point was that he just isn't a spot up shooter. Dirk is one of the greatest players ever, I wasn't comparing the two... but that's just how you describe that shot now, which is a difficult shot but creates space for skilled shooters.

DraftExpress scouting report:

The area of McDermott's game that will translate most seamlessly to the NBA, right off the bat, without any questions asked, is his perimeter shooting ability. He has flawless shooting mechanics, deep release, and an incredibly quick release, to go along with deadly accuracy, as evidenced by his 49%, 49% and 45% 3-point shooting percentages the past three seasons. Catch and shoot, off the dribble, coming off a screen, you name it, McDermott can do it all from the perimeter. He knows how to create space, as he has multiple release points on his jumper and is as aggressive a scorer as you'll find, but still has impeccable shot-selection, often passing up good looks knowing he'll get better opportunities later in the shot-clock.

McDermott is more than just a one-dimensional shooter, as he gets his points in variety of ways, be it running the floor in transition, posting up thanks to his excellent footwork, driving to the basket with his left or right hand, or moving off the ball intelligently and diving to the paint with terrific timing. Only around 40% of McDermott's points in the half-court at the college level came off jumpers. He was surprisingly versatile with his ability to get to the free throw line and score inside the paint and from the mid-range as well. He converted a sky-high 67% of his attempts around the basket, so it will be very interesting to see how the non-shooting elements of his game translate to the NBA. He added new elements to his game every year in college, played with great intensity night in and night out, and should see even more things open up for him in the NBA with better teammates around him and less defensive attention.
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The bolded leads me to believe he won't have trouble getting off threes. He probably won't convert near the basket as much as he did in college though.
 
faxmachineanthem said:
McDermott scored 26.7 ppg on 53% FG and 45% 3PFG. Those are ridiculous numbers. Kyle Korver is the easy comparison, but going off college stats Korver was not in McDermott's league. And Korver is a good NBA player who would go in the top 10 if you redrafted the 2003 draft.
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This. McDermott is better than he's getting credit for. Big kid, well coached, sneaky athletic, an absolutely killer deep shooter (at a high volume), but also a well-rounded scorer from all over the floor. Put him next to other wings who can guard and cover (MKG and Henderson), a double-team-demanding post up big in Big Al, a drive-and-kick point guard in Kemba, and a coach who runs a solid, simple-to-follow defensive system (how many guys on last year's roster are, individually good defenders? 2? 3?) He's pretty much exactly what the Hornets need.

The ghost of Adam Morrison -- a non-comparable player, really, and an inferior shooter/scorer as well -- is killing him in the draft process. I just can't see how this guy doesn't have at minimum a Korver-like career. And the potential is there for a Paul Piece ceiling. I'm not in love or anything, but this would not be a bad pick IMO.
 
qcdeac said:
Agreed. I'll buy in if we take him.

Re: your comment in an earlier post that it "could be a smokescreen", I have never understood why pro sports execs leak who their top targets are. How does everyone knowing that we are eyeballing McDermoot help the team...unless it's a smokescreen?
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In this case, because the Hornets are picking 9th in a perceived 8-person top-tier draft, meaning that if someone were to sneak ahead of the Hornets and draft him, a blue-chip guy has to drop. So the risk is less. They may even went to encourage a trade up behind them.
 
I read somewhere that McDermott graded out as the 12th most athletic player at the combine. For comparison's sake, Rodney Hood was somewhere in the mid-20's.
 
ArlingtonDeac said:
This. McDermott is better than he's getting credit for. Big kid, well coached, sneaky athletic, an absolutely killer deep shooter (at a high volume), but also a well-rounded scorer from all over the floor. Put him next to other wings who can guard and cover (MKG and Henderson), a double-team-demanding post up big in Big Al, a drive-and-kick point guard in Kemba, and a coach who runs a solid, simple-to-follow defensive system (how many guys on last year's roster are, individually good defenders? 2? 3?) He's pretty much exactly what the Hornets need.

The ghost of Adam Morrison -- a non-comparable player, really, and an inferior shooter/scorer as well -- is killing him in the draft process. I just can't see how this guy doesn't have at minimum a Korver-like career. And the potential is there for a Paul Piece ceiling. I'm not in love or anything, but this would not be a bad pick IMO.
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*Ahem*

ArlingtonDeac said:
Interesting, Roll. Because I woke up this morning convinced that everyone is totally over-thinking Zeller, that he might end up as the best pro is this draft, and that the Horncats need to get him somehow. I think he'll develop a 20 footer and be extremely effective for a long time. Smart, winning-program pedigree, professional family, big, skilled, runs the floor, extremely high character, athletic. What's not to like? So he got rejected a bunch in college playing out of position at the 5. Move him to the 4 and let him use his athleticism and speed. What does Chris Bosh do that Cody Zeller can't develop? And his game would fit perfectly next to Biyombo as a stretch 4, better even than Len. I'm 90% sold on the idea. (Of course, if the Horncats draft any of the 6 top-tier guys, excepting Porter, I can see the argument for each as well. What a crazy draft.)

Bottom line, I think you can make a strong argument for Zeller being the 4th pick in this draft. I'm praying Oladipo slips by Orlando, so that the Cats can pull the trigger on that Minny trade and bag Williams, Zeller, and a shooter at 26.
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ArlingtonDeac said:
I think he can guard NBA 4s, excepting the occasional Z-Bo type. Her's got the foot speed and athleticism. Biyombo can definitely guard 5s next to him.

I agree about the corner 3, but I see Zeller stroking that shot in 2 years. His form is excellent. His brother already hits deep-ish jumpers pretty well, and Cody is much better. I think he's the guy that every lottery team in two years says, what were we thinking?
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ArlingtonDeac said:
Bosh is a "terrific" defender? I won't go that far. But you're right that I don't see Zeller as a 24/10 guy. I see him as a 17/8 guy. Which is just fine with the 4th pick in this draft, IMO.
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just no mcdermott

he's such a BOBCATS pick, we're the hornets now

no more mid-major white guys with limited upside
 
right, the hornets need a HIGH major white guy now!

call up the ghosts of rex chapman and get stauskas
 
OldGoldBeard said:
*Ahem*
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Thank god Zeller put together an excellent last two months of the season, finally showing all the things the Hornets drafted him for and saving my ass. He was great. He's going to be great next year. I think they made a very good pick.

ETA: I won't act like I wasn't worried around December, though. Phew.

ETA2: Rereading those posts, I stand by them in their entirety, which surprises even me.
 
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I would think the volume of McBuckets information leads to him not being the pic, no? Not like this front office is the best example, but it seems like playing with your cards on the table like this is pretty dumb.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
I would think the volume of McBuckets information leads to him not being the pic, no? Not like this front office is the best example, but it seems like playing with your cards on the table like this is pretty dumb.
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Cho has been a known to use misdirection before, and he goes with his analysis and doesn't care about the media noise. So it's definitely possible that McDermott is a smokescreen. But it also might be his guy, too.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
*Ahem*
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From ESPN Insider: Zeller Leads List of Future Breakout Stars

The San Antonio Spurs look unbeatable these days, both literally and figuratively. After steamrolling the no-longer-leading-the-East Indiana Pacers on the road on Monday, the Spurs have won 18 straight and put a stranglehold on the race for the NBA's best record. It's no small coincidence that the streak began on Feb. 26, the night Kawhi Leonard returned from a broken finger.

San Antonio is 50-9 when Leonard plays this season, a pace that translates to 69 wins over 82 games. Even that doesn't do justice to San Antonio's average margin of victory since Leonard returned: a whopping 16.6 points. Leonard's mere presence is part of the story, as he further solidified a rotation that was already functioning at a high level. But Leonard has provided more than presence; he's been one of the league's 20 best players since the All-Star break, and has posted a team-high 2.9 WARP during the streak.

Given Leonard's age (22) and terrific recent play, it's easy to mark him as a breakout candidate next season, in the way that Paul George has been for most of 2013-14. After all, Leonard merely needs to translate what he's been doing over a full campaign.

Is it really that straight forward? Almost without exception, looking at subsets of data is less reliable than looking at the larger sample. However, trends are to be found in those subsets. So it's fair to ask: Can we identify breakout candidates based on late-season improvement?

Forecasting breakouts

In general, the answer is no. The larger sample of a full season's worth of games has a much higher level of predictability than any subset of games. I looked at the last six years' worth of results and calculated post-All-Star WARP for every player who had at least 300 minutes played overall, 100 minutes after the break and 300 minutes the following season. Total season individual winning percentage has about a 7 percent higher correlation with the following season's performance than post-All-Star performance.

If you break that down further to look at players whose performance jumped by at least 5 percent, the correlations are even weaker. Overall performance was about 21 percent more reliable than the late-season figure. That suggests that for the most part, a player enjoying a markedly higher level of performance late in the season is going to regress toward his career norms when the next campaign rolls around.

However, there is an even smaller subset of players in which late breakouts seem to portend a strong uptick the following season: the young guys. In a nutshell, if a player is under 25 years old and has a post-All-Star winning percentage that is at least 5 percent higher than his season mark, he's about 67 percent likely to retain, or even expand upon, the improved percentage.

Armed with these figures, let's look at the players this season who meet our breakout criteria: They are under 25, and have upped their performance since the All-Star break by at least 5 percent.


1. Cody Zeller

Post-All-Star-break improvement percentage: 17.5 | Age: 22

Zeller's translated college performance had me touting him as a Rookie of the Year candidate, but he struggled for most of the season. He's lived up to the billing of late, ranking second in post-All-Star WARP to a player a couple of spots down on the list. His playing time hasn't changed, but his true shooting percentage has jumped from .445 to .588.


2. Tobias Harris

Improvement percentage: 12.0 | Age: 22

Harris has become more efficient over the course of this season, with a .594 true shooting percentage over his last 20 games.


3. Gorgui Dieng

Improvement percentage: 10.4 | Age: 24

Dieng leads all rookies in WARP since the All-Star break as his playing time has increased due to the absence of Nikola Pekovic. He's averaged 12.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and shot 59.2 percent as a starter.


4. Kawhi Leonard

Improvement percentage: 9.2 | Age: 23

Leonard has upped his individual winning percentage to .692 since the break, improving his season mark to .600. Only Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis have posted a higher percentage for the season than Leonard has over the last five weeks. Further, he has shot 48.2 percent from deep over his last 18 games -- all of which the Spurs have won.


5. Ryan Kelly

Improvement percentage: 8.0 | Age: 23

Kelly is turning out to be one of the steals of the draft, and has ranked third in rookie WARP since the break.


6. Kyle O'Quinn

Improvement percentage: 6.8 | Age: 24

O'Quinn has sneakily become an efficient bench player, and occasional starter, as his playing time has become more consistent.


7. Kelly Olynyk

Improvement percentage: 6.8 | Age: 23

Olynyk has a fine .573 true shooting percentage on an above-average volume since the break, and has averaged 16.3 points per 36 minutes during that stretch.

8. Derrick Favors

Improvement percentage: 6.7 | Age: 23

Favors' improvement as a pro has been gradual, but his recent play suggests he's ready to jump to a higher plateau. And in good news for Jazz fans, Utah has been less terrible lately when Favors and Enes Kanter share the floor.


9. Terrence Ross

Improvement percentage: 6.3 | Age: 23

Ross has posted above-average true shooting percentages in every month since taking over for Rudy Gay, and with his tremendous raw athleticism, he looks like a player who can do more. His recent play suggests he is ready to do so.


10. Evan Fournier

Improvement percentage: 6.0 | Age: 21

Fournier has been a personal favorite for a while, though his overall performance still isn't starter-worthy. His recent uptick tells me his time is coming.


11. Dion Waiters

Improvement percentage: 5.5 | Age: 22

Waiters has flourished with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup, averaging 22 points over eight games as a starter, though he's proved to be a little too tilted toward volume as opposed to efficiency.

Morris

12. Markieff Morris

Improvement percentage: 5.1 | Age: 25

No player has logged more minutes as a reserve. Morris has averaged 16.7 points on a sterling .617 true shooting percentage since the break, all off the bench. Phoenix has outscored opponents with him on the floor in 16 of his last 23 outings.
 
Our drafting history has most def been abysmal. But I would argue that our "production" picks (Zeller, Kemba) have fared better for us than our "potential" picks (MKG, Biyombo). So I'm not against drafting college production over possible potential. Particularly now that we're not one of the worst teams in the history of professional basketball and could legitimately move up the Eastern ladder next year with some good role players.
 
ArlingtonDeac said:
From ESPN Insider: Zeller Leads List of Future Breakout Stars

The San Antonio Spurs look unbeatable these days, both literally and figuratively. After steamrolling the no-longer-leading-the-East Indiana Pacers on the road on Monday, the Spurs have won 18 straight and put a stranglehold on the race for the NBA's best record. It's no small coincidence that the streak began on Feb. 26, the night Kawhi Leonard returned from a broken finger.

San Antonio is 50-9 when Leonard plays this season, a pace that translates to 69 wins over 82 games. Even that doesn't do justice to San Antonio's average margin of victory since Leonard returned: a whopping 16.6 points. Leonard's mere presence is part of the story, as he further solidified a rotation that was already functioning at a high level. But Leonard has provided more than presence; he's been one of the league's 20 best players since the All-Star break, and has posted a team-high 2.9 WARP during the streak.

Given Leonard's age (22) and terrific recent play, it's easy to mark him as a breakout candidate next season, in the way that Paul George has been for most of 2013-14. After all, Leonard merely needs to translate what he's been doing over a full campaign.

Is it really that straight forward? Almost without exception, looking at subsets of data is less reliable than looking at the larger sample. However, trends are to be found in those subsets. So it's fair to ask: Can we identify breakout candidates based on late-season improvement?

Forecasting breakouts

In general, the answer is no. The larger sample of a full season's worth of games has a much higher level of predictability than any subset of games. I looked at the last six years' worth of results and calculated post-All-Star WARP for every player who had at least 300 minutes played overall, 100 minutes after the break and 300 minutes the following season. Total season individual winning percentage has about a 7 percent higher correlation with the following season's performance than post-All-Star performance.

If you break that down further to look at players whose performance jumped by at least 5 percent, the correlations are even weaker. Overall performance was about 21 percent more reliable than the late-season figure. That suggests that for the most part, a player enjoying a markedly higher level of performance late in the season is going to regress toward his career norms when the next campaign rolls around.

However, there is an even smaller subset of players in which late breakouts seem to portend a strong uptick the following season: the young guys. In a nutshell, if a player is under 25 years old and has a post-All-Star winning percentage that is at least 5 percent higher than his season mark, he's about 67 percent likely to retain, or even expand upon, the improved percentage.

Armed with these figures, let's look at the players this season who meet our breakout criteria: They are under 25, and have upped their performance since the All-Star break by at least 5 percent.


1. Cody Zeller

Post-All-Star-break improvement percentage: 17.5 | Age: 22

Zeller's translated college performance had me touting him as a Rookie of the Year candidate, but he struggled for most of the season. He's lived up to the billing of late, ranking second in post-All-Star WARP to a player a couple of spots down on the list. His playing time hasn't changed, but his true shooting percentage has jumped from .445 to .588.


2. Tobias Harris

Improvement percentage: 12.0 | Age: 22

Harris has become more efficient over the course of this season, with a .594 true shooting percentage over his last 20 games.


3. Gorgui Dieng

Improvement percentage: 10.4 | Age: 24

Dieng leads all rookies in WARP since the All-Star break as his playing time has increased due to the absence of Nikola Pekovic. He's averaged 12.7 points, 14.0 rebounds and shot 59.2 percent as a starter.


4. Kawhi Leonard

Improvement percentage: 9.2 | Age: 23

Leonard has upped his individual winning percentage to .692 since the break, improving his season mark to .600. Only Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Anthony Davis have posted a higher percentage for the season than Leonard has over the last five weeks. Further, he has shot 48.2 percent from deep over his last 18 games -- all of which the Spurs have won.


5. Ryan Kelly

Improvement percentage: 8.0 | Age: 23

Kelly is turning out to be one of the steals of the draft, and has ranked third in rookie WARP since the break.


6. Kyle O'Quinn

Improvement percentage: 6.8 | Age: 24

O'Quinn has sneakily become an efficient bench player, and occasional starter, as his playing time has become more consistent.


7. Kelly Olynyk

Improvement percentage: 6.8 | Age: 23

Olynyk has a fine .573 true shooting percentage on an above-average volume since the break, and has averaged 16.3 points per 36 minutes during that stretch.

8. Derrick Favors

Improvement percentage: 6.7 | Age: 23

Favors' improvement as a pro has been gradual, but his recent play suggests he's ready to jump to a higher plateau. And in good news for Jazz fans, Utah has been less terrible lately when Favors and Enes Kanter share the floor.


9. Terrence Ross

Improvement percentage: 6.3 | Age: 23

Ross has posted above-average true shooting percentages in every month since taking over for Rudy Gay, and with his tremendous raw athleticism, he looks like a player who can do more. His recent play suggests he is ready to do so.


10. Evan Fournier

Improvement percentage: 6.0 | Age: 21

Fournier has been a personal favorite for a while, though his overall performance still isn't starter-worthy. His recent uptick tells me his time is coming.


11. Dion Waiters

Improvement percentage: 5.5 | Age: 22

Waiters has flourished with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup, averaging 22 points over eight games as a starter, though he's proved to be a little too tilted toward volume as opposed to efficiency.

Morris

12. Markieff Morris

Improvement percentage: 5.1 | Age: 25

No player has logged more minutes as a reserve. Morris has averaged 16.7 points on a sterling .617 true shooting percentage since the break, all off the bench. Phoenix has outscored opponents with him on the floor in 16 of his last 23 outings.
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I have some problems with any metric that ranks Zeller ahead of Kawhi Leonard.
 
RollWave35 said:
Our drafting history has most def been abysmal. But I would argue that our "production" picks (Zeller, Kemba) have fared better for us than our "potential" picks (MKG, Biyombo). So I'm not against drafting college production over possible potential. Particularly now that we're not one of the worst teams in the history of professional basketball and could legitimately move up the Eastern ladder next year with some good role players.
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Which is why we're in a good spot with the 9th pick in this draft. It's the area of the lottery where our needs meet the right draft-pick value, and the choices are all big-time college performers. Stauskas. McDermott. Harris. All are solid choices at 9, with very good college numbers, who fill a big need.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
I have some problems with any metric that ranks Zeller ahead of Kawhi Leonard.
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Keep in mind this charts WARP improvement over the course of a season, not overall WARP value. And if you watched Zeller struggle at the beginning of the year so badly, then saw the very good player he was in March and April, you'd have not trouble believing he was the most improved. But he's not better than Kawhi, obviously. But Zeller haters must've missed the second act of the season. I'm very excited to see him with more confidence, and more muscle, next season.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
I have some problems with any metric that ranks Zeller ahead of Kawhi Leonard.
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It's just improvement from pre All Star to post All Star. Zeller was the worst player you'll ever see pre All Star so of course he had the biggest opportunity for improvement.
 
excited for ZELLER to return MY HORNETS to greatness

#betterthankawhi
 
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