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Breeders Cup Today -Rain changing races

RJKarl

RJKarl

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The Olympics of horse racing returns to Santa Anita Friday and Saturday. It was there ;last year as well

Sadly, the great Wise Dan won't get a chance to win his third straight Mile and third straight Horse of Year. Trainer Charlie LoPresti his class and true love for his horse by not running him. The horse was all heart and ran beautifully.

Fans will miss seeing a legend. Bettors lose a free spot in the guaranteed $3M Pick 4 pool races. That race is now a dart board.

When the draw comes out, I'll say more. Friday's races are rarely as good as Saturday's. The most likely winner over the two days is running Friday- Goldenscents. He won the Dirt Mile last year at Santa Anita and has been running lights out ever since.

European horses typically win the turf races. The one exception is my favorite race any time it's run at Santa Anita. They run a race at approximately 6.5 furlong on the turf and down a hill. It's wild. For the Breeders Cup, they run the Turf Sprint on that course. Reneesgotzip was second last year and loves this race.Home run Kitten is a little cheaper than these but has won twice on this course.

Santa Anita has historically been a speed favoring track on the dirt.
 
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Is it ok to root for horses you don't "invest" money in or is that a total asshole move?
 
If you have to ask the question, you won't understand the answer.
 
I will actively be rooting for rj to lose every bet he makes
 
Wise Dan missing out is definitely a huge blow.

I also think Bayern should be running against Goldencents in the mile.

Really bummed Palace Malice is out of the Classic. That's a special horse, and with him out, I think it's a battle of the 3 year olds....but it sure would have been fun to see him in it against this group of 3 year olds...
 
I agree with you about Bayern. He will guarantee a fast time in the Classic.

As I post about the BC on the internet, there is much sad irony. The BC was the brainchild of people at Hollywood Park to infuse interest in racing. The first BC was at Hollywood Park. In 1984 when the first BC was run at HP, no one could have imagined the massive handle (amount bet) that will happen Friday and Saturday. They also would never have imagined the closing of HP and other tracks when their handles are up so hugely. The internet did this. Well internet gambling did.

Although tracks are taking more bets than ever before and purses are bigger than ever, many fewer people are going to tracks around the country than ever before. Whereas, mid-week at HP or Santa Anita would draw 7-10,000 people, it now draws 3-5000 on a good day, because you can bet every track in the country of your living room. There were often days at HP that drew 2000 or less. The loss in ticket, program, concessions revenues made keeping the gigantic facility open a bad business decision in spite of having record handles.

The only way it seems tracks will flourish in the US in the future is to do what facilities in Philly and even in Erie and WVA have done. They got state legislatures to allow slot machines and sometimes even card rooms at the tracks.

Companiesl ike TVG, Xpressbet and Twin Spires may have to build boutique racetracks with theater or basketball/hockey sized arenas if casinos aren't allowed to be part of the venues.
 
RJKarl said:
I agree with you about Bayern. He will guarantee a fast time in the Classic.

As I post about the BC on the internet, there is much sad irony. The BC was the brainchild of people at Hollywood Park to infuse interest in racing. The first BC was at Hollywood Park. In 1984 when the first BC was run at HP, no one could have imagined the massive handle (amount bet) that will happen Friday and Saturday. They also would never have imagined the closing of HP and other tracks when their handles are up so hugely. The internet did this. Well internet gambling did.

Although tracks are taking more bets than ever before and purses are bigger than ever, many fewer people are going to tracks around the country than ever before. Whereas, mid-week at HP or Santa Anita would draw 7-10,000 people, it now draws 3-5000 on a good day, because you can bet every track in the country of your living room. There were often days at HP that drew 2000 or less. The loss in ticket, program, concessions revenues made keeping the gigantic facility open a bad business decision in spite of having record handles.

The only way it seems tracks will flourish in the US in the future is to do what facilities in Philly and even in Erie and WVA have done. They got state legislatures to allow slot machines and sometimes even card rooms at the tracks.

Companiesl ike TVG, Xpressbet and Twin Spires may have to build boutique racetracks with theater or basketball/hockey sized arenas if casinos aren't allowed to be part of the venues.
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Yeah, degenerate gamblers should definitely be given more opportunity to gamble.
 
Here's a $60 Pick 4 for Friday:

It's $0.50 bet

Race 7 -Dirt Mile - 1, 9
Race 8- Juv F&M Turf- 2/3/4/6/11/14
Race 9 Distaff - 10/11
Race 10 - just a race - 2/4/6/7/8

In the Dirt mile - Goldenscents (#1) will be Even money or less. Tapiture is the only horse that really has a chance to beat him -The second choice Fed Biz has lost to Goldenscents by 4 1/2 and 11 lengths the two times they faced each other. The 11 length loss was last year at Santa Anita in this exact race.

The Juvenile Fillies Turf is tough to pick. They haven't really raced each other or been in many races. I may or may not bet it tomorrow.

The Distaff looks like Untapable (10) wins by daylight. I may change my bet tomorrow and take Don't Tell Sophia (#7) over Close Hatches (#11). I will probably be an Untapable. DTS exacta box and may fill it out with Close Hatches.
 
RJKarl said:
Here's a $60 Pick 4 for Friday:

It's $0.50 bet

Race 7 -Dirt Mile - 1, 9
Race 8- Juv F&M Turf- 2/3/4/6/11/14
Race 9 Distaff - 10/11
Race 10 - just a race - 2/4/6/7/8

In the Dirt mile - Goldenscents (#1) will be Even money or less. Tapiture is the only horse that really has a chance to beat him -The second choice Fed Biz has lost to Goldenscents by 4 1/2 and 11 lengths the two times they faced each other. The 11 length loss was last year at Santa Anita in this exact race.

The Juvenile Fillies Turf is tough to pick. They haven't really raced each other or been in many races. I may or may not bet it tomorrow.

The Distaff looks like Untapable (10) wins by daylight. I may change my bet tomorrow and take Don't Tell Sophia (#7) over Close Hatches (#11). I will probably be an Untapable. DTS exacta box and may fill it out with Close Hatches.
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Damn, that's a real solid looking pick 4. Agree with you on Tapiture and Goldencents. I think the Distaff is Untapable and Don't Tell Sophia. I might add Tiz Midnight, or just use a W/P/S on her. I like that horse.
 
I'm thinking about adding Don't Tell Sophia. That would make the ticket $90.

That's all I'll be betting on Friday along with the Distaff bets.

I'm also considering singling Goldenscents. What gives value is the 10th.
 
NOTE THE CHANGE

Here's an Early Pick 4 for Saturday. It starts with Juvenile Fillies - Race 4:

Race 4 - 2/4/8/11
Race 5 - 2/5/10 (may replace 5 with 3)
Race 6 - 1/5/6/7
Race 7 - 1/5/10 (this is a specialty race- could the the big price)

$72
 
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RJKarl said:
Although tracks are taking more bets than ever before and purses are bigger than ever, many fewer people are going to tracks around the country than ever before.
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i.e. No one actually gives a damn about horses and racing, just gambling.
 
I actually single Goldenscents. The Pick 4 paid a whole $45.25 for the $5 investment.

The Goldenscents/Tapiture exacta paid $35.50 for a $5 box. Netter $25.50 profit.

I did bet Don't Tell Sophia to WP netted a $3 profit. The $5 Untapable/DTS exacta paid $67.50 for a $49.50 profit for the $5 box and a $2 box of U/Close Hatches and DTS/CH.

Didn't bet much but did win a little.
 
RACE 7 – Turf Sprint

This is a race layout that doesn't exist anywhere in the world other than Santa Anita. The last two the BC was here, this exacta was two SA horses each time. All three of these horse love this specific race.

EXACTA BOX- 1/5/10 – Pick the amount $2=12 bet $5=$30 bet (I’d go with this)- This should pay $75-300 for a $2 bet ($175-750 for a $5 bet)

$5 WP on #5
$5 WP #10

Normally I wouldn’t do this but both of them will be well over 10-1

Race 9 Turf

$5 WP #4

$4 Exacta box ¼

RACE 10 – Sprint

$10 WP # 6 Tapestry

$3 Exacta Box – 4/6/13 Plus $3 box 6 - 8

Race 11- Mile

Longshot play $5 WP # 6 Tom’s Tribute
$2 exacta 5/6/9

Race 12 – The Classic

I really hate betting on Shared Belief because Jim Rome is such a dick and owns him.
 
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There's a common mistake people who go to the track semi-regularly or rarely make. When they see that a jockey has ridden two of the horses in the race, they automatically think the rider picks horse he/she thinks is better. On a daily basis, this is only a small part of the jockey's choice.

Sometimes the jockey's agent has a "first call"deal with a trainer or owner. This is big. It means any time the trainer or owner has a horse running he calls that jockey first. This gets the jockey a lot of rides. Sometimes, the owner or trainer tells the jockey "if you ride this horse". I'll give a stakes race. There are lots of reasons.

On days like today, many of the reasons evaporate. It's more up to the jockey. You can read a small amount into a jockey choosing one horse over another. The bad news is if the new jockey has never ridden the horse he might do as well. The good news is you aren't going from a Hall of Famer to a journeyman. The replacement will be a superstar.

In summary, don't put a lot into a jockey change, but it's not unreasonable to put a little into it. If two horses are equal in your eyes and one has a regular rider vs. a substitute. you can take the regular one.
 
It rained last night and a bit today.

The first two races of the day were down the hill like the Turf Sprint and were taken off the turf and put on the dirt. If this continues and the Turf Sprint is off the hill, those bets will not be made.

It's raining hard right now at Santa Anita. It may off and on like it has been down here this morning.
 
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