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Republicans for POTUS, 2016 Edition

He just doesn't care. It can't hurt him in the primary, and he can't win the general unless Clinton is indicted. So it really doesn't matter what he says. As long as he doesn't praise the President, BLM, Muslims, or Mexicans, his poll numbers will stay solid.
 
Cruz and Rubio are probably best positioned right now. If Trump holds on, Cruz may be the VP nominee. Cruz has a good shot at winning Iowa with Carson imploding. Cruz really hasn't been vetted yet and Trump will turn on him if he starts winning or beating Trump. Cruz really is a strange guy and won't hold up well to additional scrutiny.

GOP base doesn't love Rubio, but he's a bad match up for Hillary and Florida is key for both parties. Rubio's already taken fire from both Trump and Jeb and his numbers are still pretty strong.

Cruz has a lot of money and the primary calendar sets up well for him. Establishment GOP hates Cruz almost as much as they hate Trump and Carson. May boil down to how much damage the establishment GOP can do to Cruz while keeping Rubio propped up.
 
How many GOP primaries are winner take all vs giving candidates individual delegates?

Should HRC eventually turn on Obama, she'll use Rubio's age against him and Obama as an example. She may have to tell Barrack up front she might have to say some bad things about him but she doesn't really mean it to secure POTUS.
 
That would be a huge mistake, the same one Democrats have made in the midterms. They need Barack, Michelle, and Joe out motivating the Obama coalition. They need to be focused on turnout more than turning Independents likely to vote Republican anyway.
 
Any part of a GOP ticket that includes Trump, Carson, or Cruz will turn out the Obama coalition for Hillary. GOP is so quantitatively challenged and myopic that they believe they can win a national election with a "pure" conservative ticket. May finally get a chance to prove their pet theory. Rubio would have to move left on both immigration and abortion for the general election, which would piss off the base.
 
DeacWatcher said:
How many GOP primaries are winner take all vs giving candidates individual delegates?

Should HRC eventually turn on Obama, she'll use Rubio's age against him and Obama as an example. She may have to tell Barrack up front she might have to say some bad things about him but she doesn't really mean it to secure POTUS.
Click to expand...

That would be a mind-boggingly stupid decision for Hillary and her camp to make.
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...aign-seems-to-compare-donald-trump-to-hitler/

Kasich going after Trump directly. Trump has 30% GOP support now and there's a question how much more it can grow when the field narrows. Cruz will inherit Carson's support and that may put him over the top in Iowa. Trump still has a huge lead in NH. GOP may not universally love Trump, but don't think they'll view comparisons to Hitler all that well either.

Rubio/Kasich would be a strong ticket, but Cruz, Trump, or Carson would never pick an establishment 'Pub even if it united a very fractured and dsyfunctional party.
 
FuckmouthedRube said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...aign-seems-to-compare-donald-trump-to-hitler/

Kasich going after Trump directly. Trump has 30% GOP support now and there's a question how much more it can grow when the field narrows. Cruz will inherit Carson's support and that may put him over the top in Iowa. Trump still has a huge lead in NH. GOP may not universally love Trump, but don't think they'll view comparisons to Hitler all that well either.

Rubio/Kasich would be a strong ticket, but Cruz, Trump, or Carson would never pick an establishment 'Pub even if it united a very fractured and dsyfunctional party.
Click to expand...

More:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015...ump-idUSKBN0TB0UJ20151122#qq0ek27ItdkdsaKS.97

Here's the first attack ad:
 
WFFaithful said:
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-...rsity-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2305

Cruz leading in Iowa
Click to expand...

That's not exactly bad news. Trump goes after anyone he perceives as a threat. Can't stand Trump and Carson, but Cruz is horrible too. Huckabee and Santorum don't have a chance, but a damaged Cruz could clear a path for Rubio. Jeb, Christie, and Kasich are hated by the base and probably too far back.

HRC should invest some time in tearing down Rubio since he's her biggest general election threat. If Rubio can survive getting trashed by Trump, Jeb, Cruz, and HRC, he'll be bullet proof enough to win.
 
Pantsuit Pinocchio is hardly Miss Congeniality, but Cruz is extremely contrived and strange. He'll make Gore look like Clooney and Mitt look like James Bond. If he gains footage post-Iowa, it won't be pretty. Establishment GOP hates Cruz as much as Dems do.
 
I still think Cruz stock, for purposes of getting the nomination, is currently undervalued. That article just reinforces that belief. All of the GOP front runners are circus freaks. Cruz, as disgusting as I find him, is the only one of substance out of Carson, Trump, Rubio and Cruz.

I know that Rubio is theoretically a strong candidate, but I just don't think there is any way he can hold up - if he can ever become a true front runner. The establishment really prefers Bush, but I think it acknowledges that Bush cannot win, and on paper, Rubio is "the guy". I just don't think the establishment thinks he passes the eye test, and I don't think they will firmly rally behind him.

If the establishment wants to play the long game like Cruz always does, they should let one of the crazies get the nomination, and get crushed in the general, and then try to go out and reform the Republican Party, casting aside the crazies, and figuring out how to get independents and moderate democrats to come back to their party. Hope the economy sputters in Hillary's first term, come with a message of "the crazies are gone", and try to win in 2020 and beyond.

That, or just say "fuck it" with respect to the Presidency, and focus on Congress and state legislatures.
 
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