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Official 2015 Omnibus Fantasy Football Thread

PaddyWF said:
Interesting. So you assigned each player a value based on a traditional player rating sheet... then drafted the best available? Like Peterson 35, Lynch 34, Charles 33... etc? Don't know if I'm reading you correctly.

Was this something you created yourself or based off some master list?
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Used season projections to predict fantasy points per player. Then found out each player's value relative to the value of the estimated last starter in the league. For QB, Andrew Luck is projected to score 342 points. Alex Smith is the 20th projected QB at 241 points so I marked him as replacement value, and Luck's VORP then becomes 101 points.

For TE, Gronk is projected 207 while Larry Donnell is 101, giving Gronk a VORP of 106. For DST, Seattle had a VORP of 40 which is comparable to Andre Johnson (40) and Latavius Murray (39).

It was a little more difficult with WR and RB because of the flex position but I used Flex projections to get an idea of approximately how many of each position would be starting. Based off projections, 15 RBs and 25 WRs should be starting the flex positions, and 20 of each in the RB and WR positions, so I used RB35 and WR45 as the replacement level players.

This gave me a list of every player at every position and I could then easily draft down that list. Shows why I reached placed importance on grabbing a QB, TE, and DST so early.
 
VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player, assigns a number to each player which is their value minus the value of the last player in their position. In a 10 team league that starts 1 QB, each QB's number would be their points minus the #10 QB's points. VONA is similar, but it compared Value Over Next Available (ie, the next position player in the list). These are types of Value Based Drafting strategies. These systems are great in that they assign a single number to all the players and you can compare players across positions. It's a good way to draft a good team. It is hard to make an egregious error. Its weakness is that it is based on either historical data, which is a weak indicator of this season's performances, or based on projections, which are either too reliant on historical data or numbers pulled out of some guy's arse (or you could pull your own numbers out your own arse). VORP would not have told you last year that Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, or Demarco Murray would have breakout seasons. Your FFL champions probably had some combination of these guys on their team. But it is a good system to finish in the top half of your league if no one else VORPs, and maybe you can luck into, or predict, some breakout players to go win it all.
 
Great explanation, thanks. I understood the basic concept but wasn't sure exactly how value was assigned.

I'm definitely going to give this a shot this year. Done a couple mocks with it and very happy with results. But prob still worth taking a flyer or two on high potential players that wouldn't show up well as well like amari cooper, gurley, yeldon etc.
 
The thing with what awaken posted is it goes with the assumption you can only use historical data. You can very easily do the same thing if you use projections for this year. The difficulty is in deciding what a replacement level player is for each position. If you want true replacement level meaning you can grab them off waivers, then you can use ownership percentages. However, I think it's more valuable to use a Value over Starter or a similar methodology that provides more relevance to drafting guys who would be starting for you.
 
I just cannot fathom putting that much work/thought into a fantasy draft. That just all seems so complicated to me. God bless you guys for being able to do all that -- seriously, I'm impressed.
 
deacvision7 said:
I just cannot fathom putting that much work/thought into a fantasy draft. That just all seems so complicated to me. God bless you guys for being able to do all that -- seriously, I'm impressed.
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Yeah, at some level, FFB stops being fun and starts becoming a job.
 
Tyler Lockett with his second return for TD this preseason. This is the guy I wanted for Carolina instead of Funchess, but for fantasy purposes, those owning the Seattle DST are going to love this guy.
 
3 drafts in and Davante Adams is my WR2 in every league
 
Depends on how deep your benches are - both are boom or bust WR3, Perriman is more worth a shot than Quick - I would probably take Perriman as a WR4/WR5 because of his opportunity with no other significant WR in baltimore besides smith, I likely wouldn't take Quick unless it is a deep league - he has a shot to put up decent numbers, but is more a waiver-wire guy.
 
Strickland33 said:
Who would y'all take with the top pick?
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Any one of Lacy/Bell/Peterson.

Little reluctant on Bell because of the suspension, little reluctant on Peterson because of the time off, I have taken Lacy and Peterson in the two drafts I've gone #1.
 
BostonDeac said:
are perriman or quick worth owning in a 12 team non-ppr league?
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Obviously I'm a Quick homer but the FF stats were on his side last season before his season ending injury. Was the #20 WR in FF before going down, and that was with Austin Davis as his QB.
 
Depends on depth. If Kelce would be your starter, and Ellington is backup; then yes.
 
Also depends on your TE for that trade - Kelce is a top 5 TE, but hes not going to be more than 2ish PPG better than the 6-12 TEs.

But, overall Ellington for Kelce is equal value - but make sure you aren't depleting your RB group for 2 PPG.
 
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