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Decision Analysis: 4th and 1 at FSU 6, Down 11, 4 minutes Remaining

The WP increases from 4% because of the relatively unlikely event of actually getting the ball back.
 
Something must be weird in their algorithm. It's saying 22% chance of a TD and a win 13% of the time. In other words, winning the game more than half the time you get a TD in that scenario. That's obviously ridiculous.
 
tiltdeac said:
Something must be weird in their algorithm. It's saying 22% chance of a TD and a win 13% of the time. In other words, winning the game more than half the time you get a TD in that scenario. That's obviously ridiculous.
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Are you saying it's ridiculously low or ridiculously high?
 
it's high because you still have to get the 2 point conversion and win in OT
 
If that had been 4th and 1 from say the 20 yard line, then I say yeah kick the field goal and go ahead and get the 3 and then try to get the ball back and get the TD. However, 4th and 1 from the 6 yard line was just too good an opportunity to try to get the first and get the TD we had to have against a good defense and then try to get the ball back and get the FG.
 
also, i guess this calculator is for NFL sudden death overtime... not CFB, which is significant
 
maybe the calculator is garbage.

even if you are extremely optimistic and say there's a 50% chance of both winning an OT game and successfully converting a 2-point conversion, a 13% WP says that you'd get into the end-zone in that scenario over 50% of the time.
 
The reason the numbers are higher when using nationwide data is that I greatly lowered every WFU input to account for the fact we aren't very good and FSU has a good defense.

Like the nationwide avg on 4th and 1, two point conversion, overtime win percentage ..... They would be way higher if the teams were equal.

But it doesn't really matter, with any strength team kicking a FG is going to be worse.
 
PhDeac said:
Are you saying it's ridiculously low or ridiculously high?
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Ridiculously high. The vast majority of the wins under those circumstances would require getting the two point conversion (<50%) and then winning in overtime (well less than 50%). You could quibble over the exact percentages, but that combination is no where close to 50%. And the other fluky wins in the distribution can't be high enough to make up the difference.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
also, i guess this calculator is for NFL sudden death overtime... not CFB, which is significant
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I'm not sure. There may be a tie probability in mixed in there. You can't tell just using the offensive situation.

tilt, I think it's high as well, but that may be because it doesn't include an OT scenario.
 
Here are the WP on another situation we've mentioned. Whether or not a team should kick a FG or go for it on 4th and short up 3.

WP with 2:00 left
Down 3 ball on opp 20 - 17%
Down 6 ball on opp 20 - 20%

Forcing teams to score a TD to win makes it more likely they'll score a TD to win. It's better to fail to convert 4th down than to kick a FG with field position equal. Unless you're outside of the 28 yard line, go for it.

By the way, if you're up 4, the best call is to kick the FG (13%).
 
bobknightfan said:
This entire thread is ridiculous. It's just a bunch of guys bragging about how smart they are with statistics. The most ridiculous thing, though, is just arbitrarily throwing out a bunch of completely made-up percentages for multiple variables and then thinking that the result they get has any valid meaning.
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All big decisions are made by coming up with estimated inputs and doing math. Do we buy this company for 5 billion? Hmm well let's best estimate the free cash flows and make up a discount rate and see what we get.

I guess that's just pointless though since the you can't know the real numbers and there are lots of things that can happen!!!
 
I just googled "Win Probability Calculator" and that's what came up. I tried a Pro Football Reference one and it didn't work. The guy that created that site/calculator works for ESPN analytics now and hasn't done anything on there in a year.
 
DCDeac said:
Hardly anyone is arguing against statistics here. I mean, the FckVwls take is interesting and I think the statistical analysis is interesting, otherwise people wouldn't be posting on the thread. That being said, it's taken a turn towards everyone trying to "prove" they're right so it's a dead argument. You're talking about a sub 5% outcome analysis involving a very heavy reduction of possibilities and variables. It's going to be very prone to error. Grasping at a percentage point here and there and labeling it "proof" is laughable on either side.
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Ding Ding...we have a winner. I am certainly not arguing with using statistics. I would argue against your valuations and therefore your outcomes. Mr. Wonderful would have a problem with your numbers and would squash your argument like the cockroach that it is.
 
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bobknightfan said:
This entire thread is ridiculous. It's just a bunch of guys bragging about how smart they are with statistics. The most ridiculous thing, though, is just arbitrarily throwing out a bunch of completely made-up percentages for multiple variables and then thinking that the result they get has any valid meaning.
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They aren't made up percentages. They are REAL percentages based on historical data...that's why they call it a Win PROBABILITY Calculator...not a Win GUARANTEE. BKF, you continue to be the biggest tool on this board.
 
MrBojangles said:
I still want to know why we didn't kick an onside kick ...
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Either way we went, people would 2nd guess. Especially if we didn't make the freaking 1st down. We got the FG and got the ball back and had the chance to win. We just threw an int. I go with what he did. They do that all the time in the NFL because you need 2 scores and we got the first score.
 
Wrangor said:
Ding Ding...we have a winner. I am certainly not arguing with using statistics. I would argue against your valuations and therefore your outcomes. Mr. Wonderful would have a problem with your numbers and would squash your argument like the cockroach that it is.
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Then just fill out the form with blanks I posted a few pages back. It will take you 2 minutes. It isn't very useful to just lob in opinions that the inputs are bad without offering your own set.
 
FckVwls said:
Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:

WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________

Get 3 and out on Defense after kicking off Percentage: _____________
Drive for a TD 70 yards, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ___________
Drive for TD 70 yards, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________

Overtime win Percentage against FSU: _____________

Please just fill in the blanks and I will crunch the math for anyone.
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Forgive me if someone has already asked this, but how does this account for the fact that FSU is likely to be more aggressive on offense once they get the ball back if up only 3 as opposed to up 8?
 
Junebug said:
Forgive me if someone has already asked this, but how does this account for the fact that FSU is likely to be more aggressive on offense once they get the ball back if up only 3 as opposed to up 8?
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FSU is trying to run the clock out in the same manner in both cases. Went run/run/pass. There is no reason to think FSU play calling should or would be materially different up by 8 or up by 3 in that spot.

If you think they would throw on early downs up 3 but not up 8, then I suppose they might convert a bit more. But we would also get the ball back in better clock position on our stops. There is a reason teams run a lot when leading.
 
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