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Decision Analysis: 4th and 1 at FSU 6, Down 11, 4 minutes Remaining

Junebug said:
Forgive me if someone has already asked this, but how does this account for the fact that FSU is likely to be more aggressive on offense once they get the ball back if up only 3 as opposed to up 8?
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That could be good or it could be bad.
 
Junebug said:
Forgive me if someone has already asked this, but how does this account for the fact that FSU is likely to be more aggressive on offense once they get the ball back if up only 3 as opposed to up 8?
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Also, if we go for it and miss (or make it but fail to score a touchdown), does this account for the fact that any serious errors FSU makes on their next possession (particularly late in the possession (like flubbing the punt or a pick downfield on 3rd and 8, for example)) will likely be meaningless because of the short amount of time left in the game?
 
Junebug said:
Also, if we go for it and miss (or make it but fail to score a touchdown), does this account for the fact that any serious errors FSU makes on their next possession (particularly late in the possession (like flubbing the punt or a pick downfield on 3rd and 8, for example)) will likely be meaningless because of the short amount of time left in the game?
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My response to this would be as follows:

-On the drive after the 4th and 1 decision let's assume FSU makes a huge mistake and gives up a blocked punt Touchdown to WF
-If we kicked the FG on the previous possession, we'd be 15-20% to win the game after scoring the blocked punt Touchdown.
-If we went for the TD on the previous possession, a lot of the time that blocked punt TD will be meaningless. But 30 or 40% (or whatever you think WFU's Touchdown rate facing 4th and 1 from the 5 is) of the time it would win the game for us right there! Still better off.
 
FckVwls said:
Then just fill out the form with blanks I posted a few pages back. It will take you 2 minutes. It isn't very useful to just lob in opinions that the inputs are bad without offering your own set.
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If I put in Numbers I would actually want some data behind it. That would take a while. I can enter random numbers if you want and it will 'prove my point' but it is a pointless exercise.
 
FckVwls said:
Then just fill out the form with blanks I posted a few pages back. It will take you 2 minutes. It isn't very useful to just lob in opinions that the inputs are bad without offering your own set.
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Option 1 - Kick FG

To win game need 5 consecutive events to all occur (estimated percentage):

1. Make FG (97%) - Weaver is a good kicker
2. Stop Florida State within reasonable time to get ball back (70%) - FSU offense struggling, will likely call vanilla plays to run clock
3. Drive the Field to Score TD after getting ball back (20%) - 1/5 seems about right in a 2 minute drill situation
4. Make 2 point conversion (45%) - Probably a bit less likely than national average with our offense against FSU defense
5. Win in Overtime (40%) - Even with a momentum have to be an underdog in OT in a game where you are 20 point dogs

Total Win Percentage = 2.44 percent


Option 2 - Go for Touchdown

1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario.
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs)
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above

Total after first drive = 53.5% Game Over, 25.575% down 5, 20.925% down 3

Down 5:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (35%) - I'll go lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (10%) - lower than 20% above given possibly less time

Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (15% - FSU only ahead by 3 would resort to passing, end around, trick play or whatever it takes to prevent Wake from getting ball back with a chance to tie with a FG)
3. Drive and score TD to win (5% -FSU would have done whatever it took to get some first downs and run some clock before giving us the ball back), Drive and score FG to tie (15%), Drive Fails (80%)
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier

Total win % = (25.575% * 35% * 10%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 5%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 40%)

= Total Win Percentage = 2.31%
 
FckVwls said:
FSU is trying to run the clock out in the same manner in both cases. Went run/run/pass. There is no reason to think FSU play calling should or would be materially different up by 8 or up by 3 in that spot.

If you think they would throw on early downs up 3 but not up 8, then I suppose they might convert a bit more. But we would also get the ball back in better clock position on our stops. There is a reason teams run a lot when leading.
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Absolutely disagree. FSU does not want to lose to Wake Forest. Playcalling would be materially different if up by 8 versus up by 5 and even more different than up by 3. They would resort to something we haven't seen the whole game or to something they haven't run the entire year and didn't want any of their future opponents to see. Up by 8 their odds of winning are significantly higher if they play conservative and even give us the ball back. Up by 3 their odds of winning are significantly lower if they play conservative and give us the ball back.
 
deaconbd said:
Option 1 - Kick FG

To win game need 5 consecutive events to all occur (estimated percentage):

1. Make FG (97%) - Weaver is a good kicker
2. Stop Florida State within reasonable time to get ball back (70%) - FSU offense struggling, will likely call vanilla plays to run clock
3. Drive the Field to Score TD after getting ball back (20%) - 1/5 seems about right in a 2 minute drill situation
4. Make 2 point conversion (45%) - Probably a bit less likely than national average with our offense against FSU defense
5. Win in Overtime (40%) - Even with a momentum have to be an underdog in OT in a game where you are 20 point dogs

Total Win Percentage = 2.44 percent


Option 2 - Go for Touchdown

1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario.
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs)
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above

Total after first drive = 53.5% Game Over, 25.575% down 5, 20.925% down 3

Down 5:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (35%) - I'll go lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (10%) - lower than 20% above given possibly less time

Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (15% - FSU only ahead by 3 would resort to passing, end around, trick play or whatever it takes to prevent Wake from getting ball back with a chance to tie with a FG)
3. Drive and score TD to win (5% -FSU would have done whatever it took to get some first downs and run some clock before giving us the ball back), Drive and score FG to tie (15%), Drive Fails (80%)
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier

Total win % = (25.575% * 35% * 10%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 5%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 40%)

= Total Win Percentage = 2.31%
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These percentages are just dumb
going from 15% to 70% on stopping FSU indicates that you have no intention of objectively looking at this.
 
Last edited:
if you think fsu had something extra to pull out when in danger, then surely the odds of winning in OT would
drop down to around 20% -- based on your 15% number, even lower than that.
 
deaconbd said:
Option 1 - Kick FG

To win game need 5 consecutive events to all occur (estimated percentage):

1. Make FG (97%) - Weaver is a good kicker
2. Stop Florida State within reasonable time to get ball back (70%) - FSU offense struggling, will likely call vanilla plays to run clock
3. Drive the Field to Score TD after getting ball back (20%) - 1/5 seems about right in a 2 minute drill situation
4. Make 2 point conversion (45%) - Probably a bit less likely than national average with our offense against FSU defense
5. Win in Overtime (40%) - Even with a momentum have to be an underdog in OT in a game where you are 20 point dogs

Total Win Percentage = 2.44 percent


Option 2 - Go for Touchdown

1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario.
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs)
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above

Total after first drive = 53.5% Game Over, 25.575% down 5, 20.925% down 3

Down 5:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (35%) - I'll go lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (10%) - lower than 20% above given possibly less time

Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (15% - FSU only ahead by 3 would resort to passing, end around, trick play or whatever it takes to prevent Wake from getting ball back with a chance to tie with a FG)
3. Drive and score TD to win (5% -FSU would have done whatever it took to get some first downs and run some clock before giving us the ball back), Drive and score FG to tie (15%), Drive Fails (80%)
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier

Total win % = (25.575% * 35% * 10%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 5%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 40%)

= Total Win Percentage = 2.31%
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This is pretty close to what I would have put. Odds of stopping FSU if they are up less than a touchdown are slim as they would open up the playcalling. These numbers are at least as good as good as the original. It all depends on how you view the situation. This is a subjective exercise no matter how much the intent is to make it objective.
 
This is some real next level game theory shit going on here. Let's keep a safe distance of 8 points so Florida State won't pull out any their good plays....and then we can surprise them at the end before they realize what is going on!!
 
Wrangor said:
This is pretty close to what I would have put. Odds of stopping FSU if they are up less than a touchdown are slim as they would open up the playcalling. These numbers are at least as good as good as the original. It all depends on how you view the situation. This is a subjective exercise no matter how much the intent is to make it objective.
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Yes. Wake Forest is stopping Florida State 70% of the time down by 8 but 15% of the time down by 3. That's really reasonable.
 
yeah like apetit said earlier some of you are basically arguing for kicking the fg on 1st down if there's a 35 point difference in getting the ball back quickly
 
Was Clawson asked about it post game? It would be a good question for the radio show.
 
We only want to get within 8, but no closer since FSU will pull out some ninja shit on us otherwise.
 
I would probably go about 65% stop in a reasonable amount of time after kicking the field goal and about 20% after going for the touchdown. The main difference is stopping them in a reasonable amount of time. Odds are we will waste a timeout, and use clock while trying to score. That cuts down on our chances to stop them in a reasonable amount of time. FSU would also open up the playbook which would increase their odds of getting a first down. The cumulative effect is significant in my opinion.

I love how you ask for numbers and then summarily dismiss anything that doesn't match up with your opinion. I get it, you think we should have gone for it. You have an opinion and so do other people. That is what they are, opinions. There is no objective basis for ruling either opinion out in this case. Like I said from the beginning. Clawson was dealing with a coin flip.
 
up 8 FSU went pass, pass (1st down), run, pass, sack.

up 5 FSU tries harder?

like twice as hard?
 
Also, I want to add that Clawson could have burned through the timeouts more on defense. Could have used a TO after 1st and 2nd down and gotten the ball back with 3 minutes left.

There is some wiggle room time wise in there to score the TD from five yards out.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
up 8 FSU went pass, pass (1st down), run, pass, sack.

up 5 FSU tries harder?

like twice as hard?
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They just tried up 8 point try to run the clock out passes. If they had been up 5 and even 3, then katy bar the door!!
 
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