Decision Analysis: 4th and 1 at FSU 6, Down 11, 4 minutes Remaining

How often does FSU go 3 and out on average? I don't think it's unreasonable to think that percentage would increase if FSU is clearly running the ball to eat clock and we line up accordingly on defense.

bmoneydeac said:

Was Clawson asked about it post game? It would be a good question for the radio show.

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From Disco Dan:

“My thinking is I wanted to stay in the game,’’ Clawson said. “We’re down 11, and if you go for it and don’t get it, the game’s over. I wanted to get points on the board and make it a one-score game and keep us in the football game.

“I thought it was a long one (yard). If it’s six inches, maybe you sneak it. I wanted to keep us in the game.’’

HailToTheDeacons said:

From Disco Dan:

“My thinking is I wanted to stay in the game,’’ Clawson said. “We’re down 11, and if you go for it and don’t get it, the game’s over. I wanted to get points on the board and make it a one-score game and keep us in the football game.

“I thought it was a long one (yard). If it’s six inches, maybe you sneak it. I wanted to keep us in the game.’’

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There's a 0.0% chance Clawson hasn't read this thread.

I'm not Monday morning Qb this one. He made a decisive call and didn't ask for a show of hands. That's what the HC does. I could have lived with either way.

Wrangor said:

I would probably go about 65% stop in a reasonable amount of time after kicking the field goal and about 20% after going for the touchdown. The main difference is stopping them in a reasonable amount of time. Odds are we will waste a timeout, and use clock while trying to score. That cuts down on our chances to stop them in a reasonable amount of time. FSU would also open up the playbook which would increase their odds of getting a first down. The cumulative effect is significant in my opinion.

I love how you ask for numbers and then summarily dismiss anything that doesn't match up with your opinion. I get it, you think we should have gone for it. You have an opinion and so do other people. That is what they are, opinions. There is no objective basis for ruling either opinion out in this case. Like I said from the beginning. Clawson was dealing with a coin flip.

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OK I used your numbers except tried to help those arguing go for TD by saying 25% after going for a touchdown if we don't convert the two and only 20 % if we converted the two point conversion:

Option 2 - Go for Touchdown

1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario. 
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs) 
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46.5%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above

Total after first drive = 53.5% Game Over, 25.575% down 5, 20.925% down 3

Down 5: 
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (25%) - I'll go lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (10%) - lower than 20% above given possibly less time 

Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (15% - FSU only ahead by 3 would resort to passing, end around, trick play or whatever it takes to prevent Wake from getting ball back with a chance to tie with a FG)
3. Drive and score TD to win (5% -FSU would have done whatever it took to get some first downs and run some clock before giving us the ball back), Drive and score FG to tie (15%), Drive Fails (80%) 
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier

Total win % = (25.575% * 25% * 10%) PLUS (20.925 * 20% * 5%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 40%) 

Total Win Percentage = 2.10 percent

I do agree with you. I don't understand either why someone would start a thread with their numbers, challenge others to run the calculation using their own numbers, when others don't comply by working through the calculation again ask them to run the calculation, and each time I do that (playing by the exact prescribed rules) I'm told my numbers aren't reasonable.

oops I left option 1 off. Sorry about that.

Option 1 - Kick FG 

To win game need 5 consecutive events to all occur (estimated percentage):

1. Make FG (97%) - Weaver is a good kicker
2. Stop Florida State within reasonable time to get ball back (65%) - FSU offense struggling, will likely call vanilla plays to run clock
3. Drive the Field to Score TD after getting ball back (20%) - 1/5 seems about right in a 2 minute drill situation
4. Make 2 point conversion (45%) - Probably a bit less likely than national average with our offense against FSU defense
5. Win in Overtime (40%) - Even with a momentum have to be an underdog in OT in a game where you are 20 point dogs

Total Win Percentage = 2.27 percent


Option 2 - Go for Touchdown

1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario. 
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs) 
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46.5%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above

Total after first drive = 53.5% Game Over, 25.575% down 5, 20.925% down 3

Down 5: 
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (25%) - I'll go lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (10%) - lower than 20% above given possibly less time 

Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (15% - FSU only ahead by 3 would resort to passing, end around, trick play or whatever it takes to prevent Wake from getting ball back with a chance to tie with a FG)
3. Drive and score TD to win (5% -FSU would have done whatever it took to get some first downs and run some clock before giving us the ball back), Drive and score FG to tie (15%), Drive Fails (80%) 
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier

Total win % = (25.575% * 25% * 10%) PLUS (20.925 * 20% * 5%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 40%) 

Total Win Percentage = 2.10 percent

Vwls, how does your analysis change at 4th and 2 or 3? Where do you think it tips?

bmoneydeac said:

Was Clawson asked about it post game? It would be a good question for the radio show.

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yes he said if you get the 3 you're still in the game and have a chance. He was right and we did. He said that if you go for it and don't get it the game is over. I guess he cared enough about the kids and the effort that he felt they deserved a chance to win.

The other thing is we're probably overstating our chance of getting the first down or touchdown from the 6 yard line at 46.5%. Notre Dame had about 150 yards in the last 5 minutes of the Clemson game but then when they needed a two point conversion to tie the game Clemson stopped them. It's not overly difficult to move the ball when there's plenty of field to work with but given that we had only scored one TD the entire game we probably really didn't have a 46.5% chance of scoring the TD there. If I lower that to maybe 35% the tally is closer to 2.4% trying the field goal and 1.5% by going for a TD. More and more clear that Clawson made the right move particularly given that we made the field goal, stopped them, and then moved right down the field. It actually went exactly as he hoped until the interception.

Another stats question. If you are down 15 and score a TD with 5 minutes left, is there an advantage to kicking the XP instead of going for two? I've always thought the right play was to go for two but I don't think I've ever seen a coach do it.

deaconbd said:

The other thing is we're probably overstating our chance of getting the first down or touchdown from the 6 yard line at 46.5%. Notre Dame had about 150 yards in the last 5 minutes of the Clemson game but then when they needed a two point conversion to tie the game Clemson stopped them. It's not overly difficult to move the ball when there's plenty of field to work with but given that we had only scored one TD the entire game we probably really didn't have a 46.5% chance of scoring the TD there. If I lower that to maybe 35% the tally is closer to 2.4% trying the field goal and 1.5% by going for a TD. More and more clear that Clawson made the right move particularly given that we made the field goal, stopped them, and then moved right down the field. It actually went exactly as he hoped until the interception.

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You are basically saying our chances of successfully converting a 2pt is even lower which makes the FG worthless.

Fuck Your Couch said:

up 8 FSU went pass, pass (1st down), run, pass, sack.

up 5 FSU tries harder?

like twice as hard?

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Unfortunately we probably would not have gotten the ball back had we cut the lead to 3 or 5. We know that we did get the ball back after we cut it to 8. That's a fact. There's no way of knowing if we would have gotten the ball back after cutting it to 3 or 5.

We also know that we moved the ball right down the field after getting the ball back with the 8 point deficit. That's a fact. There's no way of knowing IF we would have been able to move the ball down the field IF we would have gotten the ball back after scoring a touchdown.

Coach Clawson went with a plan that allowed us to get the ball back and move right down the field with a chance to tie the game.

I'll take the facts of what happened in that we had a chance to win the game over the chance of what might have happened to give us a change to win the game.

bmoneydeac said:

Another stats question. If you are down 15 and score a TD with 5 minutes left, is there an advantage to kicking the XP instead of going for two? I've always thought the right play was to go for two but I don't think I've ever seen a coach do it.

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yes the advantage is that if you take the 1 you're still in the game. If you miss the 1 you're not still in the game. Very similar to why Clawson kicked the FG to keep us in the game.

deaconbd said:

Unfortunately we probably would not have gotten the ball back had we cut the lead to 3 or 5. We know that we did get the ball back after we cut it to 8. That's a fact. There's no way of knowing if we would have gotten the ball back after cutting it to 3 or 5.

We also know that we moved the ball right down the field after getting the ball back with the 8 point deficit. That's a fact. There's no way of knowing IF we would have been able to move the ball down the field IF we would have gotten the ball back after scoring a touchdown.

Coach Clawson went with a plan that allowed us to get the ball back and move right down the field with a chance to tie the game.

I'll take the facts of what happened in that we had a chance to win the game over the chance of what might have happened to give us a change to win the game.

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im not sure you're a real poster but people are somehow agreeing with your nonsense so lets say as a hypothetical we could get the TD on 4th and 1 and time is equal to the fg if you had your druthers your preference is:

1. being down 8 with 3:30 to go... fsu not too worried, not gonna try that hard
2. being down 5 with 3:30 to go... fsu more worried, try a little harder
3. being down 3 with 3:30 to go... fsu real worried, we're doomed

bmoneydeac said:

Another stats question. If you are down 15 and score a TD with 5 minutes left, is there an advantage to kicking the XP instead of going for two? I've always thought the right play was to go for two but I don't think I've ever seen a coach do it.

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I don't think it really matters too much one way or the other on this one. I would favor going for the 2 pointer with 5 min left first because if you miss you know to kick an onside kick. But probably pretty marginal, doesn't matter much.

The one that everyone always talks about but coaches never do is when you are down 14 points and score with 1-2 min left you should go for 2 to cut it to 6. But no one ever does that, even though it is clearly correct.

Fuck Your Couch said:

im not sure you're a real poster but people are somehow agreeing with your nonsense so lets say as a hypothetical we could get the TD on 4th and 1 and time is equal to the fg if you had your druthers your preference is:

1. being down 8 with 3:30 to go... fsu not too worried, not gonna try that hard
2. being down 5 with 3:30 to go... fsu more worried, try a little harder
3. being down 3 with 3:30 to go... fsu real worried, we're doomed

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As I said before I'm on record that Hinton beats Duke before he graduates. What a great legacy to leave behind.

I'm not sure if you're serious but just in case ... FSU is better than we are. We don't have the athletes they do ...If we cut it to three we don't get the ball back. Look at the percentage of times teams cut it to 7-8 against New England and they do get the ball back. When they cut it to 3 they never get the ball. That's because Belechick is not going to put it in the hands of his defense and allow the other team to win in regulation.

This is not the Bowden FSU team any more. This is a much better team that isn't going to give us a chance to beat them in regulation.

FckVwls said:

I don't think it really matters too much one way or the other on this one. I would favor going for the 2 pointer with 5 min left first because if you miss you know to kick an onside kick. But probably pretty marginal, doesn't matter much.

The one that everyone always talks about but coaches never do is when you are down 14 points and score with 1-2 min left you should go for 2 to cut it to 6. But no one ever does that, even though it is clearly correct.

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I'm intrigued by the second one. I've never even heard of this strategy let alone seen it done. Could you imagine being the coach that scored twice in the last couple minutes but missed both attempts?

okay, not a real poster. good to know.

Yeah, they would get crucified. That's why it is never done.

But if you are 50/50 on two point plays, going for 2 after first TD gives you 50 percent wins / 25 percent OT / 25 percent loss instead of 100 percent OT. Pretty big difference.

yeah, but the 25% of the time they missed both conversions they'd be fired before they got on the bus