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Decision Analysis: 4th and 1 at FSU 6, Down 11, 4 minutes Remaining

Speaking of risky plays in a big underdog game, I loved Indiana faking the punt against Ohio State at their own 15 or so. Maybe not a great fake play, but liked the idea.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
yeah, but the 25% of the time they missed both conversions they'd be fired before they got on the bus
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I bet with the perfect coach, one with enough social capital and ability to articulate stats and game theory in a populist way, could get away with it. Probably a shortcut to optimizing win-probability at high levels. Can you imagine how ESPN would handle a coach like that?
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
I bet with the perfect coach, one with enough social capital and ability to articulate stats and game theory in a populist way, could get away with it. Probably a shortcut to optimizing win-probability at high levels. Can you imagine how ESPN would handle a coach like that?
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It would have to be really damn populist. Can you imagine dumbing this down far enough for an SEC fanbase to understand?
I don't think Moneyball plays as well to the college football crowd. Baseball's always been kind of a geeky sport - the "thinking man's game" and all that.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
I bet with the perfect coach, one with enough social capital and ability to articulate stats and game theory in a populist way, could get away with it. Probably a shortcut to optimizing win-probability at high levels. Can you imagine how ESPN would handle a coach like that?
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With the new NFL PAT rules, we may see more teams going for 2 in that situation, especially if a shaky kicker.
 
DistrictDeacon said:
With the new NFL PAT rules, we may see more teams going for 2 in that situation, especially if a shaky kicker.
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I think the Bucs would have considered it on Sunday.
 
FckVwls said:
Yeah, they would get crucified. That's why it is never done.

But if you are 50/50 on two point plays, going for 2 after first TD gives you 50 percent wins / 25 percent OT / 25 percent loss instead of 100 percent OT. Pretty big difference.
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Game is not played by rolling a dice or spinning a wheel.
The problem is if you get the two you're down by 6 so the other team knows a TD and extra point will beat them. They are more likely to score or keep the ball longer than if you had cut it to 7.

If you go for two and miss then your team has lost the momentum knowing they need a stop and a td and a 2 point conversion just to get to overtime. They're probably too spent to even get the ball back.

So you can't just say that by going for two the first time you're going to win 50%, OT 25% and lose 25%. You're probably going to win 50% and lose 50% same as if you kick the extra points
 
deaconbd said:
If you go for two and miss then your team has lost the momentum knowing they need a stop and a td and a 2 point conversion just to get to overtime. They're probably too spent to even get the ball back.
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Are they playing both ways?
 
But but....If the team misses the first two point conversion they would be really likely to get a 3 and out on defense (probably like 70% compared to like 15%) because the other offense wouldn't care or use their good plays since they have an 8 point lead.

So actually it might be best to go for 2 and miss on purpose because you get the ball back so much easier.....thinking out loud here guys
 
FckVwls said:
But but....If the team misses the first two point conversion they would be really likely to get a 3 and out on defense (probably like 70% compared to like 15%) because the other offense wouldn't care or use their good plays since they have an 8 point lead.

So actually it might be best to go for 2 and miss on purpose because you get the ball back so much easier.....thinking out loud here guys
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You may not want to do that on here...
 
HailToTheDeacons said:
From Disco Dan:

“My thinking is I wanted to stay in the game,’’ Clawson said. “We’re down 11, and if you go for it and don’t get it, the game’s over. I wanted to get points on the board and make it a one-score game and keep us in the football game.
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This is the correct answer. Among other flaws, the modeling doesn't account for the fact that a FSU error after a failed missed conversion try would be meaningless because of the short amount of time left.
 
FckVwls said:
But but....If the team misses the first two point conversion they would be really likely to get a 3 and out on defense (probably like 70% compared to like 15%) because the other offense wouldn't care or use their good plays since they have an 8 point lead.

So actually it might be best to go for 2 and miss on purpose because you get the ball back so much easier.....thinking out loud here guys
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Makes you wonder...
 
Junebug said:
This is the correct answer. Among other flaws, the modeling doesn't account for the fact that a FSU error after a failed missed conversion try would be meaningless because of the short amount of time left.
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But if you do score a TD, then a FSU error greatly increases your chances of tying or winning.

It kept us in the game longer, but lowered our chances of winning.
 
deaconbd is way overstating the impact that being down 3/5/8 would have on the likelihood of FSU getting a first down. I DO agree with him that the score plays a definite impact on the probability, but just not near the extent he is claiming. The large reason I think the probability of stopping FSU in a reasonable amount of time if we go for the first down and the subsequent touchdown is the time/timeout loss that would probably occur during that effort. If we lose one timeout in that process, or we experience one penalty or one sack, then the probabilities plummet (how about that alliteration?). There are multiple factors at play, and we aren't even scratching the surface. But as I agree with some of deaconbd's points I want to make sure I differentiate myself. There are multiple contributing factors to a reduced probability of stopping FSU in a reasonable amount of time. The most important factor in my opinion is the time issue, the lesser issue is what I would call the desperation factor. It certainly has some impact, but it is more of a minor impact.
 
Junebug said:
This is the correct answer. Among other flaws, the modeling doesn't account for the fact that a FSU error after a failed missed conversion try would be meaningless because of the short amount of time left.
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I do think there's something to this with our hypothetical percentages, but it should already be worked into existing win probability calculators.
 
Time can certainly be a factor when deciding to go ahead and kick to give you an opportunity to win, but there was like 3:50 and we had 3 TOs at the 5 yard line.
 
Junebug said:
This is the correct answer. Among other flaws, the modeling doesn't account for the fact that a FSU error after a failed missed conversion try would be meaningless because of the short amount of time left.
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No, this is not important. Unless you think it is more likely that FSU makes a huge error up by 8 than they would up by 5 or 3 (which goes against everyone saying they will be less aggressive up 8).

Plug a defensive TD right into both scenarios. You would still want to try for the TD from the 5 yard line. As pointed out many times, it is much easier to score a TD when facing 4th and 1 from the 5 than it is to make a 2 pt conversion AND win an overtime.
 
Apetit posted something on this thread earlier that I think is really important here: Football fans generally don't understand how bad it is to be down by 8.

Imagine hypothetically that WFU is playing Florida State and gets the ball back with 2:00 to go, 2 timeouts, at their own 30 yard line:

In this situation, being down 2 points is probably two or three times better than being down by 6 points: Driving for a game winning FG is maybe 2-3x easier than a TD.
But being down 6 points is approximately FIVE or SIX times better than being down 8 points.

I think folks obviously know that being down by 6 is much better than being down by 8. But maybe don't process exactly how rough being down by 8 really is.
 
So why do you advocate going for two down 14?
 
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