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Decision Analysis: 4th and 1 at FSU 6, Down 11, 4 minutes Remaining

biggest disconnect is the confidence people seem to have in being down by 8. what's the win probability for a team down 8 on the opponents 20 with 25 seconds left, even assuming the teams are even?

arguing that a moral victory is good long-term is defensible, but the thought that kicking the fg increased our chances to win is almost impossible to defend as has been pointed out.
 
Our odds of scoring a touchdown were significantly higher when we had the ball 4th and 1 at the 5 than any other time later in the game. That was our best chance to score a TD and have a 2 point conversion, and thus our best chance to have an opportunity to tie or win the game.

Plus it is significantly advantageous to score a TD and have the 2 point conversion on the 1st series because it gives you more decision options on the 2nd series. If you don't make the 2, then you know you need a TD to win in the 2nd possession.

If you kick the FG first, you have to score and get 2 just to tie. Now sometimes, you have to kick the FG, but 4th and 1 at the 5 doesn't strike me as a time to kick.
 
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Fuck Your Couch said:
every single coach in america makes a decision a game that isn't optimal from a purely win probability standpoint
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they shouldn't. that's the point. the data is out there but most football coaches are not smart about it.
 
Milhouse said:
they shouldn't. that's the point. the data is out there but most football coaches are not smart about it.
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a game ran on win probability decisions would look drastically different... we're nowhere close to optimal strategy. we question it when teams are desperate, but the decision to punt on 4th and 1 in the 1st can have as much of an impact as the 4th quarter decision.

i wish we went for it, but its not a real donk move, and its kind of illogical we criticize late game moves more
 
would be interesting to see the #s on this, but the other big thing is that I would only give us about a 20% chance of winning in overtime if we were to make it there.

with the way most coaches play it, I wonder if it might even be better for an
underdog to be down 4-5 points rather than 3 points when making a late game drive.
 
Safe play kick the FG. I think we make the first down and TD the way Colburn and the OL were playing. Oh, well.
 
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a lot of it comes down to is the coach desperate enough to make the right decision. rarely is a coach ballsy enough to go with the controversial go for it early consistently, or eschew the extend the game option late.

both are wrong, but sometimes a coach feels desperate enough to fix the latter based on underdog/favorite time/score situation.
 
Let me also add if we were down 9 instead of 11 on 4th and 1 at the 5, I would advise to kick the FG. I think the math would support that.
 
FckVwls said:
Let me also add if we were down 9 instead of 11 on 4th and 1 at the 5, I would advise to kick the FG. I think the math would support that.
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huge difference, yeah. and if we're down 12 instead of 11 it takes the decision out of clawsons hands too

down 6 is the best accidental motivator for optimal decision making.
 
FckVwls said:
Try to do it.
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I am not going to waste an hour making up fake numbers, but here is the formula:

Increase the following probabilities:
- stop FSU in reasonable amount of time down 8 (didn't waste any time or timeouts, and FSU will play conservative as they feel more comfortable with 8 point lead)

Decrease the following probabilities:
- Touchdown conversion rate. I would cut your numbers in half, maybe more
- stop FSU in a reasonable amount of time down 3 or 5. Again - we wasted time and timeouts. FSU also now knows that a touchdown beats them. Will play more aggressive and have a greater likelihood of getting a first down.

We were never going to score two touchdowns so including that in the likelihood is borderline lotto ticket numbers. We were playing for overtime, and I don't think there is much statistical significance between the two choices. I do think there is a huge significance in staying within 1 score for program building. So in essence Clawson both made the smart football and smart program decision by kicking the field goal. If you really want me to manipulate the numbers so that my argument works I will later, but surely you can see how it would not be very difficult to do.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
huge difference, yeah. and if we're down 12 instead of 11 it takes the decision out of clawsons hands too

down 6 is the best accidental motivator for optimal decision making.
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Which is why you don't kick a FG on 4th and short up 3.
 
oh man if we kicked the fg down 6 in that situation I would be livid.
 
Wrangor said:
I am not going to waste an hour making up fake numbers, but here is the formula:

Increase the following probabilities:
- stop FSU in reasonable amount of time down 8 (didn't waste any time or timeouts, and FSU will play conservative as they feel more comfortable with 8 point lead)

Decrease the following probabilities:
- Touchdown conversion rate. I would cut your numbers in half, maybe more
- stop FSU in a reasonable amount of time down 3 or 5. Again - we wasted time and timeouts. FSU also now knows that a touchdown beats them. Will play more aggressive and have a greater likelihood of getting a first down.

We were never going to score two touchdowns so including that in the likelihood is borderline lotto ticket numbers. We were playing for overtime, and I don't think there is much statistical significance between the two choices. I do think there is a huge significance in staying within 1 score for program building. So in essence Clawson both made the smart football and smart program decision by kicking the field goal. If you really want me to manipulate the numbers so that my argument works I will later, but surely you can see how it would not be very difficult to do.
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the only thing that would actually upset / concern me about clawson is if he agreed with you about playing for overtime.
 
Under what situation is an offense more likely to score a TD on a drive:

1. 4th and goal from the 3
2. 4th and 1 from the 5. Further out, but a chance to reset downs

I think it is pretty even actually.
 
FckVwls said:
Under what situation is an offense more likely to score a TD on a drive:

1. 4th and goal from the 3
2. 4th and 1 from the 5. Further out, but a chance to reset downs

I think it is pretty even actually.
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#2. 5 shots vs. 1 shot.
 
Option 1 - Kick FG

To win game need 5 consecutive events to all occur (estimated percentage):

1. Make FG (97%) - Weaver is a good kicker
2. Stop Florida State within reasonable time to get ball back (70%) - FSU offense struggling, will likely call vanilla plays to run clock
3. Drive the Field to Score TD after getting ball back (20%) - 1/5 seems about right in a 2 minute drill situation
4. Make 2 point conversion (45%) - Probably a bit less likely than national average with our offense against FSU defense
5. Win in Overtime (40%) - Even with a momentum have to be an underdog in OT in a game where you are 20 point dogs

Total Win Percentage = 2.44 percent


Option 2 - Go for Touchdown

1. Go for 4th and 1 at 6 yard line (45% make first down, 15% score touchdown, 40% miss/game over) - I think 60% make rate is about right in that scenario.
1a. - If First down made, Odds TD is scored next four plays (70% TD, 30% turn ball over on next set of downs)
Total TD make on drive = 15% + (45% * 70%) = 46%
1b. Go for 2 point conversion (45%) - Same as above

Total after first drive = 53.5% Game Over, 25.575% down 5, 20.925% down 3

Down 5:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (35%) - I'll go lower than FG scenario due to less time on clock some of the time post score
3. Drive and score TD to win (10%) - lower than 20% above given possibly less time

Down 3:
2. Stop FSU within reasonable time (15% - FSU only ahead by 3 would resort to passing, end around, trick play or whatever it takes to prevent Wake from getting ball back with a chance to tie with a FG)
3. Drive and score TD to win (5% -FSU would have done whatever it took to get some first downs and run some clock before giving us the ball back), Drive and score FG to tie (15%), Drive Fails (80%)
4. If Overtime, win percentage (40%) - Same earlier

Total win % = (25.575% * 35% * 10%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 5%) PLUS (20.925 * 15% * 40%)

= Total Win Percentage = 2.31%


I changed your estimates in a way that favors kicking the FG in the situation Wake Forest faced.
 
Well thank you. But There is no way that you stop Florida State and get the ball back 70% of the time after a FG but only 25% ish of the time after scoring a TD. And there is no way you are scoring a touchdown only half as often after a touchdown as you are after a FG.

A good portion of the time that you do score a Touchdown it will be with approx same time on the clock (or within 30 seconds or one timeout). And in those cases the numbers above would be about the same.
 
He had the odds of kicking a FG on the final drive after scoring a TD and 2 the same as scoring a TD after kicking a FG. Not realistic.
 
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