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Decision Analysis: 4th and 1 at FSU 6, Down 11, 4 minutes Remaining

ChrisL68 said:
He had the odds of kicking a FG on the final drive after scoring a TD and 2 the same as scoring a TD after kicking a FG. Not realistic.
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Yeah. And a 70% chance of getting the ball back after a FG. And a 15-35% chance of getting the ball back after a TD.

Even with these wacky inputs, the numbers came out about even.
 
Glad I was able to demonstrate a calculation that would support the coaches decision.

Notre Dame went up and down the field yesterday in the second half against Clemson, completely dominating the game. They got to the 2 yard line with a couple minutes left and then fumbled. They held on downs, got the ball back, and drove right down the field for a touchdown. But needing a 2 point conversion they were stopped.

I probably erred in staying with the assumption thatwe would have a 45 % chance of gaining the yard needed for the first down in the first place. If I take that down to 35% then the going for it option gives us less than a 2% chance of winning.

Sad but with a young team and weak Oline compared to ACC competition we can't get that yard easily so for now our coaches are right to make it an 8 point game to give us a chance to win.

As these guys grow up it's going to be fun when we have a chance to be competitive with most of the teams in the ACC. I'm going to make a prediction that Hinton beats Duke at least once during his career.
 
Scoring TDs against FSU is difficult. That's why you should maximize your chances by trying to get the TD while you are on the 5 yard line.
 
We scored one touchdown in 4 previous trips to the redzone. Plug 25% instead of 46% as your TD percentage on the first drive. I also think you way overestimate a rookie quarterback's time management ability. 10-30 seconds max to score? I think 30-45 is more realistic unless you call time outs. Riley Skinner behind a good Oline might do it in 10-30 seconds.
 
Neurodeac said:
We scored one touchdown in 4 previous trips to the redzone. Plug 25% instead of 46% as your TD percentage on the first drive. I also think you way overestimate a rookie quarterback's time management ability. 10-30 seconds max to score? I think 30-45 is more realistic unless you call time outs. Riley Skinner behind a good Oline might do it in 10-30 seconds.
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If we are 25% to score a TD on a drive facing 4th and 1 from the 5, then we have to be about 25% to make a 2 point conversion.

I asked earlier in this thread if a team is more likely to score a TD on a drive 4th and 1 from 5 or 4th and Goal from 3, and Ph said he thought 4th and 1 from 5.
 
I think our OL is playing better than our running backs right now. We need a Chris Barclay badly - or anyone - with breakaway speed. Plodding and leaning is what I see. Overall, HUGE improvement from last year, and hope it converts into a W soon.

If we tackle on the one long run, then tackle on 2nd and goal (was that Gaulden who just whiffed?) we had a legit shot. Keep your head up, wrap up etc.

Hinton is uber-competitive and a cool customer - got to keep him healthy - if so - we could be really good next year.

Also, Chuck Wade is a solid WR, but not a good kick returner. He is gonna get hurt if he keeps returning.

Oh yeah, I go for it down at the 5 yard line - we had them reeling, which was beautiful to watch.
 
Whatever odds you attach from scoring at 4th and 1 from the 5, it is going to dwarf the odds of scoring a TD driving the length of the field comparatively.
 
ChrisL68 said:
Whatever odds you attach from scoring at 4th and 1 from the 5, it is going to dwarf the odds of scoring a TD driving the length of the field comparatively.
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Especially with this team. The yardage toward a TD already accrued is more valuable than it would be with other offenses.
 
FckVwls said:
Well thank you. But There is no way that you stop Florida State and get the ball back 70% of the time after a FG but only 25% ish of the time after scoring a TD. And there is no way you are scoring a touchdown only half as often after a touchdown as you are after a FG.

A good portion of the time that you do score a Touchdown it will be with approx same time on the clock (or within 30 seconds or one timeout). And in those cases the numbers above would be about the same.
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He may be overestimating the value of our timeouts and time on the clock with those numbers, but I think your numbers greatly underestimate it. Run it for one yard and get stood up once on the goal line and we're likely forced into on onside kick (which has a miniscule win probability).
 
bobknightfan said:
LOL at all these percentages that people are just pulling out of their ass. Wrangor was dead-on. You can prove any theory if you are allowed to just throw out any undocumented percentages that are pre-calculated to support the argument you are trying to make. What a joke.
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62% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
a game ran on win probability decisions would look drastically different
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exactly. basketball is different now because people realized that 3 is significantly more than 2. perhaps one day people will realize that 7 is more than 3.
 
Milhouse said:
exactly. basketball is different now because people realized that 3 is significantly more than 2. perhaps one day people will realize that 7 is more than 3.
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Or 8 > 7.

Baby steps in the meantime. Not punting from your own 40 is a good start. Not throwing fades to the corner of the end zone.

Data slowly creeping in to decision making. 2&2 weeps.
 
Maybe one of you math majors can multiply our 4th and 1 success rate by our Red Zone TD conversion rate.
 
Are you saying that we lost the game because we didn't go for the TD with 4 minutes left?
 
My comments to those extremely worried about the clock would be twofold:

1. If time is a such huge problem, just throw the ball on 4th and 1 and all the subsequent plays. Throw into the endzone on 4th and 1 even. This has to be successful very infrequently to be a good idea (well less than half as often as you'd make a 2 pt conversion from 3 yard line)

2. Kicking a FG to go down 8 is a horrible result of the drive. It cripples much chance of winning the game. It is a bad coaching error to be forced to kick a FG there because of time reasons on a drive starting with 10 min left. That FG drive took over 6 minutes.

I would have preferred to go a bit faster earlier, but I personally think there was enough time to score a TD, get the ball back, then try for another score given we had all 3 timeouts.
 
DEACS76 said:
Are you saying that we lost the game because we didn't go for the TD with 4 minutes left?
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Well, not exactly. We would have likely lost anyways.

I am saying that kicking a FG cut our chances of winning the game roughly in half.
 
Why are you acting like we didn't have a chance to score a touchdown at the end of the game to tie it up ? Isn't the fact that Clawson's strategy absolutely worked good enough for you ?
 
BiffTannen said:
Why are you acting like we didn't have a chance to score a touchdown at the end of the game to tie it up ? Isn't the fact that Clawson's strategy absolutely worked good enough for you ?
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I think the point is more than we could have been playing for a win at the end there, rather than for overtime.

(but I assume you're trollin' anyway <3)
 
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