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Decision Analysis: 4th and 1 at FSU 6, Down 11, 4 minutes Remaining

Oh, okay. Now I understand. We wold have been a lot better off throwing the game ending interception with 2:30 left.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
the only thing that would actually upset / concern me about clawson is if he agreed with you about playing for overtime.
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I guess that is your prerogative, but it is a foolish opinion to hold. Two TDs in 4 minutes is great if it happens, but when you are a coach you have to maintain some sort of perspective. We scored 1 touchdown on Saturday and that was the first touchdown we had scored since 2011 against FSU. The odds of scoring 2 more in 4 minutes is ridiculously low. Like I said earlier. I think there is plenty of evidence to argue for both decisions (going for it on 4th or kicking the FG). I wouldn't really argue AGAINST either, and could make a strong case for either. It was a coin flip. I side with the decision Clawson made for th reasons I posted. This thread is a good example of the belief by a certain segment of fans that sport outcomes are the culmination of statistical analysis alone. While helpful, and EXTREMELY useful, there is way more to coaching a game, and building a program than the statistical outcome of one play. I realize there are two trains of though on this, and I happen to believe that coaching is more than just crunching numbers. It certainly is not less than statistics, but it is definitely more.
 
RedSoxFaithful said:
Do you know how to read?
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We lost the game because of the interception. Is the probability of scoring a two pt conversion greater or lower than Wake getting the TD with four minutes left? How many timeouts were you willing to use to get the TD? If we couldn't get the 2 pt conversion, we 'd have to go the same game plan as we did without the timeouts.
 
FckVwls said:
Well, not exactly. We would have likely lost anyways.

I am saying that kicking a FG cut our chances of winning the game roughly in half.
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Based on a statistical analysis that is completely made up by you to prove your already preconceived notion that we should have gone for it.
 
I haven't read this whole thread, so apologies if this haas already been noted. I like the approach and the basic analysis, but much of the discussion that I have read centers around the specific numbers (the probabilities) that fckvwls chose. Some think they 4th down conversion probability was too high, etc. What's really needed are probability distributions for each outcome so that the uncertainty surrounding each probability can be incorporated into the decision. We could even look at data from this game or from this season to estimate the probability of success on the 4 and one 1 opportunity, the on side kick recovery probability, etc. Then stick it all in a Bayesian net model and see how all the probabilities stack up. My guess would be that the decision becomes less clear if uncertainty is incorporated in to the decision analysis. I would also guess that Clawson doesn't have time to build a Bayesian net model on the sideline during a game.
 
FckVwls said:
My comments to those extremely worried about the clock would be twofold:

1. If time is a such huge problem, just throw the ball on 4th and 1 and all the subsequent plays. Throw into the endzone on 4th and 1 even. This has to be successful very infrequently to be a good idea (well less than half as often as you'd make a 2 pt conversion from 3 yard line)

2. Kicking a FG to go down 8 is a horrible result of the drive. It cripples much chance of winning the game. It is a bad coaching error to be forced to kick a FG there because of time reasons on a drive starting with 10 min left. That FG drive took over 6 minutes.

I would have preferred to go a bit faster earlier, but I personally think there was enough time to score a TD, get the ball back, then try for another score given we had all 3 timeouts.
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1) Get the first down. That would stop the clock and then throw it in the endzone on the next 4 plays. 2) Kicking the FG, we still had hope. If we failed the 2 pt conversion we are still in need for a 2nd TD. If we got it, there would have been less time on the clock (3 minutes maybe) and a 1st down by F$U would have ended the game. We got the ball back with 1:42 and 63 yds to go. If we got the ball back with :42 and needing a FG, we needed to go 33 yds or so. I think are chances of success would have been the same as what Clawson did.
 
To me what it comes down to is the field goal allowed us enough time to do what had been working on offense. I think going for it could have put us in a less comfortable clock situation that would lead to narrower range of viable play calls.

I support the decision to kick the field goal. Given the way our offense was playing, winning in regulation did not appear to be on the table.
 
These old donks not understanding statistics is the best case for #nosat I've seen. Look what the SAT got us!
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
These old donks not understanding statistics is the best case for #nosat I've seen. Look what the SAT got us!
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Where are the stats? This appears to be an assumption based argument and those assumptions do not seem to have a particularly sound statistical basis.
 
BiffTannen said:
Oh, okay. Now I understand. We wold have been a lot better off throwing the game ending interception with 2:30 left.
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actually, yes? throwing a pick there gives us a lot more time to recover than throwing it as time expires, obviously

if we're going to throw a pick in the end zone either way, I'd rather do it at a point in the game where we'll still have a win percentage > 0, however miniscule that ends up being
 
RedSoxFaithful said:
actually, yes? throwing a pick there gives us a lot more time to recover than throwing it as time expires, obviously

if we're going to throw a pick in the end zone either way, I'd rather do it at a point in the game where we'll still have a win percentage > 0, however miniscule that ends up being
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So we're better off down 11 with 2:30 on the clock and FSU with the ball than down 8 with 2:30 on the clock and FSU with the ball.
 
BiffTannen said:
So we're better off down 11 with 2:30 on the clock and FSU with the ball than down 8 with 2:30 on the clock and FSU with the ball.
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that wasn't the hypothetical that I was replying to; you asked me if it's better to be down 11 with 2:30 on the clock and FSU with the ball than to throw a game-ending interception as time expired

which, yes, the first scenario is obviously better
 
WFU Lurker said:
Where are the stats? This appears to be an assumption based argument and those assumptions do not seem to have a particularly sound statistical basis.
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Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:

WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________

Get 3 and out on Defense after kicking off Percentage: _____________
Drive for a TD 70 yards, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ___________
Drive for TD 70 yards, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________

Overtime win Percentage against FSU: _____________

Please just fill in the blanks and I will crunch the math for anyone.
 
FckVwls, I'd encourage you to figure out some critical values for some of those numbers if we hold some of the less contentious ones constant. I don't think too many people are going to dispute the FG make percentage (or even 4th and 1 conversion percentage / 2 pt conversion percentage), but the second grouping of probabilities there is going to get a lot of scrutiny.
 
FckVwls said:
Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:

WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________

Get 3 and out on Defense after kicking off Percentage: _____________
Drive for a TD 70 yards, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ___________
Drive for TD 70 yards, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________

Overtime win Percentage against FSU: _____________

Please just fill in the blanks and I will crunch the math for anyone.
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I am not saying it is easy (the math, however, is). But posts suggesting that anyone who disagrees with the results is an old donk who doesn't understand statistics are obviously off-base.
 
FckVwls said:
Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:

WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________

Get 3 and out on Defense after kicking off Percentage: _____________
Drive for a TD 70 yards, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ___________
Drive for TD 70 yards, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________

Overtime win Percentage against FSU: _____________

Please just fill in the blanks and I will crunch the math for anyone.
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I got 73.
 
FckVwls said:
Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:

WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________

Get 3 and out on Defense after kicking off Percentage: _____________
Drive for a TD 70 yards, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ___________
Drive for TD 70 yards, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 2:00 left 2 timeouts: ____________
Drive for FG from own 30, 1:30 left 1 timeout: _____________

Overtime win Percentage against FSU: _____________

Please just fill in the blanks and I will crunch the math for anyone.
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This is a nice expert elicitation exercise. That will give you a probability distribution too.
 
FckVwls said:
Anyone is welcome to fill out this form:

WF FG Make Percentage (22 yards): ______________
4th and 1 Conversion Percentage: ____________
1st and Goal TD Conversion Percentage (from 3 yard line, using some preference to passing plays to save time): ______________
2 Point Conversion Percentage: _______________
Click to expand...

i'm having bad sheep flashbacks with this thing man trigger warning plz.
 
Nice work, Fuck Vowels.

ChrisL68 said:
Whatever odds you attach from scoring at 4th and 1 from the 5, it is going to dwarf the odds of scoring a TD driving the length of the field comparatively.
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Good, simple recap post.
 
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