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Decision Analysis: 4th and 1 at FSU 6, Down 11, 4 minutes Remaining

RedSoxFaithful said:
but that the heck does that even mean
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we were very likely to lose by one score most of the time with the fg

more than half of the time we lose by 2 scores by going for it... but have a better chance to actually win the game
 
Enjoy the statistical discussion of the probability based decision making. I think that with the difference being between a 2% and 4% Win Probability that neither decision would've been awful. I tend to think that if we go on 4th and 1 and make it, and then take a while to get that TD...we are forced to onside kick. Yes, the FG forces you to play for overtime, but it does allow you to kick deep and play defense against a team killing clock. so from there, i look at the decision between a Game Tying drive with ample time left, or game winning drive with minimal time left. That's the part of the analysis and decision that i'm not sure has been captured in the numbers... If it is, i apologize...i just missed it.

Good work though on the breakdown
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
you mean the guy that changed the odds of getting a 3 and out from FSU from 70% to 25% with the only variable change being if we scored a FG or TD?
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That whole side is flawed.

First, we didn't get a 3 and out. That's just a bad assumption. They ran a play, got a first down via penalty on the next play, then went 3 and out on 4 pass plays out of 5. They did that because there was plenty of time left and they needed a first down. Something in the 70% area after the immediate field goal preserving the entire clock and both timeouts is probably reasonable for that outcome.

The TD play likely requires a 1 yard run for the first, clock stops briefly but it's not like we'd clock it there. We probably save the timeout and throw for the endzone, but it'd be rushed and Hinton's completion percentage there is probably very low, like 20% or worse considering our performance against their goal line defense. Maybe we score with Hinton on a keeper or hit a pass for the TD on 2nd or 3rd down. Regardless, the previously "equal" requirement of a 3 and out (which wasn't true to start with) now actually is a 3 and out plus we have to use all our timeouts to stop the clock. At best we're left with one.

The idea that going for it is "clearly" better is a fallacy mainly because this analysis is comparing a very certain outcome (kick, done) versus one full of unknowns and branching possibilities (fumble, good kick return, interception, Wake taking a sack to lose, etc).

As I said, 70%/25% may be extreme but it's no less extreme that calling it even, which is ridiculous.
 
yeah there are a lot more unknowns by going for it. its a higher variance play. there are many more outcomes, some good, mostly bad.

as a 20 point dog down 2 scores late in the 4th we should be going for higher variance. the fg limits possibilities to a mostly palatable one score loss.

even if cam makes that catch, we then have the equivalent of 4th and 3 to tie. then have to win against a 20 point favorite in OT.
 
Why is the 20 pt dog piece relevant? We played with them all day. Their best player was injured.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
yeah there are a lot more unknowns by going for it. its a higher variance play. there are many more outcomes, some good, mostly bad.

as a 20 point dog down 2 scores late in the 4th we should be going for higher variance. the fg limits possibilities to a mostly palatable one score loss.

even if cam makes that catch, we then have the equivalent of 4th and 3 to tie. then have to win against a 20 point favorite in OT.
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Some times you can crunch the numbers and show that it was a really bad decision.... I think this analysis shows that the decision was negligible based on the time variable. I certainly don't think this decision would ever make the Thank You for Not Coaching column that used to run on Grantland.
 
WFU Lurker said:
Why is the 20 pt dog piece relevant? We played with them all day. Their best player was injured.
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if you're trying to determine the WP who would be likely to win in OT is directly relevant.

if you want to say FSU - Cook = Wake, then okay.
 
WindyCityDeac said:
Some times you can crunch the numbers and show that it was a really bad decision.... I think this analysis shows that the decision was negligible based on the time variable. I certainly don't think this decision would ever make the Thank You for Not Coaching column that used to run on Grantland.
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i don't think it was a really bad decision.

i don't see from a purely WP standpoint how the fg is better than going for it.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
if you're trying to determine the WP who would be likely to win in OT is directly relevant.

if you want to say FSU - Cook = Wake, then okay.
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I think the previous four quarters were a much, much, much better indicator of how OT would have gone than the Vegas line.
 
bobknightfan said:
A little knowledge can be a dangerous thing. And again, it's what you learn after you already know it all that counts. This board has an abundance of 20-somethings who have not yet reached that stage in their lives. Their cock-sure arrogance about every thing is stunning.
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At what age is our cock-sure arrogance, like yours, respectable? 65?
 
some of you guys are backing yourselves into a corner where you'd have to argue for kicking the fg even if it were 1st down in order to be logically consistent.

fyc already provided a link to a win probably calculator that has done all of the work for us without the guesswork and assumptions that even with the unique variables will be pretty accurate.
 
This is what I got using the Win Probability calculator.

4th and 1 on FSU 6 - 10%

Kicking the FG on 4th and 1 - 4%
Converting a TD on 4th and 1 (2 pt conversion no good) - 18%
Converting a TD on 4th and 1 (2 pt conversion good) - 17%
Converting a TD at 3:04 (2 pt conversion no good) - 14%
Converting a TD at 3:04 (2 pt conversion good) - 15%
Converting a TD at 2:34 (2 pt conversion no good) - 10%
Converting a TD at 2:34 (2 pt conversion good) - 12%

Now, let's assume we get the ball back 1st and 10 at the WFU 37 with 1:42 left. Here are the Win Probabilities:

Down 8 - 13%
Down 5 - 28%
Down 3 - 25%

If we get the ball back with 0:42 because the TD took a minute off the clock, here are the WPs:
Down 5 - 14%
Down 3 - 16%

This is pretty strong support for getting a TD soon as possible. If the TD takes too much time, it’s not much better than kicking a FG.

This isn’t the entire story though. We are looking at the Win Probability of the decision, not the WP of the decision being successful. We have to include the odds of making the FG, 1st down, and TD in these situations. When compare the probability of converting a TD quickly to the high probability of making a FG, it’s suggests a narrow advantage for going for the TD, but not a slam dunk decision.
 
Now that makes a lot more sense. I think this clarifies that the decision was really whether we should have thrown for the endzone on 4th and 1 or taken the points. Funny that the kicking odds at 4% match the "winning" odds from FckVwls analysis of 4%.

The most likely outcomes without scoring in that play are (arguably) very heavily weighed towards getting the ball back with less than a minute down 5 or 3 (14%-16%) or having 1:42 down 8 (13%). A tie, essentially.

I'd be curious to tack on the situation that actually happened, 1st and 10 from the FSU 20 yard line down 8, since that's the actual scenario we made it to before Hinton overthrew Cam for the pick.
 
ph must have messed up somewhere, as there is no chance there is a 13% win probability down 8 with under 2 minutes left.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
ph must have messed up somewhere, as there is no chance there is a 13% win probability down 8 with under 2 minutes left.
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I get the same thing from advanced football analytics.

We were over 30% from the 20 to score, 15% to win the game from there down 8 by the way.
 
IAppreciateIt said:
ph must have messed up somewhere, as there is no chance there is a 13% win probability down 8 with under 2 minutes left.
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You can run the simulation yourself and tell me what I got wrong.
 
seemed high after dipping all the way down to 4% after the FG, but i got the same thing too, though i'd use the 12% adjusted not 13%

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the fact that the WP dropped from 8 to 4 after the FG means you don't have to play out every scenario to know what the optimal decision is. the drop is mainly because the FG almost assuredly takes winning in regulation out of the picture.
 
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