I know this isn’t exactly a “hot take”, but I think our season really depends on the progress that our sophomores make this year. By now you’ve probably heard some of this from Clawson. He’s said that his experience has shown that players make their biggest jump from their first year on the field to their second. That makes complete sense to me. Compare the 2014 version of Duke Ejiofor to the 2015 version.
If the team that takes the field against Tulane is basically the same team as last season from a skills/talent perspective, I say we are a 4 win team (max). Even with our schedule. But what if our sophomores really do make that “jump” this offseason? I count 12 sophomores that project to get 40+% of the snaps in 2016 that got 300+ snaps of experience as freshmen: Kendall Hinton (obviously starting QB has to be sorted out), Tyler Bell, Ryan Anderson, Phil Haynes, Justin Herron, Tabari Hines, Chuck Wade, Cortez Lewis, Chris Calhoun, Demetrius Kemp, Cameron Glenn and Dionte Austin. If they have a great offseason and make that “jump” that means we improve significantly at 3 OL positions (including both tackles), QB (potentially), RB, 2 of 3 WR positions, pass rusher opposite Duke Ejiofor, rover, corner opposite Brad Watson and one of the safety spots that struggled mightily last year. Whether that happens or not probably makes or breaks the season.
I know some people like to focus on the freshmen. Could someone like Kyle Kearns or Steven Claude or Kahlil Welsh or Scotty Washington or Amari Henderson become a solid contributor this year? Absolutely. But the learning curve is so steep that it’s hard to count on them being difference makers (the RB position might be the exception to that rule). I think it all comes down to those 12 sophomores.
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