First of all, this doesn't mean I'm back. It's easier to do it like this for those who have found it helpful over the years.
Also as usual, if any of you are going and want help with the other races, PM me an I'll help with picks for the full Oaks or Derby Day.
This year is nowhere nearly as easy as last year or the year before. It would be nice to continue the streak of two consecutive winners, exactas and Pick 4s, but this year will be much tougher. One of the keys to the Pick 4 will be whether or not Tepin will be running in the mile race before the Derby. If she does, she's a single.
The best three year old isn't running Derby weekend. Filly Songbird has a minor cold and will skip the Oaks. It's very possible she's being pointed to the Preakness. As it stands, if she is healthy and no one is totally dominant in the Derby, I would make he the favorite over any of the colts in Baltimore. Hell, if healthy, I'd have favored her in the Derby.
Pace makes the race and there doesn't seem to be solid pace makers who carry the pace deep into the race. Danzing Candy doesn't look to carry his speed to the finish and Destin hasn't run against any contender other than Outwork (won Wood Memorial in the slop). Without a lot of pace the deep closers may get a piece but will have troubles winning the race.
If the first six furlongs is something like 1:12 or 1:13, Brody's Cause, Suddenbreakingnews and the other deep closers have no chance.
Here is the list of Derby qualifiers - https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard .
Contenders
1. Nyquist - (7/2) In most years, the undefeated Nyquist would be 5/2 or lower, but his races haven't been that fast. However, all he does is win and beat many of the other top contenders. He has beaten Moyahamen, Mor Spirit and Exaggerator (three times). He should be sitting 3rd-6th and then takeoff.
2. Gun Runner (6-1) -He wins a lot, but I question the comp he's run against. He could win or could be up the track.
3. Destin (7-1)- Seems to be getting better, will be fresh and near on the lead. Does he have enough experience? Can he be rated?
4. Creator (8-1) Freaked in the Arkansas Derby after not being very good for most of his races, but everyone knew he was going to win. So maybe this was Asmussen's plan. If he's really on the improve, he will be there.
Contenders BUT?
5. Exaggerator (5-1) Had a huge win in the mud in the Santa Anita Derby. Should be listed as a contender, BUT has lost in a each of his three races against Nyquist.
6. Mohaymen (8-1) Was the favorite until Nyquist crossed the country to beat him by 10+ lengths. Was that simply a bad day? Is Nyquist really that much better? Sometimes you can draw a line through a race and ignore it, BUT you can't tell that here.
7. Outwork (10-1) Was impressive in the mud in the Wood Memorial and is reportedly training like a champ, BUT he only has four races and hasn't really beaten anyone. Could be a star or...
8. Lani (12-1) Won easily in Dubai, BUT it was in Dubai. No horse that has even won in Dubai and KY Derby. Older horses seem to need at least three months to make the trip to Dubai to US and be the same.
9. Mor Spirit (15-1) He was favored early on. Baffert loved him. BUT then he started getting beaten by Nyquist and others.
Watch at the end
10. Brody's Cause (12-1) He could jump to much higher level before the race. Seems to be getting better, but needs a hot pace or new, closer set-up. Is worth taking a shot on. Good call for exotics.
11. Suddenbreakingnews (20-1) Will likely get a check. He will be closing from nearly dead last and needs an abusive pace. I've always liked jockey Luis Quinonez. He tries in every race, but he's just not good enough to ride in the Derby. He's given this mount terrible rides in his past two efforts but still gotten second in one. If the owner put Bejarano or another top jockey on him, I'd like his chances better. Put him in exotics.
Things will likely change between now and next week. The post position draw could have an impact. Barring an injury or something else weird, I doubt I'll pick against Nyquist. He's done nothing wrong. Every other slot at the finish line is up for grabs.
Also as usual, if any of you are going and want help with the other races, PM me an I'll help with picks for the full Oaks or Derby Day.
This year is nowhere nearly as easy as last year or the year before. It would be nice to continue the streak of two consecutive winners, exactas and Pick 4s, but this year will be much tougher. One of the keys to the Pick 4 will be whether or not Tepin will be running in the mile race before the Derby. If she does, she's a single.
The best three year old isn't running Derby weekend. Filly Songbird has a minor cold and will skip the Oaks. It's very possible she's being pointed to the Preakness. As it stands, if she is healthy and no one is totally dominant in the Derby, I would make he the favorite over any of the colts in Baltimore. Hell, if healthy, I'd have favored her in the Derby.
Pace makes the race and there doesn't seem to be solid pace makers who carry the pace deep into the race. Danzing Candy doesn't look to carry his speed to the finish and Destin hasn't run against any contender other than Outwork (won Wood Memorial in the slop). Without a lot of pace the deep closers may get a piece but will have troubles winning the race.
If the first six furlongs is something like 1:12 or 1:13, Brody's Cause, Suddenbreakingnews and the other deep closers have no chance.
Here is the list of Derby qualifiers - https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard .
Contenders
1. Nyquist - (7/2) In most years, the undefeated Nyquist would be 5/2 or lower, but his races haven't been that fast. However, all he does is win and beat many of the other top contenders. He has beaten Moyahamen, Mor Spirit and Exaggerator (three times). He should be sitting 3rd-6th and then takeoff.
2. Gun Runner (6-1) -He wins a lot, but I question the comp he's run against. He could win or could be up the track.
3. Destin (7-1)- Seems to be getting better, will be fresh and near on the lead. Does he have enough experience? Can he be rated?
4. Creator (8-1) Freaked in the Arkansas Derby after not being very good for most of his races, but everyone knew he was going to win. So maybe this was Asmussen's plan. If he's really on the improve, he will be there.
Contenders BUT?
5. Exaggerator (5-1) Had a huge win in the mud in the Santa Anita Derby. Should be listed as a contender, BUT has lost in a each of his three races against Nyquist.
6. Mohaymen (8-1) Was the favorite until Nyquist crossed the country to beat him by 10+ lengths. Was that simply a bad day? Is Nyquist really that much better? Sometimes you can draw a line through a race and ignore it, BUT you can't tell that here.
7. Outwork (10-1) Was impressive in the mud in the Wood Memorial and is reportedly training like a champ, BUT he only has four races and hasn't really beaten anyone. Could be a star or...
8. Lani (12-1) Won easily in Dubai, BUT it was in Dubai. No horse that has even won in Dubai and KY Derby. Older horses seem to need at least three months to make the trip to Dubai to US and be the same.
9. Mor Spirit (15-1) He was favored early on. Baffert loved him. BUT then he started getting beaten by Nyquist and others.
Watch at the end
10. Brody's Cause (12-1) He could jump to much higher level before the race. Seems to be getting better, but needs a hot pace or new, closer set-up. Is worth taking a shot on. Good call for exotics.
11. Suddenbreakingnews (20-1) Will likely get a check. He will be closing from nearly dead last and needs an abusive pace. I've always liked jockey Luis Quinonez. He tries in every race, but he's just not good enough to ride in the Derby. He's given this mount terrible rides in his past two efforts but still gotten second in one. If the owner put Bejarano or another top jockey on him, I'd like his chances better. Put him in exotics.
Things will likely change between now and next week. The post position draw could have an impact. Barring an injury or something else weird, I doubt I'll pick against Nyquist. He's done nothing wrong. Every other slot at the finish line is up for grabs.
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