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General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

Deacsfan27

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Since both are the presumptive nominees/nominees (however you want to phrase it), we can probably consolidate the Trump/Clinton talk into one thread moving forward.
 
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Serious question if you had to choose amongst the three for president, would you go with Clinton, Trump, or [Redacted]? Would [Redacted] win, as ridiculous as that sounds? We need a poll for this.
 
I'd vote for [redacted] given those options.
 
I don't know man, you will have a hard time stopping the vitriol that is being spread on the Trump will win the nomination thread. That thing has legs.
 
I'll kick in a speculative topic: what is the margin that Hillary wins women and Hispanics?

Obama won women 55-44% in 2012 (women were 53% of the voting public). He won Hispanics 71%-27% (they were 10%). In 2008, women were 56%-43% for Obama, despite a woman being on the GOP ticket (also 53% of the voters), while Hispanics were 67%-31% (9% of voters).

Women will stay at the 52-53% range and I'm thinking Hillary will take at least 58% of them. Hispanics, on the other hand, look to be hard to predict based on polling in CA and other states with a large Hispanic pop. That said, given Trump's rhetoric, you may see the voting percentage jump to 12% and Hillary's take to at least 75%.

Those two numbers alone will win her the election, even if Trump gains on Romney's percentage with men (52%).
 
I'll kick in a speculative topic: what is the margin that Hillary wins women and Hispanics?

Obama won women 55-44% in 2012 (women were 53% of the voting public). He won Hispanics 71%-27% (they were 10%). In 2008, women were 56%-43% for Obama, despite a woman being on the GOP ticket (also 53% of the voters), while Hispanics were 67%-31% (9% of voters).

Women will stay at the 52-53% range and I'm thinking Hillary will take at least 58% of them. Hispanics, on the other hand, look to be hard to predict based on polling in CA and other states with a large Hispanic pop. That said, given Trump's rhetoric, you may see the voting percentage jump to 12% and Hillary's take to at least 75%.

Those two numbers alone will win her the election, even if Trump gains on Romney's percentage with men (52%).

It will be interesting to see what the Hispanic turnout rate is. I can't see Trump getting 20% of the Hispanic vote.
 
Figured it would be the best attempt at a fresh start haha.

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Trump's claimed multiple times that he's going to make major plays for CA and NY. Get that he already clinched the nomination so turnout wasn't great, but running unopposed he was still 800K votes behind HRC and 300K behind Bernie in CA. Silly if he does anything other than fund raise in CA.
 
Major GOP donors in CA will give their to to CA Congressional races and Senate campaigns outside of CA before giving to Trump.
 
[Redacted] and his Prius prob believe in climate change. I'll take him over Trump easy
 
At this point the question for me is not whether Hillary will win, it's whether or not the House goes Democrat.
 
At this point the question for me is not whether Hillary will win, it's whether or not the House goes Democrat.

Thanks to gerrymandering, there are way too many safe seats that shouldn't be.

That said, I think you'll see a chunk of GOP reps sprint as far away from Trump as possible and run on a "House GOP = stopping Hillary" message.
 
I think the Renee Ellmers race last night is the start of what you are going to see for Republicans who align themselves too closely with Trump. Of course in some states that is what the voters want, but I'm guessing there could be a lot of unexpected causalities.
 
I think the Renee Ellmers race last night is the start of what you are going to see for Republicans who align themselves too closely with Trump. Of course in some states that is what the voters want, but I'm guessing there could be a lot of unexpected causalities.

I saw she got effectively primaried, but catch me up on the guy and what this means.
 
It's actually hard to tell. The guy who beat her, George Holding, was also already a sitting representative and they were primaried together after the districts were ordered redrawn earlier this year.

AFP, a Koch group, contributed a good chunk of money to oppose Ellmers and was enticing the same people she brought into the fold from her original comparing (tea partiers in a broad sense) to vote against her alleging she wasn't being true to what she previously ran on.

I didn't realize she was the only sitting Congressperson to explicitly endorse Trump but saw that a few times already today and some last night. I think it's difficult to tell if the pushback against her was predominantly trump related (I think unlikely), opponent related, or her wearing out her welcome. Almost certainly a combination but yeah I'm not sad she got beat but I'm surprised she got absolutely destroyed.

Also holding apparently went to wake and looks ancient for his age as you can see on a pit thread that's been around the front page for a while. May have been mentioned there but I think he looks almost exactly like Ben Cafferty on VEEP.

Holding worked for Jesse Helms after a few years in private practice after graduating from wake twice. Maybe he reads the boards?
 
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