General Election Thread: Two Weeks Out

No, that is definitely Philly. You can tell the pic has been shopped to make it look like Chicago. The pixels.
 
PhDeac said:
I don't think they missed that.
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Bingo. Unusually high number of people in blue clothes and hats. Mark Cuban cracked on Uday or Qusay for trying to pass off the Mavs' arena as someplace in FL. Palin's slappies edited the Paul Revere Wiki after Mama Grizzly butchered the story.
 
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http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/04/wall...republican-sweep-as-trump-gains-in-polls.html

Wall Street contemplates possibility of a Republican sweep as Trump gains in polls

With the recent rise in Donald Trump's poll numbers, Wall Street is starting to contemplate the prospect of a better-than-expected Republican Party showing on Election Day. "It's incredible to see how much the US election has changed in recent weeks," Strategas' Daniel Clifton wrote in a report to clients Thursday.
"The FBI report of new emails from Hillary Clinton's private server has turned the election from a referendum on Trump to a referendum on Clinton. ... In our meetings this week in NY and Boston, it was clear to us that investors are not prepared for a Republican sweep."

A month ago, investors were bracing for a scenario of a Democrat sweep where that party win the White House and win back both houses of Congress. Now, it seems extremely unlikely Republicans will lose the House, and Senate control has become a toss-up, according to the latest polls. The firm put together stock portfolios for each party based upon which companies stand to do best if a particular party is in power. Using the relative performance of its Democratic versus Republican baskets, Clifton now projects Trump has a 42 percent chance to win the presidential election, which is higher than the betting markets' odds of about 30 percent.

In addition, Clifton cited how the S&P 500's three-month performance into Election Day was a good historical predictor for the incumbent party's re-election chances. If the market is up, the incumbent party is likely to win and vice versa, according to the indicator. This model was correct for 19 out of the past 22 presidential elections. Since Aug. 8, he noted how the market is down about 4 percent, which points to a Trump victory using history as a guide.
 
This is the essence of this election. It is lost on many board posters because they are part of the elitist group that much of America has come to distrust & dislike:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/the-death-of-elitism/article/2606518

Somewhere off U.S. 62 between Sharon, Pa., and Masory, Ohio, a sign reads, "You had your chance, it's our turn now." That homemade sign, located in the fault line of this election in the Mahoning Valley between Ohio and Pennsylvania, in all its simplicity found a way to capture the essence of this presidential cycle. In fact, it offered more insight into the discord between the American electorate and the governing elite than any pundit has been able to explain, let alone comprehend. In short, the biggest takeaway from this election no matter who wins is that we have witnessed the end of elitism.

And the power of elites to persuade us has evaporated. The public no longer has faith in big banks or big companies or big government. People cannot trust the banks because they create sham accounts to meet sales targets, or trust technology companies because they make shoddy cell phone equipment that blows up in our hands only to be replaced with another shoddy phone that blows up in our hands. And the governing class has failed us miserably, from wars in the Middle East that never end, to a healthcare bill that erodes our income to the politicization of the once trustworthy institutions of the Pentagon, NASA and the Justice Department.

To them, the system is genuinely rigged, and the divide between the Ivy League educated and the state or trade school educated, between the haves and the have-nots, has become so deep that there is no bridge long or sturdy enough to connect them. It is that very thing that explains why so many Americans are attracted to the deeply flawed candidacy of Donald Trump.

Sure, some people see in Trump a successful businessman who can easily transfer those skills to government, but there are plenty of other successful executives — Michael Bloomberg, for example, who, despite the delusions of some Manhattan-based commentators, would never have had the same broad appeal. Trump, despite his wealth, connections and pedigree (rich father, Wharton business school), is something of an outsider, explained Paul Sracic, political science professor at Youngstown State University. "I think he actually sees that, which is why he has always been so over-the-top in his bragging," he said. Yes, Bill and Hillary Clinton came to his wedding, but as Trump himself explained, they only came because he gave them money. Trump had to buy his way into the elite, because he is not one of them, said Sracic, "and that's what people like about him. The elites hate him, all of them, on both sides of the aisle."

And voters are sick and tired of the elite. Why? Because the social contract has been broken. One side gets all of the benefits, and the other side bears all of the costs. It's not just those who lack a college degree who are fed up. It is middle-class families who have been priced out of prestigious universities. It's also small business people who can't afford the high-priced attorneys and accountants needed to deal with ever increasing regulations. "We are increasingly two countries, and it's not just economics; it's also cultural," said Sracic. In politics, people often joke that the "golden rule" means that "the one with the gold rules." But this idea has infected our whole society. The new rule is that there are no rules, at least not if you are powerful.

That is part of the reason why Hillary Clinton is so disliked. For many people, she embodies the problem, explained Sracic. "The Clintons never really wanted to challenge the elite, they wanted to be part of it. Think of how quickly 'Bubba' Clinton — the man from Hope, [Ark.] — became Davos Man." In the 1980s, the novelist Tom Wolfe wrote about the "Masters of the Universe" running Wall Street. And they are still running everything. "But the people have figured out that in a democracy they still hold — literally and figuratively — the Trump card," said Sracic. The elites can only run things with the American people's permission. Trump is the people's way of withdrawing their permission. Wolfe's novel was titled "the Bonfire of the Vanities." The Vanities or sins of the elite in the early 21st Century is to think that they are ultimately in control. "Trump is the match that ordinary voters can use to burn it all down," said Sracic.

Of course, bonfires are dangerous. They can easily burn out of control. On Nov. 8, voters will have to decide whether it is worth the risk. One thing is for certain: The power of elites to control every aspect of Americans' lives is over for the foreseeable future no matter who wins.
 
You only have to take a quick look at Trump's tax plan to see what he thinks about the "non-elites".

As long as a segment of this population keeps prioritizing guns and religion over their own self-interest, we'll keep seeing right wing candidates who are happy to pander to them to get elected. But watch out when they start governing.


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ChrisL68 said:
blah blah blah elites blah blah blah
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The whiny elitist rants are anti-meritocratic at their core and it was painfully obvious during the two conventions. Trump and Bubba are both deeply flawed human beings, but one guy's dad loaned him $15M and inherited wealth and the other guy grew up in Bumfuck, AK, was a Rhodes Scholar, and a two term President.

Bill Gates, Zuckerburg, and the Google boys are all drop outs who became biliionaires, but they were all bright enough to be admitted to Harvard and Stanford. Akron, OH is hardly a hoops mecca, but LeBron didn't need to play for a HOF coach in the ACC, unlike countless UNC and duke NBA flops.

Obama's campaign managers didn't go to MIT or Cal Tech, they went to Delaware (Plouffe) and Montana (Messina). Plouffe didn't finish college until he was in his 40s and is now with Uber. Two sharp guys who knew how to play the game via data and changing demographics.

Does suck that rural America is dying, but that was obvious when Deer Hunter or the River came out and Reagan won on that. 30+ years later still hasn't changed and the GOP owns rural red state America. Somebody born there is hardly banned from the Ivies if they have the grades and scores. If you barely graduate from high school because you're lazy, not bright, or an asshole, Silicon Valley isn't beating a path to your doorway.
 
The top universities would love to get kids from Hope, Arkansas and the like.
 
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