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Wake Forest Football Preseason Thread

Was he not put on the DL and Claw said in the spring he was now coming into form?
 
With the news arriving yesterday that Zack Wary’s football career is over for medical reasons, I was inspired to take a look back at the recruits that Clawson signed in the 2014 class (which was immediately after his hire).

Here’s the approach that I take when looking back at whether a recruiting class was a success: I want 70% of the recruits to have become starters by their junior year. Ideally 20% of the class becomes all-ACC level performers. 30% is a very acceptable “miss rate” for any program. Misses are going to happen in recruiting, regardless of the number of stars. Everyone plans for it.

In the 2014 class, Clawson signed 12 recruits. To be considered a “good” class you would want to see 8 “hits” (meaning they start by their junior year), with two potential all-ACC performers.

Let’s take a look at the hits, misses and the players where the jury is still out (note: I excluded John Wolford from the list, even though I consider him to be 50% a Clawson recruit and 50% a Grobe recruit).:

HITS (1)

OL JUSTIN HERRON (rSOPH)
Recruitment: Rivals 3-star (5.6). Clawson flipped him from a Rutgers commitment after the two coaches that recruited him were fired. Herron had one other P5 offer (Boston College).
What He Has Done So Far: Played a remarkable 841 snaps as a redshirt freshman. He was probably put on the field a year too early. He had his share of pass protection breakdowns for sure, but he also improved as the year went on and together with Ty Hayworth stabilized the left side of the line A LOT better than the right side held up. Herron’s steady improvement culminated in the Wake staff grading him as Wake’s best OL in the season finale against Duke.

MISSES (4)

WR KAM UTER
Recruitment: Rivals 3-star (5.7). Uter had 8 other P5 offers including schools like Notre Dame, Arkansas and Penn State. He was a high-profile flip from Vandy to Wake after Clawson famously risked life and limb to visit Uter during a massive winter storm.
What He Has Done So Far: 6.29 ERA in just 24 career innings as a pitcher in the Dodgers organization. He has had 9 appearances this season as a reliever in the Arizona Rookie League.

RB TYLER HENDERSON
Recruitment: Rivals 2-star (5.4). Wake was the only P5 offer for the undersized APB that had put up some big stats in his high school career.
What He Has Done So Far: Retired from football for medical reasons.

LB ZACK WARY
Recruitment: Rivals 2-star (5.4). Had an offer from Arkansas and received late interest from Oklahoma State.
What He Has Done So Far: Retired from football for medical reasons.

QB TRAVIS SMITH
Recruitment: Rivals 3-star (5.6) and the #24 dual threat QB in the country. Wake flipped him from his commitment to Toledo.
What He Has Done So Far: Transferred to Eastern Michigan, but I believe he has since given up football.


JURY IS STILL OUT (7)

DL ZEEK RODNEY (on leave from team)
Recruitment: Rivals 3-star (5.6). He chose Wake over late interest from Syracuse, Boston College, Marshall and UNCC.
What He Has Done So Far: He would be considered a “hit” if it weren’t for his departure from the team for the 2016 season and the concern within the fanbase that he might not return to Wake. Rodney started every game at NT last season and had stretches where he was Wake’s most effective DL.

DL WILLIE YARBARY (rSOPH)
Recruitment: Rivals 2-star (5.4). Was a Signing Day flip from Indiana to Wake.
What He Has Done So Far: Wasn’t very effective in his 221 snaps last season as redshirt freshman, but he’s a big guy that is still developing. Too early to make much of a judgment.

DL CHRIS STEWART (rSOPH)
Recruitment: Rivals 2-star (5.2). Was a late flip from Louisiana-Monroe to Wake.
What He Has Done So Far: Made big gains in the S&C program and outgrew DE. He’s a physically impressive looking player. He showed more potential after his switch to DT. Gained 372 snaps of experience last season. In my game review of the BC game I credited Stewart with getting the penetration that led to Wake’s decisive final run stop at the end of the game. I think that he will be the primary backup to Josh Banks and should see his snap count increase this season.

DL RASHAWN SHAW (rSOPH)
Recruitment: Rivals 3-star (5.7) and the #27 weakside DE in the country. Flipped to Wake from Louisville. Had 18 other P5 offers, including LSU and Michigan State
What He Has Done So Far: One of Clawson’s most high profile recruits has hardly been heard from at all. Shaw played 69 snaps in the first 5 games, but then didn’t see the field the rest of the season. The Media Guide says he was injured but that is the first time I had heard that. I thought he had some nice moments in the Spring Game. Too early to call him a bust.

OL PATRICK OSTERHAGE (rSOPH)
Recruitment: Rivals 2-star (5.4). Had a VT offer.
What He Has Done So Far: Was recognized for making some of most impressive gains in the S&C program. Played just 28 snaps last season. OLs take the longest to develop, but he is clearly behind classmate Ryan Anderson (who was a Grobe commit). There’s still a possibility that he could be a 2-year starter.

TE DEVIN PIKE (JR)
Recruitment: Rivals 3-star (5.6). Flipped from Louisville to Wake. Had 4 other P5 offers:
What He Has Done So Far: Very little. Had 7 receptions as a true freshman, but none as a true sophomore (despite being on the field for 111 snaps). He drew some very nice praise from Clawson on Friday for his improvement this off-season. That’s welcome news if the rumors that Cam Serigne will try to go pro after this season are more than just rumors.

K ADAM CENTERS (rSOPH)
Recruitment: Centers took official visits to Wake and UVA before choosing Wake.
What He Has Done So Far: Averaged 62 yards as the kickoff specialist in 2014. Had ankle surgery in 2015 and missed the entire season.


CONCLUSIONS?: The early returns on this group have been disappointing and haven’t had the impact that the Grobe commits in that same class have had (for example, Cortez Lewis, Cam Glenn, Ryan Anderson, Jaboree Williams, Demetrius Kemp). But we are at least a year away from reaching any real conclusions, and the Clawson commits have more OLs and DLs which take longer to develop. The most interesting note is that the first Clawson commits have been plagued by some of the attrition issues that probably KO’d Grobe and have left the basketball program in a state of perpetual oh-look-we-are-young-again-this-year malaise.

If this class doesn’t work out, what does it mean? Hard to say. Clawson can’t be blamed for the medical issues etc. In addition, he probably had little time to evaluate the class and I’m deeply skeptical of talent that can be uncovered in December and January of any recruiting cycle. Perhaps most importantly, the attrition rates that have plagued this group haven’t been an issue with subsequent Clawson recruits (Welsh and Bo Archibald have been the only casualties so far from the large 2015 class) and the academic improvements under Clawson have been big so there's reason to believe that those rates won't grow.
 
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I remember kind of feeling bad about the Travis Smith flip. He was a backup plan for us and maybe would have been more likely to play for Toledo as well.
 
THE DEFENSE

I’ve been giving some thought to what would need to happen for the Deacs to get to six wins this season. Not from the perspective of what games on the schedule would they need to win, but what would need to happen to be a better football team. To that end, I decided to take a look back and a look forward at the defense.

LAST YEAR
I see some mentions every now and again about Wake having a “Top 40” defense last season. That doesn’t match with what I saw or the field. Statistically, the results are mixed. Wake did rank #36 in the country in total defense (measured by fewest yards from scrimmage), but more advanced defensive efficiency ratings put Wake much lower (75th according to ESPN and 77th according to Football Outsiders).

What I saw on the field last season was a largely ineffective DL and some weak links in the defensive secondary. The defense was largely held together by solid play from the linebackers. I wish I had a stat for “tackle efficiency” (meaning tackles divided by tackle opportunities) to see how our linebacking corps would have compared to others around the country. I think they were excellent.

Outside of Brandon Chubb, Marquel Lee, Duke Ejiofor and Brad Watson, the defense lacked impact players and impact plays (and remember that Ejiofor missed the start of the season). To make matters worse, the defense sprung 2 very obvious leaks when big plays were repeatedly surrendered by post-grad transfers Devin Gaulden and Zach Dancel. True freshman Dionte Austin was able to stabilize Gaulden’s corner position midway through the season, however Dancel’s safety position remained an issue.

I remain a fan of the 4-2-5 defense, but I think there are misperceptions about how much havoc it has been able to create. Pass pressure and blitz effectiveness were not strong points last year. To be clear though, that’s not a criticism of the system or staff. The 4-2-5 defense puts Wake in the best position to defend against spread teams (notably, to the staff’s credit the defense was able to make the necessary adjustments against heavy run-oriented teams like Boston College and Army that would be viewed as kryptonite for most 4-2-5 teams). Instead, I think the pass pressure and blitz issues were more about the personnel on the field than the scheme or coaching.

I would analogize Wake’s defense last year to a flyball pitcher with a solid mix of pitches but a low strikeout rate and a penchant for giving up the longball. What Wake did best was prevent a lot of long, sustained drives. When Wake didn’t give up a big play, they typically got off the field quickly (36th in the country on third downs). But big plays seemed to come all to often.

So what does Wake need to do to improve on defense this year? Here’s my Top 4:

#1 THE DEFENSIVE LINE NEEDS TO BE MORE DISRUPTIVE
Last year I monitored the defensive stats closely. The production from the defensive line? Well, let’s just say that it wasn’t good. That lined up with what I was seeing on the field. RBs came through our DL with a full head of steam (making life more difficult for the LBs and safeties like Dancel) and QBs were given plenty of time to throw. The 4-2-5 puts six players in the box on most plays – four DLs and two LBs. If your four DLs simply get swallowed up by the OL and don’t disrupt the play then that seems like it would be a problem (and I think it was).

For purposes of this discussion, I came up with a stat that I call “disruptive plays”. It’s the sum total of sacks, other tackles for loss, QB hurries and pass blocks. Remarkably, the entire defensive line managed just 38 disruptive plays last season (basically an average of three per game). To be fair, the defensive line did improve on this stat as the season progress. Through the first six games last season (**note that I excluded the Elon game from all stats**), the DL had only 15.5 disruptive plays. That increased to 22.5 disruptive plays over the last five games, due mostly to the return of Duke Ejiofor (6.5 disruptive plays) and improved play from Tylor Harris (3.5 disruptive plays). Improved, but still not good.

The worst stat was QB hurries where the entire defensive line managed just one more hurry (seven) than Brandon Chubb had by himself (six).

So could we see improvement this year? Possibly. Duke Ejiofor has pass rush ability that no other DL on the field had last year, however I think he is capable of much more this year. I’d like to see Ejiofor double the number of impact plays on a per game basis. However, what is needed most desperately is an effective pass rusher (or pass rushers) opposite Ejiofor. Wendell Dunn has registered just 1.5 sacks in 1,186 career snaps. I think there is a big opening for someone like Chris Calhoun (who flashed high-end athleticism last year and comes into this season with over 300 snaps of experience under his belt) or Paris Black (who had a very impressive spring and made me a believer). Or maybe we see highly-touted 2014 recruit Rashawn Shaw come into his own. There are lots of candidates, but at least one (and probably two) needs to take a BIG step forward this season if we want to sniff six wins.

#2 CREATE MORE TURNOVERS
Wake ranked almost dead last (121st in the country) at creating turnovers last season. Clearly that has to improve.

#3 A SECOND-YEAR PLAYER NEEDS TO EMERGE AS AN IMPACT PLAYER
I mentioned above that Wake had only 4 impact players last season (Chubb, Lee, Watson and Ejiofor). There were stretches where you could have argued that Zeek Rodney was a fifth – but he’s obviously gone for the year. Someone else needs to emerge this year. Clawson has said that players take their biggest jump from their first year on the field to their second. Duke Ejiofor certainly made that jump from Year 1 to Year 2. Candidates this year include Demetrius Kemp (338 snaps last season), Cameron Glenn, Jaboree Williams (technically a third year player but only a little over 300 career snaps), Dionte Austin (555 snaps last season), and Chris Calhoun (300+ snaps last season).

#4 MORE IMPACT PLAYS FROM THE ROVER POSITION
When I first learned the basics of the 4-2-5 my first reaction was that the Rover could be the star of the defense. A hybrid DB/LB that starts most plays close to the QB, close to the line of scrimmage, and with a direct line of sight into the backfield. With safety help behind him, I figured this spot would be a weapon that would wreak havoc in the opposing backfield. A real difference-maker. To date that hasn’t really happened. Hunter Williams was a steady, reliable tackler. But a difference-maker? A weapon?
The hope is that one (or both) of second-year Demetrius Kemp and converted safety Thomas Brown can have more big play impact from the position this season.
 
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Great summary,94. Agree that last year Dancel and Gaulden really left us vulnerable on a lot of plays. I think Austin and Henderson will be fine filling the CB spot.

Really hope Glenn can lock down and be a player at S. Redd needs a redshirt.

Like you, hopeful that Kemp or Brown can become an impact guy. Both great athletes and big hitters.

Wary going down scares me. Like Lee & Williams, but I feel like no Wary that means we'll see a lot of Dawson this year, and to reiterate, he's a great kid and plays hard, but one that will get you beat playing in the ACC on Saturdays.

Need to find a pass rush, From someone, anyone.
 
Just glad to see a "lay guru" opine that our defense last year was not nearly as good as some sunshiners keep insisting. Deac94's assessment is more in line with observable reality. My hope is that we somehow improve simply by aging another year, both on O and D.
 
Dans most recent take on wake has some interesting tidbits. Clawson listed who he felt were some of the faster guys on the team such as Tabari and Claude. Also mentioned Latter, Glenn, and Henderson amongst some others.

Most interesting was he said Dortch is playing good right now is thinking about playing him this year. At such a deep position, I was not expecting any Frosh WRs to play this year. But if you're good you're good.
 
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I think Dortch's expected PT would come on Special Teams.
 
How much do the current players keep up with recruiting on a day like today? As in, good to see you, let's have a good practice, did you hear we just landed one of our biggest recruits ever? I guess they'd be aware because of the visits, and a few probably realize it could impact their playing time down the road.
 
Everyone on that team knows Mike Allen committed today
 
Aided by this article from Dan Collins (link), here is my initial handicapping of which true freshmen will play this year

BURNING REDSHIRT IS LIKELY
Dom Maggio (certain)
Cade Carney

SOLID CHANCE TO BURN REDSHIRT
Arkeem Byrd
Greg Dortch
Brandon Chapman
Sulaiman Kamara
Jacquez Williams – will probably redshirt unless he beats out Justin Strnad and Nate Mays for the last spot on the 2-deep at LB
Essang Bassey – redshirt probably depends on whether he beats out Thomas Dillon for the last spot on the 2-deep at CB.
Boogie Basham/Manny Walker/Zander Zimmer – 2 of the 3 will likely redshirt. This is probably the position where the 2-deep will be the most competitive

WILL PROBABLY REDSHIRT
Jamie Newman
2 of the 3 DEs
Traveon Redd
Lukas Masterson
DeAndre Delaney
Jeremiah Brown
Taleni Suhren
Je’Vionte Nash
Tyler Watson
Malik Grate

GREYSHIRT
LaRonde Liverpool
 
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Has anybody who has been at practice seen how Maggio is looking so far?
 
AIR, practices are not open to public viewing.
 
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