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NC State -8

Pilchard said:
Sportsbooks don't set the line to split the action. There is a great book called "The Odds" by Thad Millman who spent a football season with the lines makers at the Stardust in Vegas and describes how lines are set and why they move.

As detailed in the book, its common for an inordinate amount of public money to be on one side of the game, without a line move or a move in the opposite direction. If the theory was true that Vegas just wants 50/50 split of the money on a game then the line would move to attract money on the side opposite where the bets are being made, but that often doesn't happen. There are number of examples of that this week. (BTW, a successful handicapping technique is to simply look at the lines moves against where the money is, and to bet the opposite side of those games).

Taking one example for this Saturday: Duke hosts UVA this week, the opening line is Duke -4 (which is a key number because so many games fall in the 3 to 4 point range). 65% of the action on the game is on Duke; yet the line has dropped to Duke -3.5. Why? Because even though a majority of the money is on Duke, the sharps (professional bettors like Billy Walters) like UVA. So, the Sportsbooks are willing to take a position on the game and attract even more money on Duke because experience tells them that the sharps side covers more often than the public side, and the Sports books can make even more money if 65% of the action is on the losing side as opposed to 50%. Another example of that was the WF at Duke game a couple of weeks ago. The public was all over Duke (as was many on this board) yet the line dropped because the smart money was on WF. WF covered and the books made killing.

Those that run the Sportsbooks are gamblers too; they will take positions on games; it further helps them that the vig is on their side. The concept that Sportsbooks look to split the action is wrong. Sportsbooks are in the business to maximize the money that they make, and to do that they will gladly take more than 50% of the action on what the bookie considers the wrong side.
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Laughable... Millman's work has been quoted as everything from lightly studied to outright laughable.

Guys like Millman don't want you to know that houses goal is to make money by getting no more than 52.6% of money on one side.
 
All I know is that if I still bet sports I'd be taking Wake +10 all day
 
deaconbd said:
Laughable... Millman's work has been quoted as everything from lightly studied to outright laughable.

Guys like Millman don't want you to know that houses goal is to make money by getting no more than 52.6% of money on one side.
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If even action is their sole goal, they are absolutely awful at their jobs
 
Vegas feels pretty good with state which I imagine the sharp money does also. Because they are taking pretty strong action on this game on States side

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State should have the fastest team speed of anyone we've played so far. Having said that, in Elko I trust.
 
Makes sense. It's easier to take risks over a weekend with a full slate of NCAA Football, NFL, and MLB games. But they are more conservative I guess for Super Bowls and other championships.

How did the sharps go last week vs. Indiana? I know they liked us against Duke.
 
Most of the posters on PP seem to think that they'll beat us fairly easily. This one was interesting though:


IIRC Mauk(sp?) was the starter the year they won the ACC. I think he broke his arm(or collarbone) the first game of the year. Some dude name Skinner that was a freshman (or redshirt freshman) that had never played a down in college football came in and led them to an ACC championship. Get ready boys...I have a bad feeling about this.
Wolford has plenty of experience and can run if he has to. I think we'll have our hands full this weekend.
 
What's interesting about it?
 
Strong home field advantage in this match-up with cow college over the years.

They broke it last year at BB&T- now it's our turn! :thumbsup:
 
Shorty said:
Most of the posters on PP seem to think that they'll beat us fairly easily. This one was interesting though:


IIRC Mauk(sp?) was the starter the year they won the ACC. I think he broke his arm(or collarbone) the first game of the year. Some dude name Skinner that was a freshman (or redshirt freshman) that had never played a down in college football came in and led them to an ACC championship. Get ready boys...I have a bad feeling about this.
Wolford has plenty of experience and can run if he has to. I think we'll have our hands full this weekend.
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I think State wins fairly easily.
 
Shorty said:
I think so too, but I'm also willing to admit that my view is influenced by 40 years of Wake football. I don't believe that strongly enough to bet on them to cover the eleven points, though.
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Yeah, I won't be shocked if Wake wins. It's not like State is some great team. They're not even good.
 
Carter Finley has been an epic house of horrors for the Deacs for it seems like ever. Maybe we can get some timely turnovers and win it at the end.
 
Shorty said:
Most of the posters on PP seem to think that they'll beat us fairly easily. This one was interesting though:


IIRC Mauk(sp?) was the starter the year they won the ACC. I think he broke his arm(or collarbone) the first game of the year. Some dude name Skinner that was a freshman (or redshirt freshman) that had never played a down in college football came in and led them to an ACC championship. Get ready boys...I have a bad feeling about this.
Wolford has plenty of experience and can run if he has to. I think we'll have our hands full this weekend.
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I hope the fact that both Duke and Wake have won the ACC FB championship much more recently than NCSU drives their fans crazy. The last time they won it was in 1979. And the last time the Holes won it was in 1980.
 
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