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Bowl projections

BudatWake said:
Not sure if Duke helped or hurt us last night. But it was nice to see UNC lose-- By the way, still no news from the NCAA--maybe they'll be in probabtion
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Yeah, and maybe the Electoral College will elect Hillary Clinton.
 
wsc8521s said:
There's no chance of that happening
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You don't think Louisville would drop if we beat them? I definitely think they would. Keep in mind the context of the discussion. An 8th win would damage the CFP or Six prospects of whoever we would beat.
 
PhDeac said:
You don't think Louisville would drop if we beat them? I definitely think they would.
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Sure they'll drop, but a 10-2 Louisville team's not going to wind up in Charlotte for the second time in three years.

BTW, they were in Nashville last year at 7-5.
 
PhDeac said:
You don't think Louisville would drop if we beat them? I definitely think they would. Keep in mind the context of the discussion. An 8th win would damage the CFP or Six prospects of whoever we would beat.
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*BELIEVE ME, unless VT pulls an upset in the ACCCG, the ACC winner will be in the CFP.
*The Orange Bowl has to take an ACC team. Even @ 10-2, that's gonna be Louisville. And we're 35-point dogs, so even in 2016, let's not be too serious about the thought of us beating them.
*Who are the Orange Bowl/(likely) Citrus/Russell Athletic gonna take instead of Loui and Clem? FSU who they both beat? Can't see it
 
wsc8521s said:
*BELIEVE ME, unless VT pulls an upset in the ACCCG, the ACC winner will be in the CFP.
*The Orange Bowl has to take an ACC team. Even @ 10-2, that's gonna be Louisville. And we're 35-point dogs, so even in 2016, let's not be too serious about the thought of us beating them.
*Who are the Orange Bowl/(likely) Citrus/Russell Athletic gonna take instead of Loui and Clem? FSU who they both beat? Can't see it
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Correct. Because L'ville and Clemson aren't going to be in Tier One consideration, we have a chance for Charlotte. Because of where UNC and FSU are going to finish, though, we'll need at least eight. I see Nashville as a real possibility, which would also be cool. Particularly without those fucking cowbells.
 
The whole discussion was about how winning would impact our bowl chances.

Beating Clemson would knock them out of the CFP and put the ACC Champ in the Orange.

Beating Louisville would give the OB more options meaning they could slide down to Charlotte.
 
I thought that if the ACC doesn't get the Orange Bowl, then we get the Citrus.
 
The ACC always gets the Orange Bowl if it is not a semi-final. If the Big Ten is the opponent in the Orange Bowl, then we take their spot in the Citrus Bowl, too.
 
CFN has us going to Charlotte to play the Gamecocks. They also have Clemson and Louisville in the Final Four. This projection is definitely subject to change.
 
DEACS76 said:
CFN has us going to Charlotte to play the Gamecocks. They also have Clemson and Louisville in the Final Four. This projection is definitely subject to change.
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Why?
 
DEACS76 said:
CFN has us going to Charlotte to play the Gamecocks. They also have Clemson and Louisville in the Final Four. This projection is definitely subject to change.
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I hate to say it but I doubt we will be going to the Belk Bowl just because as of right now there are 9 ACC teams bowl eligible.

State is 5-5 and their chances are at best 25% to put it in election terms as they host a now hot Miami team and then finish at UNC during rivalry week. Syracuse is 4-6 and has a 1% chance at best as they host Florida State then finish @ Pitt. BC is 4-6 and has about a 33% chance as they host a beatable 3-7 UConn, then come to Wake Forest. Duke is 4-6 and their chances are about 10% as they travel to Pitt, now 6-4 & coming off the emotional win at Clemson [plus Duke's own emotional win vs UNC-Ch], then they host Miami. Notre Dame [4-6], gets one of our slots [as long as within 1 game of that team], so they need to lose either at home against VT or @ USC.

It will definitely help all of us move up a slot if both Clemson & Louisville make the CFP. If we play the Big Ten in the Orange, we get another slot in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl [Citrus]. Top spots are Orange & Russell Athletic. Tier One this year are Belk, Sun, Pinstripe & Taxslayer [we had Music City last year so it is doubtful]. Second Tier--out likely slot--are Independence, Military, Quick Lane & St Petersburg. Extra if all slots aren't filled--Birmingham vs SEC or AAC.

With our small attendance & fan base I would think it will be real hard to move into a Tier One slot. Especially with the other private schools like Duke & BC probably going ineligible. I could see Pitt taking at northern Pinstripe, FSU going to the BWW in Orlando, Miami in the Taxslayer, Louisville in the Orange, Virginia Tech in the Russell Athletic, UNC in the Belk Bowl [last played here in 2013], GT in the Sun Bowl and Wake in the Military. [maybe we change with GT & go to the Sun?]. I think the ACC gets only 9 spots this year with Duke, UVa, NC State, Syracuse & BC being left out unless 5-7 gets a spot with APR. Thoughts?
 
Looked at four projections just now. One for Charlotte, one for El Paso, and two for Jax. That includes projections that don't have Louisville in the CFP.
 
The bowl committees choose whom they want. We are not assigned a bowl do to our record. We'll go to the bowl that picks us. The Bowl has to sell the match up. A Florida team in Jacksonville, Paul Johnson back in Annapolis, a team with a NY following in the Pinstripe and so on. The largest crowd for that game was Penn St v BC. BC fans took the train to NYC and PSU had it's first Bowl since the came off probation. Our best chance to bring a big crowd would be Charlotte. I doubt we get 1,000 fans to El Paso.
 
CFN now has us in Jacksonville vs Texas A&M. Bleacher report has us in El Paso vs Stanford. ESPN usually posts on Tuesday afternoon.
 
El Paso has big local support, they aren't reliant on fan bases traveling there. It's hard for any fan base to get there, no matter the size
 
TheReff said:
I hate to say it but I doubt we will be going to the Belk Bowl just because as of right now there are 9 ACC teams bowl eligible.

State is 5-5 and their chances are at best 25% to put it in election terms as they host a now hot Miami team and then finish at UNC during rivalry week. Syracuse is 4-6 and has a 1% chance at best as they host Florida State then finish @ Pitt. BC is 4-6 and has about a 33% chance as they host a beatable 3-7 UConn, then come to Wake Forest. Duke is 4-6 and their chances are about 10% as they travel to Pitt, now 6-4 & coming off the emotional win at Clemson [plus Duke's own emotional win vs UNC-Ch], then they host Miami. Notre Dame [4-6], gets one of our slots [as long as within 1 game of that team], so they need to lose either at home against VT or @ USC.

It will definitely help all of us move up a slot if both Clemson & Louisville make the CFP. If we play the Big Ten in the Orange, we get another slot in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl [Citrus]. Top spots are Orange & Russell Athletic. Tier One this year are Belk, Sun, Pinstripe & Taxslayer [we had Music City last year so it is doubtful]. Second Tier--out likely slot--are Independence, Military, Quick Lane & St Petersburg. Extra if all slots aren't filled--Birmingham vs SEC or AAC.

With our small attendance & fan base I would think it will be real hard to move into a Tier One slot. Especially with the other private schools like Duke & BC probably going ineligible. I could see Pitt taking at northern Pinstripe, FSU going to the BWW in Orlando, Miami in the Taxslayer, Louisville in the Orange, Virginia Tech in the Russell Athletic, UNC in the Belk Bowl [last played here in 2013], GT in the Sun Bowl and Wake in the Military. [maybe we change with GT & go to the Sun?]. I think the ACC gets only 9 spots this year with Duke, UVa, NC State, Syracuse & BC being left out unless 5-7 gets a spot with APR. Thoughts?
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Everybody keeps saying this, but Wake has traveled very well in the past to bowl games. Just because we are a small school doesn't mean we can't travel well.

GT isn't going to play in the Sun Bowl for the 3rd time in 5 years. I think that pushes them to the Military Bowl, bringing us to a floor of El Paso.

If Clemson and Louisville both get to the CFP then that is huge for our chances to move up.
 
doof, do you know if Military has first pick among itself/Detroit/Shreve? I've seen you allude to that several times but I haven't seen that noted anywhere
 
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