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The Way Too Early KenPom Report

I am still waiting for Woods to be moved into the starting lineup. Makes sense for Wilbekin to come off the bench as the backup PG or SG depending on the need. Woods is simply better on both sides of the ball. I understand why Manning is waiting to do it, but at some point you simply have to start the better player. We would be a lot better off if SJM or Moore could become a reliable big man off the bench. Our post play drops off the cliff when either Moore or Dinos leaves the game.
 
i assume you mean collins and not moore
 
Wrangor, if you were coaching, what would your rotations look like? Particularly if Collins picks up 2 fouls in the first 10 min of the game?
 
I'm not sure starting Woods is the right thing to do. He got 29 minutes today off the bench 2nd only behind BC. We can't go cold on offense with the 2nd team which we tend to do.

Given Woods' productivity he's a spark for the 2nd team and fills the scoring gaps as the first team gets their rest. The important part is that Woods can be productive off the bench.

And it's more important who's finishing the game.
 
WF is up to #57 in KenPom rankings. The highest that a WF team has been rated over the last 7 years. FWIW, in 2009-10 Dino's last year, when WF ended the season beating Texas and getting worked by KY in the NCAAs, WF finished that season #58 in KP ratings.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
Kenpom projects us to go 16-14 with 7-11 in ACC play. We could win a couple games we shouldn't and lose a couple games we shouldn't. Could be on the bubble late in the season playing meaningful games.


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Interesting. This team likely won't win a road ACC game other than @ BC. That means we'd need six home wins in a schedule that includes UNC, Miami, Duke, Pitt, and Louisville all coming to W-S, not to mention a NCSU team that recently has given us trouble at home. Not saying it's impossible, but it's not like we have a track record of showing improvement through the course of a season.
 
Pilchard said:
WF is up to #57 in KenPom rankings. The highest that a WF team has been rated over the last 7 years. FWIW, in 2009-10 Dino's last year, when WF ended the season beating Texas and getting worked by KY in the NCAAs, WF finished that season #58 in KP ratings.
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Wow, interesting.
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
Kenpom projects us to go 16-14 with 7-11 in ACC play. We could win a couple games we shouldn't and lose a couple games we shouldn't. Could be on the bubble late in the season playing meaningful games.


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This ought to be good enough to get us in the NIT, right? I'd take it.

ETA: Catamount would owe me $50 under this scenario.
 
Deac83 said:
I'm not sure starting Woods is the right thing to do. He got 29 minutes today off the bench 2nd only behind BC. We can't go cold on offense with the 2nd team which we tend to do.

Given Woods' productivity he's a spark for the 2nd team and fills the scoring gaps as the first team gets their rest. The important part is that Woods can be productive off the bench.

And it's more important who's finishing the game.
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No matter when he plays, I wish we could find a way to get Woods a few more good looks a game. Would also love to see him get to the line 6 to 10 times a game, especially if that means he is shooting FTs at the end of games.
 
Would gladly take the over in ACC road wins for WF if the number was 1.5 for this year. Realize that WF has been awful in the past on the road under Manning, but this is a new team and new year.
 
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CantStandYa said:
Interesting. This team likely won't win a road ACC game other than @ BC. That means we'd need six home wins in a schedule that includes UNC, Miami, Duke, Pitt, and Louisville all coming to W-S, not to mention a NCSU team that recently has given us trouble at home. Not saying it's impossible, but it's not like we have a track record of showing improvement through the course of a season.
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I would guess that we win at least 2 ACC games. We have a 1/4 chance in like 5 road games..odds are we get at least one in addition to BC from a pure statistical standpoint.
 
The reality is this is one of, if not the most competitive ACC's from top to bottom we have ever seen. Even Lunardi has 10 ACC teams in The Dance and two more in his First Four Out. That's 12 out of 15 teams. I would guess this could be unprecedented nationally.
 
RJKarl said:
The reality is this is one of, if not the most competitive ACC's from top to bottom we have ever seen. Even Lunardi has 10 ACC teams in The Dance and two more in his First Four Out. That's 12 out of 15 teams. I would guess this could be unprecedented nationally.
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Shows how silly it is to try to form a bracket this early in the season. To even be thinking that Pitt or NC St are close to a bid is ridiculous. Both of their resumes are non-existent at this point. Pitt got worked by Duquense at Pitt & NC St seems close to losing every game they play. If 12 ACC teams represent at least the bubble at the end of the season then I expect WF to be one of those 12.
 
If State had even an average coach, they'd be a lock for The Dance. They should be a Top 20 team. They have an extraordinary PG, a couple of really good shooters and some bigs who can play. Gottfried sucks is the reason they aren't much better. Hell, you should be able to roll the ball out on the court without a coach and be close to being a Top 20 team.
 
Duquesne versus Pitt was on a neutral court. Both schools are in Pittsburgh, they played the game in the Penguins arena, not at Pitt.
 
daaberry said:
Shows how silly it is to try to form a bracket this early in the season. To even be thinking that Pitt or NC St are close to a bid is ridiculous. Both of their resumes are non-existent at this point. Pitt got worked by Duquense at Pitt & NC St seems close to losing every game they play. If 12 ACC teams represent at least the bubble at the end of the season then I expect WF to be one of those 12.
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State also gets Yurtseven back soon (think it's one more game).

Right now, Wake, State and Pitt are all basically on the same level for the 11-13 spots.

There are five tiers:

1. Duke, UNC, UVA, Louisville
2. Cuse, ND, Miami, FSU, VPI, Clemson
3. Wake, Pitt, State
4. GT




SOMEWHERE WAY DOWN HERE....BC
 
RJKarl said:
If State had even an average coach, they'd be a lock for The Dance. They should be a Top 20 team. They have an extraordinary PG, a couple of really good shooters and some bigs who can play. Gottfried sucks is the reason they aren't much better. Hell, you should be able to roll the ball out on the court without a coach and be close to being a Top 20 team.
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Everyone hates on Gott being a shitty coach all the time but at the end of the day he's been to an Elite 8 with Bama and 2 Sweet 16's with NCSU and been to the NCAA's in 4 of 5 seasons. He's accomplished all of that with 1.5 NBA players on all of his rosters. The defense has been really bad this year but we've played every game but the first without Mav Rowan, a starter and best shooter, every game so far with our Yurtseven, and a few games without Ted Kapita, our 2nd or 3rd best big.

Gott has normally improved his teams as the year goes on, and I expect this year to be no different. No matter what it takes time to get together and for multiple games this season our "crunch time" lineups have been 4 freshmen and a guy that played 6 minutes of basketball last season. It takes some time to gel. I'm sure you disagree so go ahead.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
We may be in tier 2 this year.
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Yep, I wouldn't be surprised if the tier 2 and 3 you mentioned have a lot of movement as the season progresses. Miami, VPI, Clemson, and FSU haven't really shown me anything that says they are far and away better than NCSU or WFU. KenPom obviously has both of those two ranked lower but it's early.
 
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