• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

The Way Too Early KenPom Report

Reminder that last year's rankings don't wash out until 73 days into the basketball season... So January 23rd is the day when KenPom is 100% based on results from this season's games.

Until then, it is tough to rely on the absolute rankings to separate ACC teams by tier. Agree that we need more data to see who is actually good this year vs. who was just good on paper.
 
tau06 said:
Everyone hates on Gott being a shitty coach all the time but at the end of the day he's been to an Elite 8 with Bama and 2 Sweet 16's with NCSU and been to the NCAA's in 4 of 5 seasons. He's accomplished all of that with 1.5 NBA players on all of his rosters. The defense has been really bad this year but we've played every game but the first without Mav Rowan, a starter and best shooter, every game so far with our Yurtseven, and a few games without Ted Kapita, our 2nd or 3rd best big.

Gott has normally improved his teams as the year goes on, and I expect this year to be no different. No matter what it takes time to get together and for multiple games this season our "crunch time" lineups have been 4 freshmen and a guy that played 6 minutes of basketball last season. It takes some time to gel. I'm sure you disagree so go ahead.
Click to expand...

When Yurtseven becomes eligible, State should be a borderline Top 10 team. Well, assuming he's as good as people say he is.
 
RJKarl said:
When Yurtseven becomes eligible, State should be a borderline Top 10 team. Well, assuming he's as good as people say he is.
Click to expand...

Top 10 teams normally aren't one guy away from beating terrible teams by 3 points. I predict State underachieves hard this season, and then Smith and Yurt go pro.
 
wakelaw13 said:
Top 10 teams normally aren't one guy away from beating terrible teams by 3 points. I predict State underachieves hard this season, and then Smith and Yurt go pro.
Click to expand...

I mean State wasn't ranked to start the season even with Smith and Yurtseven being on the team. So how much of an underachievement would that be? With that said this team "should" have the talent to make a run in March. Dennis has consistently raved that Yurtseven is the smartest player he's ever played with but considering what we put on the floor last year I don't really know if that's some wild proclamation.
 
RJKarl said:
When Yurtseven becomes eligible, State should be a borderline Top 10 team. Well, assuming he's as good as people say he is.
Click to expand...

He really struggled in the last exhibition game he played in, think he fouled out in like 6 minutes of game time. We'll see how long it takes him to adjust. As talented as this NCSU team is on paper, it's extremely young and even the upper classmen haven't really played a ton sans Abu.
 
tau06 said:
He really struggled in the last exhibition game he played in, think he fouled out in like 6 minutes of game time. We'll see how long it takes him to adjust. As talented as this NCSU team is on paper, it's extremely young and even the upper classmen haven't really played a ton sans Abu.
Click to expand...

It will be interesting to see how quickly he adapts. Unsure of how the Turkish League translates to the NCAA, but he did drop 8 points and 7 boards against the Nets in an exhibition game last year.

Unsure of how playing against the Nets will translate to the ACC too...
 
tau06 said:
I mean State wasn't ranked to start the season even with Smith and Yurtseven being on the team. So how much of an underachievement would that be? With that said this team "should" have the talent to make a run in March. Dennis has consistently raved that Yurtseven is the smartest player he's ever played with but considering what we put on the floor last year I don't really know if that's some wild proclamation.
Click to expand...

Ok, I should have said underachieved compared to fanbase expectations. And not being ranked with this kind of class coming in seems surprising.
 
Come to the KP thread to find people talking about NCState basketball. Guess the boards need to have their own NCState season long thread.
 
wakelaw13 said:
Ok, I should have said underachieved compared to fanbase expectations. And not being ranked with this kind of class coming in seems surprising.
Click to expand...

In terms of fan base expectations, nc state underachieved every year in football and basketball. Their fans think they're world beaters every year and doesn't turn out that way.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
PhDeac said:
Wrangor, if you were coaching, what would your rotations look like? Particularly if Collins picks up 2 fouls in the first 10 min of the game?
Click to expand...

Good question. Unfortunately we don't have a great option from what I see. Moore keeps making the same mistakes, McClinton is a neutral on defense and a massive minus on offense. To be honest SJM may interest me more than ether of the other two until Moore can cut out the silly mistakes.

My ideal starting lineup would be:

PG: Crawford
SG: Woods
SF: Arians
PF: Collins
C: Dinos

I would have a very hard time playing Dinos with either of the two 7 footers. We would just be too slow on defense to defend. So I would probably go small and slide arians to the 4 more often. When Dino's needed a rest I would play either Moore or sjm and have a quick hook. McClinton is just completely uninspiring to me as a player. I would also not be afraid to use the 1-3-1 as a way to mitigate some of problems of Moore or especially sjm on defense. Stick them in the middle of that 1-3-1 with 4 smaller players and let them chase. Have a big in the middle to clean it up is we break down. Our 1-3-1 has looked surprisingly effective thus far.

I think Childress will continue to improve and is close to being an improvement over wilbekin right now. If wilbekin isn't making jump shots he is completely useless. Chill can defend much better and can create for others. Out of all the complaints about DM, the wilbekin loyalty resonates the most. Wilbekin is a bench guard. He should be getting 15-20 minutes backing up bothe positions. I would rather start Childress than wilbekin and the gap between woods and wilbekin is pretty wide.

What about you?



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Who starts is not very important.

Woods is 2nd on the team in minutes; in fact, he and Crawford are almost tied for the team lead in minutes. Absent foul trouble, Woods will always play the key points in the game. It's not like WF is getting out to slow starts, and Woods has no problems getting into the offensive flow coming off the bench.
 
If we get up a bunch in couple of these last OOC games, I'd like to see Rich get a few minutes.

Tomorrow's game would probably be the best coach vs. coach 1-on-1 game in college bball.
 
I disagree very strongly with the idea that it doesn't matter who starts.

Keyshawn is better than Wilbekin, but typically doesn't attempt a shot until 5-8 minutes into the game. He doesn't get into the flow of the game early on. Against Northwestern he took his first shot 8 minutes in and didn't score until 2 minutes left in the first half - we had a very slow start that game with our starters shooting like 10% from deep. Didn't have a bucket until just over 6 minutes left in the first half against Richmond - another slow start. Funny how that's happening against teams that aren't terrible.

It hurts his chemistry with the other 4 best players which I think has been fairly obvious in late game situations. I would guess that not a single other team in the top 25 has a 6th man who is leading the team in minutes (Woods was leading prior to Richmond, now he and Crawford are basically tied).

On top of that, he's not a real 6th man. He's not a role player. He's not one-dimensional. He's not a grad transfer who's leaving next year. He more than doubles up Wilbekin in assists, rebounds, steals, and is a much better shooter. He's a far, far better defender. Yet we're going to put Wilbekin on starting ACC guards to kick off both halves and let Woods spend most of his time chasing subs and playing on mixed squads of 5 until the last 8 minutes.

I'll be shocked if he's not starting by ACC play. While I'm usually one to give Manning the benefit of the doubt, this one's a no-brainer to me. It tells me Manning is favoring loyalty to Wilbekin for coming with him to Wake when we had zero talent.
 
Good post. Part of the issue is that Manning likes to play waves of backups and starting Woods makes that very hard to do.
 
Woods has to start soon and he will become a more assertive player as the season goes on. He sat out a whole year, so maybe this is DM's way to get him back in the action slowly? Don't know... I don't see any compelling reason why he should sit while Wilk starts.
 
I understand why wilbekin started to begin the year but now we are getting to the time where a change is appropriate. It's pretty obvious that woods is better. Manning needs to make the move.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
PhDeac said:
Good post. Part of the issue is that Manning likes to play waves of backups and starting Woods makes that very hard to do.
Click to expand...

What would your rotation look like?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
DCDeac said:
I disagree very strongly with the idea that it doesn't matter who starts.

Keyshawn is better than Wilbekin, but typically doesn't attempt a shot until 5-8 minutes into the game. He doesn't get into the flow of the game early on. Against Northwestern he took his first shot 8 minutes in and didn't score until 2 minutes left in the first half - we had a very slow start that game with our starters shooting like 10% from deep. Didn't have a bucket until just over 6 minutes left in the first half against Richmond - another slow start. Funny how that's happening against teams that aren't terrible.

It hurts his chemistry with the other 4 best players which I think has been fairly obvious in late game situations. I would guess that not a single other team in the top 25 has a 6th man who is leading the team in minutes (Woods was leading prior to Richmond, now he and Crawford are basically tied).

On top of that, he's not a real 6th man. He's not a role player. He's not one-dimensional. He's not a grad transfer who's leaving next year. He more than doubles up Wilbekin in assists, rebounds, steals, and is a much better shooter. He's a far, far better defender. Yet we're going to put Wilbekin on starting ACC guards to kick off both halves and let Woods spend most of his time chasing subs and playing on mixed squads of 5 until the last 8 minutes.

I'll be shocked if he's not starting by ACC play. While I'm usually one to give Manning the benefit of the doubt, this one's a no-brainer to me. It tells me Manning is favoring loyalty to Wilbekin for coming with him to Wake when we had zero talent.
Click to expand...

A lot of assumptions made here, and not really backed up by the stats.

WF did not have a slow start in the NW game. WF led 12-5 4:30 into that game. WF led 24-16 with 8 minutes left in the 1st half, and WF led at half time.

Don't see how not starting hurts Woods' chemistry with the other starters. He is shooting an ungodly 57% from 3 and from 2; he is the team's 2nd leading rebounder, scorer and assist guy. He has been getting the ball in position to score, he is setting up his teammates, and he is helping on the boards. Hard to imagine a more seamless transition for him with his new team.

No one said Woods is a role player or one dimensional, and he is not getting treated as such, he is tied for the first team in minutes, playing 30 minutes a game. When you play that many minutes, it's impossible for him to be playing against 2nd team guys, but when he is, WF has a big advantage.

When, and if, WF starts struggling in the 1st 4 minutes of a game (which has not happened yet), there may be a reason to make an adjustment, but right now, really don't see any reason to mess with Woods since he is thriving in his current role.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top