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The Way Too Early KenPom Report

We'll be around 10 point underdogs there. KP has us as a 20% chance to win.

Utah (62) plays at X this weekend so that'll be indicative of how good X is at this point.
 
Don't think the 8 day layoff (I assume for exams) is going to be very helpful in prep for Xavier unfortunately.

Also don't like the matchup. They start four 6'6" guards. Assuming Arians and Dinos get Sumner and Bernard, that means Wilbekin has to guard Bluiett or Macura. Could be rough.
 
I was looking at this yesterday afternoon, but I'm unsure of why Bernard is getting so many minutes honestly.

He plays 71% of the minutes, and is producing an 84 ORtg, 28% turnover rate, and shooting around 35% from the FT Line, 2P%, and 3P%. Nothing about him sticks out and says that he should be getting that many minutes at all other than the fact that they may not be very deep and he's better than the alternative (which is hard to believe).

Still early so that could change, but Bernard was one of better grad transfers from last year.
 
DCDeac said:
Don't think the 8 day layoff (I assume for exams) is going to be very helpful in prep for Xavier unfortunately.

Also don't like the matchup. They start four 6'6" guards. Assuming Arians and Dinos get Sumner and Bernard, that means Wilbekin has to guard Bluiett or Macura. Could be rough.
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This would be a great time to put Woods in the starting lineup and let Chill be the first sub in. Obviously he needs work on offense, but seems to be a better on ball defender than Wilbekin.

The chances of this happening? I'd say 1%.
 
wakelaw13 said:
This would be a great time to put Woods in the starting lineup and let Chill be the first sub in. Obviously he needs work on offense, but seems to be a better on ball defender than Wilbekin.

The chances of this happening? I'd say 1%.
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Agreed. I get that if you're going to bring 2 guys in at the 6 minute mark it would be pretty dangerous to have it be both Childress and Wilbekin. Still think it's worse to not have Woods guarding those types of players to start halves. Think of ACC play - you want Wilbekin guarding Kennard or Grayson to start? Yeesh. Plus Woods has seen a lot of minutes in Crawford's role when he's out. I'd still have Wilbekin as first guard off the bench since Childress is still trying to catch up to the speed of college ball. But he could come in for any of Crawford/Woods/Arians and typically we'd still be ok. Then bring in Chill when you pull Wilbekin. Essentially just move about 15 minutes of Wilbekin/Childress minutes to our best 3 guards.
 
Today Wake officially checks in the top 50 (@ #50). Crazy that 50th overall still puts Wake at 11th in ACC.
 
daaberry said:
Today Wake officially checks in the top 50 (@ #50). Crazy that 50th overall still puts Wake at 11th in ACC.
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Wow.
ACC could set the record for teams getting to the tournament this year.
Anyone know the record?
 
ACC teams are playing in the top 3 games tonight (KP ratings in parens):

Kentucky (4) @ L'ville (8)
Clemson (26) @ S. Carolina (32)
UVA (3) @ Cal (48)

WF actually rose to the #11 spot. Here are KP's current ACC rankings and projected ACC record:

1. Duke (2) 13-5
2. UVA (3) 13-5
3. UNC (6) 13-5
4. L'ville (8) 12-6
5. ND (23) 10-8
6. Miami (25) 9-9
7. Clemson (26) 10-8
8. FSU (27) 9-9
9. Cuse (30) 10-8
10. VT (37) 9-9
11. WF (50) 8-10
12. Pitt (59) 6-12
13. State (61) 7-11
14. GT (134) 4-12
15. BC (209) 2-14

The reason why some teams are projected with a better record than teams rated ahead of them is because of the ACC's unbalanced schedule. Cuse is projected with a 10-8 conference record because they play BC, GT, Pitt twice; while Miami plays Duke, FSU and VT twice.
 
KenPom question for you guys that know more than I do about it. Is the offensive adjusted efficiency number that he uses to rate a team's offense the same as an average of each individual games points per possession number that is then adjusted for the defense that you were playing against multiplied by 100? I've been looking for an explanation but can't seem to find anything.
 
There's an explanation in here: http://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-explanation/

So offensive efficiency is a very simple calculation, it's just how many point you scored per possession times 100. His actual calculation of adjusted offensive efficiency is kind of complex, but all it is an attempt at the same measurement adjusted for schedule.
 
Help me out here. It seems to me like it would take considerable parity to get 11+ teams in the NCAA Tournament. It's hard to imagine 10 teams getting in behind a 15-3 or better #1 team.
 
The Northwestern and Xavier games are going to come back and haunt us. I don't think we get in at 8-10 in the ACC since we had no real quality OOC wins. We split those games, finish 8-10 in the ACC, and I think we're on the bubble. We win both games, finish 8-10 in the ACC, and I think we're dancing.
 
WFUWaldo said:
The Northwestern and Xavier games are going to come back and haunt us. I don't think we get in at 8-10 in the ACC since we had no real quality OOC wins. We split those games, finish 8-10 in the ACC, and I think we're on the bubble. We win both games, finish 8-10 in the ACC, and I think we're dancing.
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I don't disagree, but the difficulty of our conference schedule will have likely leave us with a top 10 SOS when all is said and done. So if we are decent enough in the ACC and finish relatively strong, I think we could make a strong argument for the NCAAs.

But there needs to be a lot of winning between now and then for that to even be realistic.
 
WFUWaldo said:
The Northwestern and Xavier games are going to come back and haunt us. I don't think we get in at 8-10 in the ACC since we had no real quality OOC wins. We split those games, finish 8-10 in the ACC, and I think we're on the bubble. We win both games, finish 8-10 in the ACC, and I think we're dancing.
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I think it really just depends on who beats who in the ACC this year. Wake/NCSU/Miami/FSU/VT all either have relatively weak OOC schedules or if they have a tough OOC schedule, have lost any games in which they could get a "signature win" really. If those teams are close at the end of the year as far as record goes, it will come down to if a team has wins over any of the elite teams, and especially if they have any wins like @UL, @Duke, @UVA, @UNC. Going to be an extremely competitive and fun ACC season.
 
WFUWaldo said:
The Northwestern and Xavier games are going to come back and haunt us. I don't think we get in at 8-10 in the ACC since we had no real quality OOC wins. We split those games, finish 8-10 in the ACC, and I think we're on the bubble. We win both games, finish 8-10 in the ACC, and I think we're dancing.
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There's also no chance in hell we go 8-10 in the ACC. This team hasn't shown it can win tough games on the road.
 
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