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The Way Too Early KenPom Report

CantStandYa said:
There's also no chance in hell we go 8-10 in the ACC. This team hasn't shown it can win tough games on the road.
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They have played two road games against top 50 opponents. Covered one, didn't cover the other.

Overall we are 3-2 on the road straight up and against the spread. Don't get the "can't win tough games" notion. Different team than last year., and they should be judged accordingly.
 
Wake moves from #50 to #42 after LSU romp, passing Syracuse (#46) for 10th in the ACC. Offense jumped from 24th to 20th in the nation... thanks Dinos.
 
FWIW we finished 58th in 2010.

Lot of reasons to think we will finish close to or better than that. Only UNC and Louisville have played a tougher non conference schedule.

We've played 7 top 150 teams with a bit of a gap in the results:

We've had 4 games against teams in roughly the 85-125 range, 2 at home and 2 away, and won all 4 by an average of 20 points.

We've had three games against top 50 teams, all away from home and all losses, by an average of 10 points.

I think a tourney team would have gotten one win out of the Xavier/Northwestern games but if we can hold serve at home we should have a shot.
 
RChildress107 said:
FWIW we finished 58th in 2010.

Lot of reasons to think we will finish close to or better than that. Only UNC and Louisville have played a tougher non conference schedule.

We've played 7 top 150 teams with a bit of a gap in the results:

We've had 4 games against teams in roughly the 85-125 range, 2 at home and 2 away, and won all 4 by an average of 20 points.

We've had three games against top 50 teams, all away from home and all losses, by an average of 10 points.

I think a tourney team would have gotten one win out of the Xavier/Northwestern games but if we can hold serve at home we should have a shot.
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Eh. I know how the Kenpom math works out, but, to me, strength at the top of the schedule matters a lot more than strength at the bottom of the schedule. I assume ours rates highly based on strength at the bottom (in other words, no awful opponents).

I think it sorts out to be hard for a mediocre to good team, which is what we are I suppose, but it would be quite easy for a good to great team to get out with no more than 1 loss. We didn't play anyone awful, but weren't we favored in all but Northwestern, Xavier, and Villanova? I don't think anyone is going to look at our schedule and talk about how hard it was because we played UNC-G instead of St Francis.
 
One of the Xavier Nw games would have looked really nice on the resume but we have a good resume, just no marquee wins yet. We aren't going to finish in the top 10 of the ACC without defeating several top 25 teams so by the end of the year we will have those. The key is that our SOS will be top 10 by the end of the year. That is going to look impressive if we can get to 18 or 19 wins. I think 19 wins does it for us. 9/9 in conference and a tourney win or 10/8 in conference and it doesn't matter. We definitely have to get to 18 but that is on the bubble.


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Per Bracketology on ESPN - Wake is listed first in the category of the "next four out." Pitt is the first team in the "first four out."
 
Wrangor said:
One of the Xavier Nw games would have looked really nice on the resume but we have a good resume, just no marquee wins yet. We aren't going to finish in the top 10 of the ACC without defeating several top 25 teams so by the end of the year we will have those. The key is that our SOS will be top 10 by the end of the year. That is going to look impressive if we can get to 18 or 19 wins. I think 19 wins does it for us. 9/9 in conference and a tourney win or 10/8 in conference and it doesn't matter. We definitely have to get to 18 but that is on the bubble.


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We will have a good resume if we go 10-8. Our resume as it stands now is not good. There are no bad losses, but there are also no good wins (I think @ Richmond is our best?).
 
Wrangor said:
One of the Xavier Nw games would have looked really nice on the resume but we have a good resume, just no marquee wins yet. We aren't going to finish in the top 10 of the ACC without defeating several top 25 teams so by the end of the year we will have those. The key is that our SOS will be top 10 by the end of the year. That is going to look impressive if we can get to 18 or 19 wins. I think 19 wins does it for us. 9/9 in conference and a tourney win or 10/8 in conference and it doesn't matter. We definitely have to get to 18 but that is on the bubble.


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I think 18 gets us in as long as we don't play GT or BC in the tournament.

18-13 with a wins against Duke, Miami, and Clemson at home and wins at BC and Syracuse (2 losses at home to UNC and UL) and a first round loss to FSU would put us at 32 RPI with a Top 20 SOS.

Losing three straight to end the year would be tough though.
 
What is our now expected road wins including and excluding BC? I would guess we're probably approaching two wins excluding BC

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WFU Lurker said:
We will have a good resume if we go 10-8. Our resume as it stands now is not good. There are no bad losses, but there are also no good wins (I think @ Richmond is our best?).
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It is impossible for us to go better than 6-12 without beating a top 50 team. Or better than 3-15 without beating a top 60 team.

To get to 9-9 we have to win some combination of 3 games against top 30 teams at home or top 50 teams on the road.

Our "easiest" path to 9 wins gives us wins against Clemson and Miami at home and VT on the road. It would also give us 3 wins against Pitt and State (top 60 teams).

If Kenpom rankings hold that would put us at 18-12(9-9), 1-9 vs top 25, 3-12 vs top 50, 7-12 vs top 100, no bad losses, SOS in top 15, RPI in top 30 and Kenpom in the low 30's.

We would likely face a top 50 team in the first round of the tournament.
 
Needless to say, we need Villanova, Xavier, and Northwestern to do well in their conferences. 18-13 with no bad losses could sneak in.
 
Could probably change this thread title from "Way Too Early" to just "Too Early."
 
Currently looking at 10th ranked in ACC, but 5th best offense. If you can score, you have the ability to beat anyone. Seeing as Wake should have beat UVA last year, I wouldn't list any game at home as impossible to win. With how the schedule is it is important for them to be 2-1 after 3 games.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
They have played two road games against top 50 opponents. Covered one, didn't cover the other.

Overall we are 3-2 on the road straight up and against the spread. Don't get the "can't win tough games" notion. Different team than last year., and they should be judged accordingly.
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You're certainly not wrong. The other side of the same coin is they faced three real tests - two on the road and one neutral - and lost all three. I'm not saying this team CAN'T win an ACC road game other than BC, but they haven't shown anything away from W-S that indicates we should expect them to... yet.
 
Exactly. This team hasn't shown that they can handle top 50 teams in the road.
 
Is there a exact standard for what is a good/bad win by Kenpom rankings or just general guidelines? Assume there is a disparity between home and road, as well.

Not exactly kenpom realated, but has the selection committee made it clear that a good win is better than a bad loss? Or do they cancel each other out equally?
 
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