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The Way Too Early KenPom Report

HailToTheDeacons said:
After 17 games, we're sitting DFL in the ACC, but 43rd in kenpom.
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We have also been between 42-45 for the past 5 games. We have basically done exactly what KP projected almost to a T.

He has picked the outcome in all of our games so far this season. If that continued all season we would finish 15-15 (6-12).
 
So that's a good thing?
 
PhDeac said:
So that's a good thing?
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Is what a good thing? Going 15-15? Being DFL? Neither of those are good things from a long-term standpoint, but we are likely going to finish the year between 15-17 wins. That's just being realistic.
 
A snapshot of the current ACC standings fails to reflect how good or bad teams are unless you want to argue that BC is on the same level as UVA, L'ville and Duke as all are 2-2. Not accurate.

WF is entering a stretch of six games that will give a true measure as to whether WF is a top 50 team or not. WF has home games against Miami, GT and Duke (probably without K); road games against State, BC, Cuse. Every one of the those games is winnable (or losable) and as things presently stand, WF will be no more than 5 point dog in any of those games, and will be a favorite in at least 3 of them. After that 6 game stretch, if WF is still at the bottom of the ACC, then the top 50 ranking can be called a mirage. We shall see.
 
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Pilchard said:
A snapshot of the current ACC standings fails to reflect how good or bad teams are unless you want to argue that BC is on the same level as UVA. BC, UVA, L'ville and Duke as all are 2-2. Not accurate.

WF is entering a stretch of six games that will give a true measure as to whether WF is a top 50 team or not. WF has home games against Miami, GT and Duke (probably without K); road games against State, BC, Cuse. Every one of the those games is winnable (or losable) and as things presently stand WF will be no more than 5 point dog in any of those games, and will be a favorite in at least 3 of them. After that 6 game stretch, if WF is still at the bottom of the ACC, then the top 50 ranking can be called a mirage. We shall see.
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Yup- wrote an article on the upcoming stretch for BSD. We need to win at least 3 of them.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Is what a good thing? Going 15-15? Being DFL? Neither of those are good things from a long-term standpoint, but we are likely going to finish the year between 15-17 wins. That's just being realistic.
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But so far you've treated meeting Kenpom expectations as a good thing. The rest of us have argued that we need to exceed expectations.
 
PhDeac said:
But so far you've treated meeting Kenpom expectations as a good thing. The rest of us have argued that we need to exceed expectations.
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Well we have actually exceeded KenPom's expectations from the start of the season. Earlier I meant we have won every game he said we would win, and lost every game that he said we would lose, but his rankings aren't on wins and losses (they don't matter at all). In the wins we have performed better than he projected, and in the losses we are right around where he said we would be as far as efficiency rankings/final scores. We are a much better team offensively than he projected, so we have exceeded that, and we are about 20 spots worse defensively.

We started the year at 76 and are now at 43.
 
PhDeac said:
But so far you've treated meeting Kenpom expectations as a good thing. The rest of us have argued that we need to exceed expectations.
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When you consider that we are meeting Kenpom expectations AND he thinks we're the 43rd best team in the country, we should maybe let that sink in. Let's hope that's our floor.
 
Wins are good. Lets get more of them. We need to be 5-6 after GT at the worst.
 
PhDeac said:
But so far you've treated meeting Kenpom expectations as a good thing. The rest of us have argued that we need to exceed expectations.
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Before last night Kenpom's calculations showed that the ~40th best team in the country would go 16-14 against our schedule.

I'll ask it again, is it reasonable to expect Manning to have us better than 40th in the country halfway through year 3, given what he took over?
 
Any way to know what our KenPom rank would be if we would have beaten Clemson? Would there be much of a difference?


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You keep arguing about reasonable. I just want to make he NCAA Tournament. Until we do that, the program hasn't met reasonable expectations.
 
VOTSdeac said:
Any way to know what our KenPom rank would be if we would have beaten Clemson? Would there be much of a difference?


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Wins and losses don't matter. We lost 73-68 so if we had won by one point (74-73), and the total number of possessions were the same, we would be slightly better on offense (six more points over the same number of possessions). This would be a very minor shift.
 
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