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The Way Too Early KenPom Report

Any way to know what our KenPom rank would be if we would have beaten Clemson? Would there be much of a difference?


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Depends on how we would have done it. If we maintained the 10+ point lead we would likely be around 30th. If we had won by 1, or lost by 1 then slightly better.

Not trying to sidestep your question or be dense about it, but since wins/losses don't matter to KP at all, it matters what the final score would have been as it impacts offensive/defensive efficiency.
 
FWIW, ESPN recently put out there Basketball Power Index (designed to be a competing model with Kenpom). Wake is #41 and projected to go 16-14 (including last nights win). 5th toughest schedule.
 
Deacs are #38 in Kenpom, #41 in BPI and #45 in Sagarin. Nice numbers for fantasy and conversation at this point in the season, especially given the past several years. It won't buy groceries. What counts are the next twelve games and the ACC tournament. Let's hope they are a pleasure to watch, one game at a time.
 
Deacs are #38 in Kenpom, #41 in BPI and #45 in Sagarin. Nice numbers for assessing the current quality of the team and predicting how the rest of the season will play out. It won't buy groceries. What counts are the next twelve games and the ACC tournament. Let's hope they are a pleasure to watch, one game at a time.

Nitpicking but FIFY.
 
Nitpicking but FIFY.

Just give it a rest, man. Let the guy have his opinion. There was nothing even controversial about it. Your obsessive attention to these threads says that you are incapable of recognizing that people are going to view things in their own ways, ways that are reasonable yet maybe different from you. You're good at the "discuss Wake Forest sports" part, and I appreciate the insights you bring. Just don't forget the "freely" part.

I understand you think this was a lighthearted correction. But your body of work the last few weeks indicates you simply cannot permit another view to be expressed without rushing to put it down. Nearly every time I see the credibility thread bump up to the top it has your name on it.

We're all Deac fans here and we all want the best possible outcome for our players and program. Accept that there are myriad thoughtful opinions on how that goal will be reached.
 
If people want to discuss their opinion that Manning hasn't vastly improved the program or isn't rebuilding fast enough they are certainly free to do so. In fact I encourage it. Most of my posts on this thread have been in hopes of sussing out that discussion.

Most people seem to only want to state their opinion rather than discuss/defend it. When I press for the rationale behind such opinions, the discussion fizzles quickly. If you can't or are unwilling to defend your opinion with rational argument, don't complain when others refuse to view it as "reasonable."
 
So, again, we have a three-year-old, 2800-post thread debating Manning's credibility, with scads of evidence/rationale for both sides, but anyone who disagrees with you is automatically unreasonable. You've proven my point.

We're all pretty intelligent people here. That's what I like about this place. Let's offer our viewpoints and see how it shakes out. It's all good.
 
So, again, we have a three-year-old, 2800-post thread debating Manning's credibility, with scads of evidence/rationale for both sides, but anyone who disagrees with you is automatically unreasonable. You've proven my point.

We're all pretty intelligent people here. That's what I like about this place. Let's offer our viewpoints and see how it shakes out. It's all good.

Lol
 
So, again, we have a three-year-old, 2800-post thread debating Manning's credibility, with scads of evidence/rationale for both sides, but anyone who disagrees with you is automatically unreasonable. You've proven my point.

We're all pretty intelligent people here. That's what I like about this place. Let's offer our viewpoints and see how it shakes out. It's all good.

People that disagree with me aren't automatically unreasonable. But opinions presented without support aren't entitled to a presumption of reasonability.

I don't really care what people's opinions were last year or the year before. I encourage people to change their opinions as they receive new information. Personally I'm much higher on Manning's performance through 2.5 years and his prospects for future success than I was 6 months ago.

As an aside, I do find it ironic that the last time I admitted an opinion contrary to mine was reasonable (my opinion: Klay is not a top 30 player; Reasonable opinion I disagree with: Klay could be slotted in the 26-30 range.), I was openly mocked.

Some skepticism about our future prospects under Manning is a reasonable position, even thought I disagree with it and believe the evidence overwhelmingly points towards optimism.

Outright declarations that Manning hasn't met reasonable expectations so far, or is definitely not the answer going forward, are unreasonable or at least have not been supported by reasonable argument on this board.
 
As we approach bubble watch in February we need our past opponents to continue to help us out.

Xavier has lost three in a row, albeit against strong opponents (@ Villanova, @ Butler, vs. Creighton). Need them to get back on track today at home against Georgetown (Xav -9.5, KenPom projection- 80-69)

Also rooting for Richmond at home against George Mason (Rich - 6, KenPom 76-71) and Clemson at home against Virginia Tech (Clem -6, KenPom 80-73) today.
 
Clemson is an interesting one. On one hand, a few more losses and they'll be knocked completely off the bubble. On the other hand, we don't want our home loss against them to be seen as a black mark, and we probably want to make sure Virginia Tech's resume doesn't get too strong. A win today would make VaTech 15-4 (4-3) with wins vs. Duke and @ Michigan.

Either way, really wish we had been able to win that game.
 
As of this morning, KP projects 18-12 (9-9) finish to the regular season for WF. The game at Cuse on Tuesday is essentially a toss-up 80-79 Cuse; win probability 51/49.
 
As of this morning, KP projects 18-12 (9-9) finish to the regular season for WF. The game at Cuse on Tuesday is essentially a toss-up 80-79 Cuse; win probability 51/49.

Seems realistic.

Split the next two (@ Cuse, vs. Duke)
Take care of business when favored (@ BC, vs. GaTech, vs. NCSU, vs. Pitt)
Steal a remaining dog (@ VaTech, vs. Louisville, @ Clemson are probably best bets)
 
What does KP project about vs Duke and @BC?

BC played UNC tough yesterday. The odds of Bowman going cold against us twice are pretty slim.
 
Duke 83 WF 81 Win probability 45%
WF 85 BC 76 Win probability 78%

BC on the road will be tough. They are 2-2 at home beating Cuse and State by 8+. They also played UNC tough at home yesterday. Only UVA worked BC at BC -- 71-54.
 
Q for KP dorks: we score a lot of points but we don't play particularly fast (we don't press, not particularly fast in shooting the ball). Am I wrong or are we a very efficient offensive team?
 
Q for KP dorks: we score a lot of points but we don't play particularly fast (we don't press, not particularly fast in shooting the ball). Am I wrong or are we a very efficient offensive team?

It is really enjoyable to watch. I love the flow of our offense.
 
Clemson is an interesting one. On one hand, a few more losses and they'll be knocked completely off the bubble. On the other hand, we don't want our home loss against them to be seen as a black mark, and we probably want to make sure Virginia Tech's resume doesn't get too strong. A win today would make VaTech 15-4 (4-3) with wins vs. Duke and @ Michigan.

Either way, really wish we had been able to win that game.

I really hope that game doesn't end up being the difference. But if the Tigers are worse than we thought, that gives us a better chance to beat them at their house, which I didn't think was likely before the conference season started. Now it's more realistic.
 
Clemson's ACC schedule eases up the rest of the way.

They have 13 ACC games are left 8 are at home. Clemson is now done with UVA, UNC, L'ville and ND. Clemson will likely be favored in its next 3 games. Win those and they are back in the mix at 4-5. It starts tonight with a home tilt against VT.
 
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