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Remaining basketball games

Aren't we projected to win tomorrow? How would that change our projected wins?

KenPom uses percentages to predict games.

Wake is currently at an expected 8.21 wins (2 wins already, and 6.21 more expected). If we win tomorrow at 56%, then we "gain" the 44% that we do not have from State (because we get to 3, not 2.56 for winning).

That puts us at 3 wins, with an expected (if the percentages stayed the same, which it won't depending on how much we would hypothetically win by) 5.65 wins left, so that puts us at 8.65 projected wins. That's above 8.50, so we would be projected to go 9-9 in conference.
 
I see an opening line of NC St -2.5 tomorrow.

So yeah, the people who make money off of projecting lines don't think we will win tomorrow. Not saying we won't, but if KenPom is better than Vegas, he should be extremely, extremely rich.
 
So yeah, the people who make money off of projecting lines don't think we will win tomorrow. Not saying we won't, but if KenPom is better than Vegas, he should be extremely, extremely rich.

The line at the three places I check all opened at Wake -1 and have since moved to Wake +2.5.
 
Anyone know how often we have covered on the road under Manning?
 
Anyone know how often we have covered on the road under Manning?

I don't know those exact answers, but I did some research this morning on the 20 game losing streak. These are based on the win expectancy from KP at the start of each game (so not the final KP ranking, but at the start of each game). These are the percentages each year that we would go winless.

2015: 9.7% chance to go winless
2016: 22.1% chance to go winless
2017: 61.5% to go winless (through two games)

In total: 1.33% chance over 20 games to go winless

The 1.33% number is also much higher than what it would be if you took each game into consideration. In at least 5 of those we had a greater than 50% chance to win the game at one point in the second half. Last year against Pitt we opened with a 16% chance to win, and with 32 seconds left we had an 80.7% chance to win. Under Manning we have outperformed what is expected of us on the road from a Vegas standpoint, we just haven't won any games (which sounds really weird).

Our expected W/L record based on the odds would be 5-15. It's quite a statistical anomaly that we have managed to not win a single one.

During 7 of those games over the past 20 we have lost by 5 or less or gone into OT, so I know we covered those games. I would guess we have covered slightly more than 50%.

This is the first time since we beat VPI in 2014 that we have been favored on the road against a conference team. The next closest was in 2015 against FSU (lost in double overtime) when we opened at a 40.7% chance.
 
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I'll be there tomorrow to pull the Deacons through. The streak will be at two tomorrow.
 
KP isn't better than Vegas - largely because Vegas can account for injuries/suspensions. KP projects what will happen based in what has already occurred and doesn't change it based on players not playing that have previously contributed.
 
I know we really need to only win 1 of the next 2, but all the same I'd rather not spend 3 days with the sky is falling before winning the next one. I am in no way saying we are going to win tomorrow, just that it would certainly psychologically better for the fan base than winning next week.

Some of Wake's best teams 1995 (5-3), 1996 (4-4), 2005 (5-3) didn't rip through away games, so from that perspective a team that could win 3 or 4 on the road would be pretty darn good (even in the expanded schedule).

Hopefully, Collins can back up his postgame comments and deliver a road win for Manning.
 
I know we really need to only win 1 of the next 2, but all the same I'd rather not spend 3 days with the sky is falling before winning the next one.

Just steer clear of the boards. Problem solved
 
Thinking tomorrow is going to be a great game. I think the GT game was a wake up call to our young team that just because you are supposed to win, does not mean anything at all in the ACC. Guys pretty much just expected to come home from BC and things magically be better because State was playing at home and then let one of the worst three point shooting teams in the country shoot lights out. State definitely came out with a different defensive intensity against Pitt than any other game this season, and even though there were breakdowns in the second half the defense was much improved even though Pitt could not miss at one point early in the second half.

Lot of pressure on both coaches tomorrow, IMO. Obviously from Gott's perspective with this being his most talented team at State since he came here, losing tomorrow will probably really heat his seat up. I think right now a lot of State fans are trying to take solace in the fact that Gott's team two years ago was 15-11 (4-7) at one point then ended up knocking off Nova in the Tournament and was winning at halftime of their Sweet Sixteen game against UL. But, after last year that seems like a whole lot longer than two years ago. From Manning's perspective, I think tomorrow is a must for seeing where Wake's program is currently at. Whole lot riding on a game between two teams that are 2-4 in conference.

Hoping for a great game tomorrow, and here's to no injuries.
 
It has been 34 conference games (Janaury/February 2015) since WF won back to back ACC games (both of those were at home). WF has not won 3 or more consecutive ACC games since 2010 (113 ACC games ago). Fun times with stats.
 
Whole lot riding on a game between two teams that are 2-4 in conference.

Hoping for a great game tomorrow, and here's to no injuries.

Besides all the above discussion, there really is quite a bit riding on this game. The winner of this game would move from near the bottom of the conference to potentially the middle (looking at the games, barring upsets there could be a bunch of 3-4 teams 'cuse, Miami, GT, maybe VT and the winner of this game) that would effectively create a tie for 7th or 8th in the conf. This game puts the winner back in the mix with the rest of the conference.
 
Other than the ACC implications this one is big for NCAA hopes down the road as well. Easier path for the winner for certain.
 
This one could go either way. A poor road team going up against an erratic team with easily the best player on the court.
 
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