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John Collins is #2 in KP's All-ACC Ratings

MichDeac25 said:
Your assuming a player makes it to a 2nd contract. What's the percentage of players that wash out after their rookie deals? Or get smaller contracts just to give them a second chance?
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That's literally what I said. You are better off coming back if 1. you can improve your draft stock with one more year of college AND 2. you end up not being a rotation player in the league. Both of those things.
 
FckVwls said:
What are you talking about, getting to be an UFA for the first time (after rookie and 2nd contract) a year younger is a big advantage. More likely to get a bigger/longer deal.

The market isn't that inefficient. That is to say, if it made sense financially for sure fire mid-to-late 1st round picks to go back to school you would see a lot of them do it. But they don't. Because it is a poor financial decision. Collins could be an exception if he really loves school, but it would be an exception.
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Collins would be a UFA at 25 instead of 24, the second contract length and quality will have nothing to do with his age and everything to do with his level of play coming off a rookie deal. In fact, if he's closer to his prime at 25 then the second contract is likely to be bigger if he waits a year.

Assuming the same second contract and around a 5% interest rate it makes sense financially to wait a year if you can boost your draft stock by 10+ spots. Most kids don't do it because they'd rather take the guaranteed couple million right now and because most aren't capable of improving 10 slots.
 
deacphan said:
i think most people are trying to analyze it by what we are privy to. i'd say looking at what players in similar positions have done in the past is more telling than some other notion posited here.
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Exactly. He gone.
 
Then we absolutely, positively must make the NCAAT with Collins this season.

LET'S MAKE IT HAPPEN DEACS!

TIME TO GO DANCING AGAIN!! :dancindeac:
 
FckVwls said:
That's literally what I said. You are better off coming back if 1. you can improve your draft stock with one more year of college AND 2. you end up not being a rotation player in the league. Both of those things.
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Then that's a HUGE risk. Players jump early for immediate money. But the real money in the NBA is sticking in the league past your rookie contract, which is only guaranteed for 2 years. (They can cut you after 2 years and you don't get the remaining years on your contract.) The best guarantee of sticking in the league is being athletically gifted enough and then being prepared to play early in your NBA career. I think the latter is where Collins needs another year.
 
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First of all, they can't decide to cut you after two years. They have to decide on your 3rd year option after your rookie year. And since 1. most rookies suck pretty bad at playing in the NBA and 2. The 3rd year is really cheap ....you pretty much always get a 3rd year unless you're a total disaster.

Second of all, I seriously doubt that being older so you are better prepared to play right away has any correlation to getting a solid 2nd contract. I would welcome some data showing otherwise, but I seriously doubt it.
 
FckVwls said:
First of all, they can't decide to cut you after two years. They have to decide on your 3rd year option after your rookie year. And since 1. most rookies suck pretty bad at playing in the NBA and 2. The 3rd year is really cheap ....you pretty much always get a 3rd year unless you're a total disaster.

Second of all, I seriously doubt that being older so you are better prepared to play right away has any correlation to getting a solid 2nd contract. I would welcome some data showing otherwise, but I seriously doubt it.
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PJ Haiston comes to mind.
 
FckVwls said:
First of all, they can't decide to cut you after two years. They have to decide on your 3rd year option after your rookie year. And since 1. most rookies suck pretty bad at playing in the NBA and 2. The 3rd year is really cheap ....you pretty much always get a 3rd year unless you're a total disaster.

Second of all, I seriously doubt that being older so you are better prepared to play right away has any correlation to getting a solid 2nd contract. I would welcome some data showing otherwise, but I seriously doubt it.
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It's not just being older, it's having a better understanding of the game and having developed your own game and body. And there is a mountain of data of players jumping early and washing out. Tyler Ennis jumped after 1 year, was drafted 19, and is on his 3rd team in 3 years, currently averaging 6ppg. What kind of contract is he looking at for that mega-2nd contract? Mitch McGary, drafted 21st after two seasons at Michigan, Thunder picked up 3rd year option and then waived him after that. Out of the league.
 
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MichDeac25 said:
It's not just being older, it's having a better understanding of the game and having developed your own game and body. And there is a mountain of data of players jumping early and washing out. Tyler Ennis jumped after 1 year, was drafted 19, and is on his 3rd team in 3 years, currently averaging 6ppg. What kind of contract is he looking at for that mega-2nd contract? Mitch McGary, drafted 21st after two seasons at Michigan, Thunder picked up 3rd year option and then waived him after that. Out of the league.
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So I think you are missing the point. Do you really think Tyler Ennis' contract outlook would be better if he had come back to Syracuse?

Players of all types don't make it. It's really hard, you have to be one of the best probably 250-300 basketball players in the world to get a good 2nd NBA contract. For every Ennis or Tyus Jones there is a Shabazz Napier or Norris Cole.

also McGary got paid 3 full years, showing my point...
 
FckVwls said:
First of all, they can't decide to cut you after two years. They have to decide on your 3rd year option after your rookie year. And since 1. most rookies suck pretty bad at playing in the NBA and 2. The 3rd year is really cheap ....you pretty much always get a 3rd year unless you're a total disaster.

Second of all, I seriously doubt that being older so you are better prepared to play right away has any correlation to getting a solid 2nd contract. I would welcome some data showing otherwise, but I seriously doubt it.
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An additional year in college and then 4 years in the NBA probably results in a slightly better player than 4 years in the NBA. It's an extra year of basketball and one year closer to a players peak. All things being equal (which they never are), that should lead to a better second contract (albeit a year later).
 
FckVwls said:
So I think you are missing the point. Do you really think Tyler Ennis' contract outlook would be better if he had come back to Syracuse?

Players of all types don't make it. It's really hard, you have to be one of the best probably 250-300 basketball players in the world to get a good 2nd NBA contract. For every Ennis or Tyus Jones there is a Shabazz Napier or Norris Cole.

also McGary got paid 3 full years, showing my point...
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No, you're missing the point. Yes, Ennis would have been a better player if he came back a 2nd year, even in the crappy Syracuse system that doesn't prepare players for the NBA as well. Everyone in college told him he needed another year. He came in, unprepared, got lost in the shuffle, and now isn't looking like he's going to stick.

Mitch McGary got 3 years and is out of the league. If your point is to get the money while you can, that's shortsighted. The real money is in being a great player and sticking in the league long-term.
 
MichDeac25 said:
No, you're missing the point. Yes, Ennis would have been a better player if he came back a 2nd year, even in the crappy Syracuse system that doesn't prepare players for the NBA as well. Everyone in college told him he needed another year. He came in, unprepared, got lost in the shuffle, and now isn't looking like he's going to stick.

Mitch McGary got 3 years and is out of the league. If your point is to get the money while you can, that's shortsighted. The real money is in being a great player and sticking in the league long-term.
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No my point is that in order to get a good 2nd NBA contact you need to be one of the best 250-300 basketball players in the world. I don't think John Collins has a better chance of reaching that level of play by staying at Wake Forest for another year. College basketball is pretty crappy in general, I'd never advocate for anyone staying that would be a locked in 1st round pick.
 
MichDeac25 said:
No, you're missing the point. Yes, Ennis would have been a better player if he came back a 2nd year, even in the crappy Syracuse system that doesn't prepare players for the NBA as well. Everyone in college told him he needed another year. He came in, unprepared, got lost in the shuffle, and now isn't looking like he's going to stick.

Mitch McGary got 3 years and is out of the league. If your point is to get the money while you can, that's shortsighted. The real money is in being a great player and sticking in the league long-term.
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Only if you can actually be a great player. Without discussing Collins directly (he may end up having a long NBA Career whether he leaves after this year or next), almost any draftee should count on not making it as an NBA veteran. Without looking at the numbers too closely, I would imagine the majority of guys drafted after 15 or so last less than 4-5 years in the league. Most guys drafted do not turn out to be great players. And as history shows, the NBA is willing to draft on potential, whether you actually turn out to be productive or not.

If you leave now and get a 80-90% chance of getting $4M + guaranteed, even if you fail, you still have a fairly decent option to play in Europe or somewhere else overseas for solid money. A 1st round pick is almost always going to get a chance in the highest European leagues after they wash out of the NBA. 2nd round picks and undrafted guys will get opportunities, but not as many (and generally with not as high of a guaranteed salary).

Collins, at his best, does not strike me as a starter on a good team. He doesn't appear to have the lateral quickness or general athletic explosiveness to go with his superior touch and footwork in the post. So it is best for him to get the money when he can.
 
There's a flipside to the second contract argument that also dictates that a first-round pick come out.

When MD PG Melo Trimble was a frosh, he contemplated coming out as a projected back-half of the 1st round pick. He stayed, and the argument was after his sophomore year, he would be a lottery pick. Well, Trimble's sophomore year exposed weaknesses in his game that caused him to no longer be projected as a first round pick at all. So, he stayed for his junior year, and again, it looks like Trimble won't be a first round pick after this year either, and there is no chance he will ever be a lottery pick. So, when you have a shot for guaranteed seven figures, you take it. Maybe, you can hit it even bigger on your 2nd contract; maybe there is no second contract, but a guaranteed 3 years of salary at $3 million ($1 million per year - which is going to rise as the result of the new CBA) for the last pick of the first round is life changing money. Would never fault anyone for making the choice to head to the NBA if NBA first round money was a certainty.
 
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Pilchard said:
There's a flipside to the second contract argument that also dictates that a first-round pick come out.

When MD PG Melo Trimble was a frosh, he contemplated coming out as a projected back-half of the 1st round pick. He stayed, and the argument was after his sophomore year, he would be a lottery pick. Well, Trimble's sophomore year exposed weaknesses in his game that caused him to no longer be projected as a first round pick at all. So, he stayed for his junior year, and again, it looks like Trimble won't be a first round pick after this year either, and there is no chance he will ever be a lottery pick. So, when you have a shot for guaranteed seven figures, you take it. Maybe, you can hit it even bigger on your 2nd contract; maybe there is no second contract, but a guaranteed 3 years of salary at $3 million for the last pick of the first round is life changing money. Would never fault anyone for making the choice to head to the NBA if NBA first round money was a certainty.
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Yep, Melo had the hot shooting freshman year. And, given his size and athletic profile, he needs to be able to shoot at an elite level to be an NBAer. His soph year his percentages / efficiency really cooled off and he was basically cooked. May never play in the NBA.
 
DeaconSig said:
Only if you can actually be a great player. Without discussing Collins directly (he may end up having a long NBA Career whether he leaves after this year or next), almost any draftee should count on not making it as an NBA veteran. Without looking at the numbers too closely, I would imagine the majority of guys drafted after 15 or so last less than 4-5 years in the league. Most guys drafted do not turn out to be great players. And as history shows, the NBA is willing to draft on potential, whether you actually turn out to be productive or not.

If you leave now and get a 80-90% chance of getting $4M + guaranteed, even if you fail, you still have a fairly decent option to play in Europe or somewhere else overseas for solid money. A 1st round pick is almost always going to get a chance in the highest European leagues after they wash out of the NBA. 2nd round picks and undrafted guys will get opportunities, but not as many (and generally with not as high of a guaranteed salary).

Collins, at his best, does not strike me as a starter on a good team. He doesn't appear to have the lateral quickness or general athletic explosiveness to go with his superior touch and footwork in the post. So it is best for him to get the money when he can.
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Then what does it matter if you go early or stay? Collins has 1st round ability. I don't think anyone thinks he would fall to the 2nd round next year. It's really only a question as to whether he improves his stock. At worst, one extra year could conceivably make him a better player and improve his chances of sticking. (And I do reject the notion that staying a year is not as good developmentally as going to the league. He's playing under a coach who was in the league, playing the same position, for a long time, and is playing in the best basketball conference in the country.) So how much does 1 year matter then if he washes out in 3 years anyway? Maybe he makes more at a higher draft pick after Jr year.
 
Pilchard said:
There's a flipside to the second contract argument that also dictates that a first-round pick come out.

When MD PG Melo Trimble was a frosh, he contemplated coming out as a projected back-half of the 1st round pick. He stayed, and the argument was after his sophomore year, he would be a lottery pick. Well, Trimble's sophomore year exposed weaknesses in his game that caused him to no longer be projected as a first round pick at all. So, he stayed for his junior year, and again, it looks like Trimble won't be a first round pick after this year either, and there is no chance he will ever be a lottery pick. So, when you have a shot for guaranteed seven figures, you take it. Maybe, you can hit it even bigger on your 2nd contract; maybe there is no second contract, but a guaranteed 3 years of salary at $3 million ($1 million per year - which is going to rise as the result of the new CBA) for the last pick of the first round is life changing money. Would never fault anyone for making the choice to head to the NBA if NBA first round money was a certainty.
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He's 6'3, 185. A dime a dozen.
 
MichDeac25 said:
Then what does it matter if you go early or stay? Collins has 1st round ability. I don't think anyone thinks he would fall to the 2nd round next year. It's really only a question as to whether he improves his stock. At worst, one extra year could conceivably make him a better player and improve his chances of sticking. (And I do reject the notion that staying a year is not as good developmentally as going to the league. He's playing under a coach who was in the league, playing the same position, for a long time, and is playing in the best basketball conference in the country.) So how much does 1 year matter then if he washes out in 3 years anyway? Maybe he makes more at a higher draft pick after Jr year.
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Maybe he doesn't. Maybe it is shown he can't shoot outside of 10 feet (right now, the thought is he will be able to develop an outside shot). Maybe it is shown he is a minus defender as teams try to run him through a bunch of picks and rolls. Maybe he gets hurt, but no so bad that the insurance policy gets called into play. Maybe his FT % goes down.

There is absolutely a way for a projected lottery/mid-first round pick to slip into the 2nd round. To suggest there is no downside to staying is lunacy.
 
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