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John Collins is #2 in KP's All-ACC Ratings

So we are projecting a freshman to come in and be a good defender?

Ok.

I do expect him to be a better option than anybody we have right now. Not at all a lockdown defender, but right now we don't have anybody who can guard the 3 (that we know of). Our best option, probably McClinton, is a garbage man for everything else. Chaundee will be an upgrade from day one, if only looking at his defense.
 
Can someone post Chaudee's defensive mixtape?
 
I think it's clear that we are projecting him to be a good defender because he is a lanky 6'4-6'5 guard who has above average athleticism as rated by high school scouts. That athleticism translates well to the college game and is one of the bigger attributes used to assess whether somebody will be a good defender at the next level. Throw in his "college ready" body from a strength standpoint and that makes more sense.
 
I think it's clear that we are projecting him to be a good defender because he is a lanky 6'4-6'5 guard who has above average athleticism as rated by high school scouts. That athleticism translates well to the college game and is one of the bigger attributes used to assess whether somebody will be a good defender at the next level. Throw in his "college ready" body from a strength standpoint and that makes more sense.

Like Crawford is a good defender?
 
Like Crawford is a good defender?

Right, there is obviously speculation on my part, much like reliance on just a one person sample size in your opinion.

I based my opinion on what I have seen out of his lateral foot speed and athleticism, primarily on the offensive side of the ball (which is where mosts mixtape lie, and I know that was your point by asking for his defensive mixtape). Not to mention the idea that most top 100 recruits are above average in terms of athleticism and that translates to a better than average chance that they will be at least replacement level defenders.

Certainly conjecture in my opinion that is based on the above, and we will see when he gets here what he is capable of, but given the information I have I would project him to be at least a replacement level defender at the 3 position, which would be an upgrade over anybody we have on our roster right now.
 
For 35 minutes, we are capable of playing Top 25 ball regardless of how we defend the 3. We can't assume replacing one of our best players with a freshman is going to fix that problem. I've got to see evidence we can finish with this lineup before believing we can finish with a different lineup. Arians rarely plays in the last 5 minutes anyway.

this sorta feels like the argument we saw all last year about how we'd be way worse with Thomas and CMM leaving
 
ACC Sports came out with their mid-season all ACC teams today. Two writers (Mrk Carroll and Brian Geisinger) have Collins as 1st team all conference. David Glenn has Collins as 3rd team all conference. All 3 have Luke Kennard, Justin Jackson and Bonzie Colson as 1st team players. Glenn placed the following players ahead of Collins:

Donovan Mitchell
Dennis Smith
Tyler Lydon
Jaron Blossomgame
Joel Barry
London Perrantes
Ben Lammers
 
For 35 minutes, we are capable of playing Top 25 ball regardless of how we defend the 3. We can't assume replacing one of our best players with a freshman is going to fix that problem. I've got to see evidence we can finish with this lineup before believing we can finish with a different lineup. Arians rarely plays in the last 5 minutes anyway.

"one of our best players"
 
For 35 minutes, we are capable of playing Top 25 ball regardless of how we defend the 3. We can't assume replacing one of our best players with a freshman is going to fix that problem. I've got to see evidence we can finish with this lineup before believing we can finish with a different lineup. Arians rarely plays in the last 5 minutes anyway.

Less than 2 weeks ago (if that) you were arguing that if Manning would simply play our best players more minutes, especially at the end of games, we would have beaten UNC, Clemson, Xavier and Northwestern.

Arians is at best our 5th best player. He's efficient on offense but his usage rate is the lowest of any player getting regular minutes. He's also the worst or second worst defender on the team.

I went back and looked at all the wing players ranked 21-40 in RSCI over the last 10 years (Chaundee was #34 after the summer, final rankings come out late spring of this year). Out of a sample of 97, roughly 80% contributed in some way (i.e. rotation player or better). Roughly 40% contributed at the level of a quality P5 starter (think Keyshawn Woods, with Dinos at the low end). Only 5% were stars their freshman year (think Collins with Bryant just missing the cut).

So basically the median wing player in that range is a borderline P5 level starter. Depending on your opinion of Dinos, our current roster has 4 ACC level starters. If Chaundee plays to rank he will be the 5th at our biggest position of need.

It's perfectly reasonable to expect Chaundee to be an instant upgrade over Arians or Wilbekin, especially on the defensive end, even as a freshman.
 
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Less than 2 weeks ago (if that) you were arguing that if Manning would simply play our best players more minutes, especially at the end of games, we would have beaten UNC, Clemson, Xavier and Northwestern.

Arians is at best our 5th best player. He's efficient on offense but his usage rate is the lowest of any player getting regular minutes. He's also the worst or second worst defender on the team.

I went back and looked at all the wing players ranked 21-40 in RSCI over the last 10 years (Chaundee was #34 after the summer, final rankings come out late spring of this year). Out of a sample of 97, roughly 80% contributed in some way (i.e. rotation player or better). Roughly 40% contributed at the level of a quality P5 starter (think Keyshawn Woods, with Dinos at the low end). Only 5% were stars their freshman year (think Collins with Bryant at the low end).

So basically the median wing player in that range is a borderline P5 level starter. Depending on your opinion of Dinos, our current roster has 4 ACC level starters. If Chaundee plays to rank he will be the 5th at our biggest position of need.

It's perfectly reasonable to expect Chaundee to be an instant upgrade over Arians or Wilbekin, especially on the defensive end, even as a freshman.

I'm not arguing that he's not an upgrade. I'm concerned that an upgrade isn't enough without addressing why the talent we have plays so much worse at the end of games.
 
I'm not arguing that he's not an upgrade. I'm concerned that an upgrade isn't enough without addressing why the talent we have plays so much worse at the end of games.

I thought the problem was that Manning wasn't maximizing our talent because he wasn't allocating minutes effectively.
 
Oh, do we just have one above average (relative to our team) wing coming next year? I thought we had three total, or 15 more fouls.

Do at least five come from a player who may be a net offensive plus, as well. Then we have a 6'9" guy with a seven something wingspan who can apparently move well enough to handle the ball some. And what about the five more from a physical specimen who is apparently offensively limited, but defensively minded, if not gifted.

Also, is it possible the two freshmen develop enough to see the floor some and are they at a minimum taller than wilbekin?

Is it crazy to say that between 2 sophomores and three freshmen, all of whom are objectively harder to shoot over than Wilbekin and hypothetically quicker laterally than Arians, that we see better offensive and defensive production from the three next year?

Is it possible or probable that 2/5 of those work out to out produce Arians either combined or individually?

NO! Bad COACHING will prevent player development AS USUAL! SAD!
 
I thought the problem was that Manning wasn't maximizing our talent because he wasn't allocating minutes effectively.

That's part of it. For example, going small down the stretch.
 
As we sit at the midpoint of ACC play, the picture for 2016-17 All-ACC selections is coming into focus. If the season ended today, here is how the ACCSports.com team would vote:

First team
Luke Kennard, Duke
Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame
John Collins, Wake Forest
Jamel Artis, Pittsburgh
Justin Jackson, North Carolina

Second team
Ben Lammers, Georgia Tech
Donovan Mitchell, Louisville
Michael Young, Pittsburgh
Joel Berry, North Carolina
Jaron Blossomgame, Clemson

Third team
Dennis Smith Jr., NC State
Dwayne Bacon, Florida State
London Perrantes, Virginia
Tyler Lydon, Syracuse
Jonathan Isaac, Florida Sta
 
Hmmm, where's Giles?

In a parallel universe where Giles chose Wake, he's #4...pretty good for a frosh...and is considered a lock for the lottery thanks to Manning's tutelage. It's worth noting that in this parallel universe the Deacs have beaten Clemson, Duke and Virginia, but are still only 3 - 6 in conference play, and, despite beating 'nova, KP rates the team 43rd due to many bad losses (ahem, UTEP?!).

On the boards, the credibility watch thread posters are genuinely enthused by the marquis wins and is speculating on how Wellman needs to "open up the purse strings," to ensure Manning stays for the long-haul. The Credibility Watch thread Watch Thread, however, is apoplectic over the large number of bad losses (hello, UNC?! (should mention that UNC lost 1/2 of their scholly's and banned from post-season for the past 2 years due to the cheating scandal)) and insist that Manning is both too inexperienced and arrogant to coach at this level ("Man-down - Triage, STAT!!" is a popular spin-off thread).

Disco Dan, who recovered remarkably well from his shoulder issues thanks to the stem-cell therapy available, bumped into Manning after a gig at the Blind Tiger in Greensboro. Manning was obviously very drunk, and as they were shooting the breeze Manning let slip how he's trying to work behind the scenes to snare a "true High-Major" head coaching gig, and called Wake Forest fans, "a bunch of basket-cases." After much contemplation, Dan saw this as a scoop too good to pass-up, perhaps blinded by his own ambition after narrowly missing out on a Pulitzer for his book, Chicken and Football - Conversations from Tobacco Road. Identical to our own universe, many new threads were posted once that MTOW blog post was published.
 
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