• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Danny Manning Credibility Watch Thread Credibility Watch

Does Danny Manning coach the girls team too ? Because they beat the Tar Heels last night in Chapel Hill. Good Credibility there.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
no nuance with this, can we all agree to this big if, if this team makes the NCAA tournament then this season was an unmitigated success for the coach and program. that should be 100% consensus right?
Click to expand...

Yes. Without a doubt.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
What if we lost to Illinois State or St. Mary's this year? Seems like you would view this differently than losing to Boston College or Georgia Tech, even though Wake would be underdogs on a neutral court against both Illinois State and St. Mary's but would be favored anywhere they played BC/GT. The former would be a bad loss because Wake should never lose to those teams, while the latter is okay because they happen to be in the same conference?
Click to expand...

Eh, no. It isn't quite that clean. I don't only care about high major wins. For one, there are some mid majors that invest similar resources to us (Xavier) or have very good coaches who have turned down opportunities to move-up (Saint Mary's, Gonzaga). Similarly, there are some high majors that have a long track record of incompetence (Georgia Tech) or under-investment (BC).

I don't have a system or claim to have a system, but I think it more or less sorts out to this (in a down year):
-Loss to team outside of top 100 = negative reaction
-Win to top 50 team @ Home = positive reaction
-Win to top 80 team away = positive reaction

Or, another way to think about, will the result be listed as a positive or negative on a NCAA resume?
 
My issues with Coach Manning as it stands right now are largely driven by 2 factors:

(1) the ACC collapse last year- to go from 9-3 with wins over UCLA and Indiana to 2 wins in conference was horrible, and I think, in general, good coaches don't lose teams the way he lost that team last year; and
(2) the 2016 recruiting class looks atrocious at this point- especially at the wing positions, where we had the most time to offer players.

If he had backed up the 2015 recruiting class with a similar class (2 top 100s and a top 125 or so) and won 3-4 more conference games last year, I would be in a much better frame of mind regarding his chances. As it is, I have no faith in our ability to get to 7 wins in conference this year and feel like it is just as likely that we make the tourney as a 8-10 seed next year, lose in the 1st round, lose some combination of Crawford/Collins/Brown after the season, and end up back out of the tourney in the future than it is that we actually build something like a top 25 team next year that starts a run of consecutive tourney appearances.

But ultimately, if we get to 7 this year and back it up with a top 20 or so recruiting class next year (including at least 1 impact player), I will be much more likley to believe we are on the right track.
 
WFU Lurker said:
Eh, no. It isn't quite that clean. I don't only care about high major wins. For one, there are some mid majors that invest similar resources to us (Xavier) or have very good coaches who have turned down opportunities to move-up (Saint Mary's, Gonzaga). Similarly, there are some high majors that have a long track record of incompetence (Georgia Tech) or under-investment (BC).

I don't have a system or claim to have a system, but I think it more or less sorts out to this (in a down year):
-Loss to team outside of top 100 = negative reaction
-Win to top 50 team @ Home = positive reaction
-Win to top 80 team away = positive reaction

Or, another way to think about, will the result be listed as a positive or negative on a NCAA resume?
Click to expand...

Sure, but a loss to UTEP this year would be a much worse loss for Wake than Bucknell.
 
Strickland33 said:
Do some of y'all watch these losses and enjoy the taste of losing? I'm confused.
Click to expand...

Why would you ever get that notion?

The fact that I rely heavily on stats to influence my opinion about how good a team is doesn't mean that I don't get nervous and upset about wins and losses.

I was really nervous during the Miami game and felt the same way that y'all did about us blowing leads. I didn't think "oh well KP probably has us at 85% to win, so we're good to go."

Feelings during the game and reasonable analysis and viewing of what happened afterwards are two completely different things. It's emotions vs. logic/statistics. There's plenty of room for both.

If we lose to State on a half court buzzer beater tomorrow I'm not going to feel better because I know there was a 44% chance of us losing.
 
The reality is if Gott could coach at all State would be Top 15-20. If Gott was even an adequate coach, State should be an easy double digit favorite over the Deacs. Hopefully, they won't just play.
 
RJKarl said:
The reality is if Gott could coach at all State would be Top 15-20. If Gott was even an adequate coach, State should be an easy double digit favorite over the Deacs. Hopefully, they won't just play.
Click to expand...

If they were a ten point favorite over us tomorrow then they would be a top 10 team in the country. We aren't expected to be a DD underdog the rest of the year.
 
If Duke is healthy, they should be double digit foverites over us as should Louisville.

If State was coached at all, they could be basically impossible to defend. Rown, Dorin and Henderson are all excellent 3 point shooters. Smith is outstanding at driving and dishing. Abu and Yurseven are above average bigs.

I'm not sure if I'll be in an ark or a submarine within an hour.
 
RJKarl said:
If Duke is healthy, they should be double digit foverites over us as should Louisville.

If State was coached at all, they could be basically impossible to defend. Rown, Dorin and Henderson are all excellent 3 point shooters. Smith is outstanding at driving and dishing. Abu and Yurseven are above average bigs.

I'm not sure if I'll be in an ark or a submarine within an hour.
Click to expand...

Right, if they get Jefferson back then we could be 10 point dogs in Durham. We are currently around a 4 point dog here against Louisville so it would be close on the road, probably around 10-11.
 
Wasn't last year the first time we lost in Cameron by single digits in a very very long time?
 
images
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Sounds right, doesn't really impact the game this year though.
Click to expand...

Usually if I've done something before, I rely on that experience the next time I do it.
 
I think we learned how to win against Miami, so I assume we will win out to be quite honest.
 
PhDeac said:
There's something a little weird going on in these threads. People are using Kenpom and other advanced stats as #evidence that Wake basketball is back in arguments with people who are waiting for actual wins.
Click to expand...

I don't think there is anyone in this thread advocating for a solely wins based standard. I'm assuming you would agree that Duke is better than College of Charleston despite winning fewer games.
 
I see people arguing for assumed wins over actual wins.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top