Pilchard
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Posting the State KP analysis a little early:
NC State is 13-6 (2-4) and #76 in KP's ratings.
State has 2 top 100 wins (#50 VT by 26!!!) and Pitt (#62 by 5). State has lost to Creighton (#17 by 18), (#74 Illinois by 14), (#34 Miami by 18!!!), (#5 UNC by 51!!!), (#168 BC by 8), and (#103 GT by 10). Only the GT loss was at home. State played a weak OOC schedule (#279). Their best OOC win was an OT win over #138 Tennessee State.
State plays at a fast tempo (#55), and in ACC games, State has the shortest average duration on defensive possessions in the ACC -- 15.1 seconds (meaning the Pack are susceptible to the transition baskets - essentially the opposite of UVA).
State is #47 on offense. The Pack is not rated particularly high in any offensive category (other than not having its shots blocked), but they do shoot reasonably well (#52 in effective FG% - 38% from 3 (#58); 52% from 2 (#64)). State is not overly reliant on the 3 point shot as only 26.8% of the Pack offense comes from 3s (#268). State is a mediocre FT shooting team (70.7% #140).
State has had problems on D. They are #169 on defense, and among their weaknesses is that the Pack do not force turnovers (TOs on 16.6% of possessions on D #301) and the Pack doesn't keep teams off the offensive glass (#191). In ACC games, State is 2nd to last in defending the 3 as they allow 43.4% shooting on 3s in ACC games; as stated above, the Pack defense often gives up the quick first look.
State has decent size: 6-3, 6-5, 6-7, 6-8, 7-0. The Pack is not deep (#239 in bench minutes). None of State's bigs shoot the 3.
Frosh PG Dennis Smith is State's best player and a lottery pick. He was dominant in the win over VT (Smith had a triple double 27-11-11), but has struggled at times in ACC games (averaging 4 TOs a game in conference play). State does have multiple players that can hit the 3 (Smith 37%; Henderson 39%, Dorn 48%, Rowan 42%). 7-0 Center Omar Yurseven hasn't been much of factor in ACC play, scoring more than 5 points once in 6 games shooting 46% from the field (he did pull down 16 boards in the last game against Pitt). One other State player of note, Beejay Anya is now listed at 320, but I'm guessing that is understated as he apparently spent the Summer on the competitive eating circuit. Maybe Biggie Smalls faked his death and moved to Raleigh. When BJ is in the game, push the ball and get a lay up, Anya will stop at the scorer's table for a doughnut break.
WF will get State's A game tomorrow. The Pack are coming off a fortuitous win (Pitt blew a late 7 point lead) to break a 3 game losing streak. After hosting WF, State will play at Duke and at L'ville. So, a loss tomorrow has State facing a 2-7 start to the conference season. History does not favor the Deacs as WF has not won at State since the 2005 nut punch game (12 games ago).
The State game will test WF's ability to build on a good win. With a week off, after a close loss to UNC, a rested WF team worked a solid Miami team by 17. Now, WF just has 2 days off before traveling to Raleigh, a place where WF has not won in more than a decade, to play a desperate opponent with some talent. State has defensive weaknesses that WF can exploit, and State has no answer for John Collins. WF's guards and small forwards must defend the 3 point line. Austin Arians should feel comfortable with the Maverick Rowan matchup.
KP projects a 85-83 WF win. Feeling a little more confident after the Miami win, but given WF's epic struggles on the road, another heart-breaking road loss would not surprise.
NC State is 13-6 (2-4) and #76 in KP's ratings.
State has 2 top 100 wins (#50 VT by 26!!!) and Pitt (#62 by 5). State has lost to Creighton (#17 by 18), (#74 Illinois by 14), (#34 Miami by 18!!!), (#5 UNC by 51!!!), (#168 BC by 8), and (#103 GT by 10). Only the GT loss was at home. State played a weak OOC schedule (#279). Their best OOC win was an OT win over #138 Tennessee State.
State plays at a fast tempo (#55), and in ACC games, State has the shortest average duration on defensive possessions in the ACC -- 15.1 seconds (meaning the Pack are susceptible to the transition baskets - essentially the opposite of UVA).
State is #47 on offense. The Pack is not rated particularly high in any offensive category (other than not having its shots blocked), but they do shoot reasonably well (#52 in effective FG% - 38% from 3 (#58); 52% from 2 (#64)). State is not overly reliant on the 3 point shot as only 26.8% of the Pack offense comes from 3s (#268). State is a mediocre FT shooting team (70.7% #140).
State has had problems on D. They are #169 on defense, and among their weaknesses is that the Pack do not force turnovers (TOs on 16.6% of possessions on D #301) and the Pack doesn't keep teams off the offensive glass (#191). In ACC games, State is 2nd to last in defending the 3 as they allow 43.4% shooting on 3s in ACC games; as stated above, the Pack defense often gives up the quick first look.
State has decent size: 6-3, 6-5, 6-7, 6-8, 7-0. The Pack is not deep (#239 in bench minutes). None of State's bigs shoot the 3.
Frosh PG Dennis Smith is State's best player and a lottery pick. He was dominant in the win over VT (Smith had a triple double 27-11-11), but has struggled at times in ACC games (averaging 4 TOs a game in conference play). State does have multiple players that can hit the 3 (Smith 37%; Henderson 39%, Dorn 48%, Rowan 42%). 7-0 Center Omar Yurseven hasn't been much of factor in ACC play, scoring more than 5 points once in 6 games shooting 46% from the field (he did pull down 16 boards in the last game against Pitt). One other State player of note, Beejay Anya is now listed at 320, but I'm guessing that is understated as he apparently spent the Summer on the competitive eating circuit. Maybe Biggie Smalls faked his death and moved to Raleigh. When BJ is in the game, push the ball and get a lay up, Anya will stop at the scorer's table for a doughnut break.
WF will get State's A game tomorrow. The Pack are coming off a fortuitous win (Pitt blew a late 7 point lead) to break a 3 game losing streak. After hosting WF, State will play at Duke and at L'ville. So, a loss tomorrow has State facing a 2-7 start to the conference season. History does not favor the Deacs as WF has not won at State since the 2005 nut punch game (12 games ago).
The State game will test WF's ability to build on a good win. With a week off, after a close loss to UNC, a rested WF team worked a solid Miami team by 17. Now, WF just has 2 days off before traveling to Raleigh, a place where WF has not won in more than a decade, to play a desperate opponent with some talent. State has defensive weaknesses that WF can exploit, and State has no answer for John Collins. WF's guards and small forwards must defend the 3 point line. Austin Arians should feel comfortable with the Maverick Rowan matchup.
KP projects a 85-83 WF win. Feeling a little more confident after the Miami win, but given WF's epic struggles on the road, another heart-breaking road loss would not surprise.
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