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Bracketology 2017

Wakeforest22890 said:
Nah, need to beat State, Pittsburgh, and one of: @Clemson, @VPI, @Duke, @ND, Louisville to have a chance. If we lose at home to State or Pitt we would need at least two of the latter group and maybe even three given a loss to State or Pitt would be pretty easily our worst loss of the year.
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This
 
There are no "must-win" ACC road games. If we can get 3 wins on the road in ACC play then we are in good shape, and we already have 2.

Need to hold serve against the teams we are projected to beat (State, Pitt), and then snag one more somewhere else.
 
Probably posted elsewhere, but since we're looking at it, these are the remaining win percentages for Wake:

ND 30%
State 83%
Clemson 39%
Duke 21%
Pitt 78%
Louisville 30%
VPI 47%
 
Projected to win 3.28 more games. If we win tomorrow night then we will be projected to get to 9-9.
 
My prediction is the VPI game turns out to be one of the biggest bubble games that's happened in recent memory not just for Wake but for anyone.
 
pitt is playing better, that one scares me
 
Pitt is better than their 1-9 conference record, but probably not much better. They "should" be somewhere around 3 conference wins.

As far as the battle for the bottom three spots in the ACC goes, Wednesday's Pitt @ BC game is pretty big. Wake fans should want Pitt to win that one and then hope we get into a big tie for seeding that lands us 10th.
 
Don't get your hopes up. We aren't going anywhere without a signature win, and neither Miami nor Charleston is going to cut it. Need 4 wins with a win over somebody with a pulse to have a shot. The committee is not going to give a shit about close losses when looking at bubble teams, even in the participation trophy era. ND, Duke, or Louisville are the teams that meet that criterion as of today.

ETA. Absent one of those 3 and assuming 3 wins, we'd need a couple wins in the ACCT.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Probably posted elsewhere, but since we're looking at it, these are the remaining win percentages for Wake:

ND 30%
State 83%
Clemson 39%
Duke 21%
Pitt 78%
Louisville 30%
VPI 47%
Click to expand...

Deacsfan27 said:
Projected to win 3.28 more games. If we win tomorrow night then we will be projected to get to 9-9.
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These two things don't mesh (unless you used different sources). I see two wins to get to 7-11, meaning we have to steal one just to get to 8-10. Steal two and we're in great shape.

I'm surprised the @Clemson percentage is lower than @VPI
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Probably posted elsewhere, but since we're looking at it, these are the remaining win percentages for Wake:

ND 30%
State 83%
Clemson 39%
Duke 21%
Pitt 78%
Louisville 30%
VPI 47%
Click to expand...
Louisville at 30% seems low. i think we ride into that game with some momentum and sneak out a big win at home.

.... Using the term momentum strictly to troll Numbers.
 
EatLeadCommie said:
Don't get your hopes up. We aren't going anywhere without a signature win, and neither Miami nor Charleston is going to cut it. Need 4 wins with a win over somebody with a pulse to have a shot. The committee is not going to give a shit about close losses when looking at bubble teams, even in the participation trophy era. ND, Duke, or Louisville are the teams that meet that criterion as of today.

ETA. Absent one of those 3 and assuming 3 wins, we'd need a couple wins in the ACCT.
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Love the optimism. All kidding aside, if you could find 36 at large teams with better resumes for sure, I would agree here. But the reality is, there is a whole bunch of parity in the country and a whole bunch of mediocre teams.
 
I think we are a in a good place to start playing incrementally better and more consistently.

We did not play particularly well against GTech after gettting them into foul trouble, but what I like:

* Collins has not gotten into foul trouble in several games and only committed a few silly fouls over the last several games
* We have not shot the 3 particularly well the the few games either - Woods and Arians and Wilbekin have had good streaks, so look out if we get back to our 3pt%s of most of the season
* Dinos looks comfortable on the block which is putting pressure on defenses to cover 2 low post players at times
* Different guys are stepping up - Arians and Woods can both go for 15+ points
* Wilbekin is playing with the most confidence of his career
* Chill is really making us a deep team by playing quality minutes and shooting a better % than at the beginning of the season
* Crawford has not been flashy of late, but he is playing within himself and better defensively as well

I think we are set up to finish strongly. I have the State game penciled as a potential upset loss, but I think we can beat Duke, ND, Clemson, VTech on the road. I don't expect to win all those, but if we beat ND tomorrow night, lookout. Our schedule has set us up to be there at the end of games on the road and our shooting free throws should win us a game or two on the road.

It's college, so I could see us beating ND, Duke, Pitt, Vtech, and Clemson and lose to Louisville and State
 
EatLeadCommie said:
Don't get your hopes up. We aren't going anywhere without a signature win, and neither Miami nor Charleston is going to cut it. Need 4 wins with a win over somebody with a pulse to have a shot. The committee is not going to give a shit about close losses when looking at bubble teams, even in the participation trophy era. ND, Duke, or Louisville are the teams that meet that criterion as of today.

ETA. Absent one of those 3 and assuming 3 wins, we'd need a couple wins in the ACCT.
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In your edited scenario you think Wake has to be 19-14 to make the tournament. If that's the case, wake would be top 30 RPI, top 30 KP, and have 10 total wins in the ACC. Has any major conference team ever been left out in the 64+ team era with a top 30 RPI? I'm guessing no.
 
No. No top 39 team has been left out, for that matter.

And no top 48 team in the 68 team era. A 8-10 ACC finish currently projects Wake at #38 on the RPI forecast site RChill had referred to previously
 
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