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Bracketology 2017

Sort of meaningless discussion because if we get to 17-13 and 8-10 in the ACC, it is very unlkely we won't have at least one RPI top 50 win.

It's certainly possible for Clemson and/or VPI to drop out of the top 50. They're both in the mid-40s currently.
 
What is the likelihood that Charleston or Miami would move up into the top 50?
 
They're certainly closer to being in the top 50 than Clemson and VT are close to falling out at the moment.

And the committee will realize if they're close. Part of what '14-15 UGa had going for them is 9 RPI Top 51-100 wins. Wake may be in a similar situation
 
These numbers are through Sunday's games from RPIForecast (team pages are updated through Sunday's games but the main page is through February 2nd, I used the most recent page update):

Miami - Currently 55th at 15-7 overall. If they finish 19-11 in the regular season, their projected RPI would be 47th; if they finish 18-12 in the regular season their projected RPI would be 58th. KenPom has them finishing 18-12 but they're projected to win 3.41 of their remaining games (so win one game they're not supposed to and hold serve and they're top 50).

Charleston - Currently 51st at 19-6. If they finish 24-6 (so go undefeated the rest of the year), their projected RPI would be 44th; if they finish 23-7 (lose one the rest of the way) their projected RPI would be 53rd. KenPom has them finishing 23-8 but projected to win 4.17. I'd bet they don't finish top 50 after the regular season at least.

Virginia Tech - Currently 44th at 16-6. If they finish 21-9 their projected RPI would be 39th; if they finish 20-10 their projected RPI would be 50th. KenPom has them finishing 19-11. I think it's likely they drop out of the top 50. I also think it's possible they drop out of the tournament all together - they have a tough end to the season.

Clemson - Currently 46th at 13-9. If they finish 18-12 their projected RPI would be 45th; if they finish 17-13 their projected RPI would be 56th. KenPom has them finishing 17-13 but like Miami, they're just shy of halfway between 4 and 5 projected wins so if they hold serve and win a toss up they'd get to 18.

Caveat with Clemson and VPI is a loss to Wake would be pretty damaging to their chances of finishing in the top 50 of the RPI since they're both currently favored (at home) over the Deacs.

Finally, since we're the Wake boards:

Wake - Currently 32nd at 14-9. If we finish 17-13 our projected RPI would be 39th; if we finish 16-14 our projected RPI would be 48th. KenPom has us finishing at 17-13. Somewhat similar to Clemson and Miami we're projected to finish with 3.3 wins and would be slated to hit 18 wins if we get to 3.5 (so need one extra win somewhere along the road). For fun, if we finish 18-12 our projected RPI would be 32nd which is why I think we're almost certainly dancing with four more wins.
 
Really all four of the teams discussed above, exempting Wake, are very similar. The top 50 cut off is pretty arbitrary but also important seemingly during discussion inside the war room. Kind of a shame.
 
What is the likelihood that Charleston or Miami would move up into the top 50?

They're certainly closer to being in the top 50 than Clemson and VT are close to falling out at the moment.

And the committee will realize if they're close. Part of what '14-15 UGa had going for them is 9 RPI Top 51-100 wins. Wake may be in a similar situation

Good points. I keep forgetting about CoC.
 
really a shame that even though we've won a few games here and there we're likely to finish in the top 50 and with no quality wins they'll take a number 70 Syracuse over us because they have some quality wins. We play everybody close but just can't get any quality wins. Kind of a shame. Crazy that Clemson goes ahead of us when we really should have beat those guys in our house.
 
Syracuse with the buzzer-beater against Clemson tonight so now they have 4 top 50 wins. With our luck they'll take Syracuse over us based on their strong finish, tradition, etc.
 
You always and only look for negatives. pathetic.

I hate to hear that type of response but understand it's based on years of frustration. You gotta believe we can turn this thing around! Keep your head up!
 
Last night's game doesn't necessarily hurt us - we were underdogs after all - but we continue to not-help ourselves. Another missed opportunity for a solid win as we still can't beat a team better than us (and still haven't lost to a team worse than us).
 
Yesterday's bubble action -

Syracuse - Syracuse wins at the buzzer in Littlejohn. This almost certainly closes the door on Clemson's season and continues to bolster Syracuse's tournament bid. They've won five straight and have Pittsburgh on the road next.

Illinois State - ISU took care of business, as expected. They likely need to win out and make the MVC finals against Wichita State for an auto-bid. Any other loss in-conference would be a bad loss.

Dayton - The Flyers eked out a win at home against a bad Saint Joseph's team. They're solidly in the tournament at this point, but can't drop games like yesterday's and feel overly comfortable.

Arkansas - Razorbacks lost at home to Vanderbilt. This certainly helps Wake as they are also projected to be right at the bubble line. While this isn't a "bad loss", Arkansas certainly should have won, and it was never really a close game.

Iowa State - Thanks Shaka. Wake gets more help with the Cyclones losing at Texas. Iowa State has a much better resume than Wake, and they are currently projected as a 7-to-9 seed, but this is a sub-100 loss for Iowa State (Texas RPI is currently 128).

Texas Tech at TCU - Both are bubble teams, though TCU is projected in the field and Texas Tech is projected out. The TCU win solidifies that. We stack up favorably with Texas Tech.

Michigan State at Michigan - The Wolverines smoked the Spartans. Even though this is a nice win for Michigan, who is also on the bubble, one could argue that this was a good result for Wake if it brings Michigan State down a notch.

Marquette vs. #22 Butler - Marquette failed to get a nice win at home against a ranked Butler squad. Marquette was favored by 1.5, so I'm sure they're a disappointed they didn't pull this one off. They're on the right side of the bubble.

Georgia Tech (13-10, RPI 75, KP 78) vs. Tusculum - Georgia Tech beats Tusculum by 38 in a thrilling victory.

Teams on the outside that needed a lot of help -

Georgia vs. #17 Florida - Bulldogs were unable to beat Florida despite keeping it close most of the way. They're out and not a threat.

Georgetown at #2 Villanova - Nova got out to a quick lead and was able to maintain it in the second half. Georgetown also isn't much of a threat.

Illinois at Northwestern - Illinois picked up a nice win at Welsh-Ryan arena (curse of 2004). They still have a lot to do, but this is a nice start as they try to get back in contention.

Alabama at #19 South Carolina - Bama wins a 4OT thriller. A very good win for their resume. Like Illinois, they have a lot of work remaining and this may be too little, too late.

Memphis vs. Tulsa - Memphis wins big. To truly get back in the conversation they need to win at either Cincinnati (2/23) or at SMU (3/4), while taking care of the rest of the cupcakes on their schedule.

Auburn vs. Mississippi State - Auburn wins a shootout. On the outside looking in, but if they pull off an upset against Florida on Valentine's Day they could be back in the conversation.
 
Saturday is a must-win. Lose at home against NCSU and we can kiss our dreams of finding our way into the NCAAT goodbye.
 
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