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Bracketology 2017

The U up to 50th in RPI after their win tonight. Top 50 win in hand

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But yeah, that VT game will be big, as numbers has prev indicated. Much like Miami and GT their non-conf schedule is shit, which oft gets you left out of the tournament (South Carolina last year, SMU '14, Colorado '11, to name a few examples).

If we add a H2H road win over them, the edge should be ours
 
Finishing 17-13 (8-10) will likely put us as the #10 seed and that's better than the #9 seed.

As the 10, we would play day one vs the 15 seed which is a winnable game against Pitt or BC and the winner of that plays the 7 seed (ND as of now). Finishing as the 9 has us playing day 2 vs the 8 seed with the winner playing the 1.

So if we're looking for ACCT wins to boost our resume, let's hope for the 10 seed. 11 wouldn't be bad, but 10 would be our best bet.
 
Unfortunately for Wake, it looks like bubble teams played relatively well yesterday -

Minnesota (17-7, 5-6, RPI 25, KP 38) - beat Iowa by 12 in 2OT. They have two decent wins in a row after losing four consecutive games. Currently projected as a 7-10 seed.

VCU (19-5, 9-2, RPI 28, KP 49) - won on the road at GW by 1 on a last-second shot. They're a 9-seed and should be able to take care of business down the stretch to remain in.

Oklahoma State (15-9, 4-7, RPI 29, KP 21) - lost by 3 at home to Baylor. Missed a chance for their third top-25 win and is stuck around the 8/9-line.

Seton Hall (15-8, 5-6, RPI 36, KP 53) - Won in OT against Providence. They have two top-25 wins and no bad losses. They've started to match-up pretty favorably to Wake, unfortunately.

Tennessee (14-10, 6-5, RPI 37, KP 36) - beat Ole Miss by 9 at home. They're squarely on the bubble with Wake, so every win matters.

Virginia Tech (16-7, 5-6, RPI 38, KP 54) - lost at Miami by 6. They're typically seen as an 8/9-seed, and this loss doesn't hurt them much. They have a tough next three (vs. UVA, @ Pitt, @ Louisville) before a relatively easy final four (vs. Clemson, @ BC, vs. Miami, vs. Wake)

California (18-6, 9-3, RPI 39, 48) - beat a bad Arizona State team by 25 on the road. They've won five-straight, and overall their resume is relatively similar to Wake's. No great wins, no bad losses. They have a better record but a worse SOS than Wake, and have similar NCAAT pospects.

Miami (16-7, 6-5, RPI 56, KP 40) - beat fellow bubble-team Virginia Tech by 6 at home. Most projections have them as one of the first four in/out, so so a win here certainly helps.

Houston (17-7, 8-4, RPI 65, KP 39) - beat an awful Tulane team by 29 on the road. Currently off the bubble, but they've won four straight by a margin of 74. If they finish the year 5-1, meaning a win over either SMU or Cincinnati, they might get some consideration.

Ohio State (15-10, 5-7, RPI 71, KP 60) - beat Rutgers at home. Currently outside the tourney field (pretty far outside) but they've won two straight and have an outside shot at getting to 9-9 in the Big 10.
 
Thursday night bubble watch -

Southern California (20-4, 7-4, RPI 26, KP 58) vs. Oregon State - They're not on the bubble anymore and are solidly in the tournament. That said, if they were to lose tonight they'd be right back on the bubble (Oregon State is that bad).

Wichita State (21-4, 11-1, RPI 55, KP 17) vs. Missouri State - Their best win came on Saturday against Illinois State (RPI 32). They're in, but likely need to win out to feel completely comfortable.

Indiana (15-9, 5-6, RPI 75, KP 41) vs. #16 Purdue - Hoosiers have lost 3 of 4 and currently sit as one of the last teams in the field. A win here would be nice for the Hoosiers.

Utah (15-8, 6-5, RPI 80, KP 46) vs. Washington State - They've lost two straight (and 3 of 4) and are outside looking in. Can get back on track with Washington State and Washington in the next two. They have a very easy schedule down the stretch and it's very feasible they reach 20 wins (11 in the Pac-12). That might not be enough to get them in, but they'd be on the bubble.

Low majors that aren't really on the bubble and likely need to win their conference tournament for any shot at a bid -

Middle Tennessee State (20-4, 10-1, RPI 41, KP 51) vs. Old Dominion - the loss @ UTEP on Saturday absolutely kills them. MTSU now has three sub-100 losses. Best wins are Vanderbilt, UNC-W, and Belmont. Can't ee them getting an at-large bid anymore.

UNC Wilmington (21-4, 10-2, RPI 42, KP 55) vs. James Madison - They'll likely need to win out in the regular season to have any real conversation for an at-large bid. A loss would knock them entirely out of consideration.

Charleston (19-6, 10-2, RPI 51, KP 85) vs. Northeastern - See: UNC Wilmington. CoC won the head-to-head match-up, but has the worse overall resume.

New Mexico State (22-2, 8-0, RPI 52, KP 82) at CSU Bakersfield - Haven't lost since November 18th. This is the hardest game remaining on their slate. If they win, they have a realistic shot at finishing the WAC undefeated. They have one of the worst SOS in the country, and should be on the outside unless they win the WAC tournament.

Vermont (21-5, 11-0, RPI 61, KP 64) vs. New Hampshire - Vermont hasn't lost since December 21. I don't see a way that the American East gets two bids, so they'll need to win their conference tourney to get in.
 
Finishing 17-13 (8-10) will likely put us as the #10 seed and that's better than the #9 seed.

As the 10, we would play day one vs the 15 seed which is a winnable game against Pitt or BC and the winner of that plays the 7 seed (ND as of now). Finishing as the 9 has us playing day 2 vs the 8 seed with the winner playing the 1.

So if we're looking for ACCT wins to boost our resume, let's hope for the 10 seed. 11 wouldn't be bad, but 10 would be our best bet.

I've been hearing this a lot and I don't buy it.

Beating BC and then losing to the 7 seed is worse for our RPI than losing to the 8 seed. The committee isn't going to give a shot about an extra win against a team outside the top 100.

Plus we will almost certainly be favored in the 8/9 game.
 
I've been hearing this a lot and I don't buy it.

Beating BC and then losing to the 7 seed is worse for our RPI than losing to the 8 seed. The committee isn't going to give a shot about an extra win against a team outside the top 100.

Plus we will almost certainly be favored in the 8/9 game.

Agreed, we are at the point where we need quality wins. Beating BC and then losing to the 7-seed only reinforces our maddeningly consistent resume. Beating the 8/9 seed would mean taking down another bubble team.
 
The higher we can finish in the ACC standings, the better. I mean, if 10 teams from the ACC are getting into the NCAAs, I wouldn't feel very good about the optics of being the #11 seed in the ACC tourney (or even the 10 seed, for that matter).
 
I'm talking about multiple ACCT wins. You think it's an easier path to win 2 games vs the 8/9 seed then the 1 instead of the 15 then 7?
 
I'm talking about multiple ACCT wins. You think it's an easier path to win 2 games vs the 8/9 seed then the 1 instead of the 15 then 7?

If you want to make this comparison, you have to compare bye,8,1 to 15,7,2

Playing 1 vs 2 this year isn't that different. Hard to even say who that will be.


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Winning the ACC tourney would probably be easier without having to play that extra play-in game.

:couch:
 
Or maybe not. Charleston loses to Northeastern at home at the buzzer

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How they lost. What is this bullshit

 
The good news: IU may be playing themselves out the tournament.

Big Ten is so shit this year. They better get six teams at most in!
 
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