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Bracketology 2017

They are announcing the top 16 teams in the tournament today. Don't know how I feel about that.
 
They are announcing the top 16 teams in the tournament today. Don't know how I feel about that.

It's going to be like the BCS rankings used to be and subject to change, just another LOOK AT ME attention grabbing from ESPN.

That said, I don't like it either, just going to create more anarchy when certain teams win or lose and the rankings don't reflect that "properly".
 
Thanks to the Flyers for winning last night. Definitely hurts Rhode Island's chances heading into mid-February as they lack quality wins. They'll need to finish strong, including a win against VCU on 2/25 and a strong A-10 tournament showing, to remain relevant.
 
Full slate of bubble games on Saturday. Obviously the most important is Wake's game. Lose today and we are out of contention.

Other bubble games of note

Minnesota (17-7, 5-6, RPI 23, KP 39) at Rutgers - Minnesota should pick up a road win here, they're favored by 5.5, which would make three straight wins after losing five consecutive to end January. They're currently projected in the field as a 7-9 seed and have nice road wins at Purdue and at Northwestern (ugh)

VCU (19-5, 9-2, RPI 26, KP 48) vs. Davidson - The Rams have won five straight, and should stretch that to nine when they have two consecutive road tests against Rhode Island and Dayton. They're an 8/9-seed and should find themselves dancing.

Southern California (21-4, 8-4, RPI 29, KP 55) vs. #5 Oregon - USC has won five straight, but now have three tough match-ups against Oregon, @ UCLA, and @ Arizona in a row. They are solidly in the field right now, but if they lose all three they may find themselves back on the bubble.

Oklahoma State (15-9, 4-7, RPI 30, KP 21) vs. Texas - The Cowboys are solidly in the field as an 8/9-seed, and should easily win today. They have a pretty easy slate to end the year, and should find themselves dancing.

Illinois State (20-5, 12-1, RPI 32, KP 44) vs Bradley - The Redbirds have a good win against Wichita State earlier this year, but also have three bad losses. They need to win out for a chance at an at-large birth.

TCU (17-7, 6-5, RPI 34, KP 33) at #6 Baylor - TCU is on the right side of the bubble as an 8-10 seed. They have nice wins against Iowa State, at Kansas State, against Texas Tech, and against Illinois State, but no real marquee wins. They do, undeniably, have a stronger resume than Wake and a win today may lock up a bid, barring a late-season collapse.

Cal (18-6, 9-3, RPI 35, KP 47) at #9 Arizona - Cal is in the field as an 8-10 seed, and will be close to double-digit dogs tonight. A loss won't hurt them and they should be a tournament team.

Seton Hall (15-8, 5-6, RPI 36, KP 53) at St. John's - They've won two straight overtime games, and head to Madison Square Garden in a toss up game. I don't truly understand the love they are getting from bracketologists, who currently have them as a 9-11 seed. They have a sub-0.500 record against top-200 RPI teams, but do have nice wins against Cal and South Carolina on a neutral floor, and against Marquette at home.

Middle Tennessee (21-4, 11-1, RPI 37, KP 50) vs. Charlotte - A loss at UTEP last weekend ruined their chances. Despite a strong RPI they are far on the outside and don't have any other opportunities for solid wins the rest of the way out.

Tennessee (14-10, 6-6, RPI 38, KP 37) - The Volunteers have won five of six, but still have a pretty weak resume overall. Today is a must-win.

UNC Wilmington (22-4, 11-2, RPI 42, KP 56) - Strong record but no quality wins. They need to win out for a chance at an at-large bid.

Kansas State (16-6, 5-6, RPI 44, KP 28) at #13 West Virginia - KSU narrowly missed a big win against Kansas on Monday, but was able to take down Baylor on the road last weekend. They're currently on the right side of the bubble - projected 9-11 seed - and an upset win here would put them solidly in the field.

Iowa State (14-9, 6-5, RPI 48, KP 76) vs. Oklahoma - The Cyclones are on the right side of the bubble as a 7-10 seed, but have lost three of four and are 8-9 against teams above 200 in KP. They should win today, and they need to in order to continue feeling comfortable.

Arkansas (17-7, 6-5, RPI 49, KP 59) at LSU - Razorbacks are considered one of the first four in/out. LSU is garbage, and while the Razorbacks are only 5-point favorites a loss today would really hurt.

Michigan State (14-10, 6-5, RPI 50, KP 58) vs. Iowa - The Spartans wish they could take back loss at home against Northeastern, and a semi-road game against Penn State. They're generally seen as a 10-seed, but have to end strong for a chance at the tourney.

Miami (16-7, 6-5, RPI 51, KP 40) at #4 Louisville - The Hurricanes are generally considered in the field, around a 9 or 10-seed, but still have some work to do to feel comfortable. They have a brutal final seven games, including @ Louisville, @ UVA, vs. Duke, and @ FSU. They may need to steal one of those to feel safe.

Clemson (13-10, 3-8, RPI 53, KP 43) at #18 Duke - three of the Tigers' ACC losses have come at a combined 5 points. They're big dogs today, but are running out of games to get some much-needed wins. After today, they essentially have four toss-up games in a row which will determine their post-season fate (vs. Wake, @ Miami, @ VaTech, vs. Florida State)

Illinois (14-11, 4-8, RPI 54, KP 67) vs. Penn State - They're off the bubble, but just picked up a nice road win at Northwestern (ugh). If they win their next two - vs. Penn State and @ Iowa - they'll face the Wildcats again in a game that could get them back in consideration.

Auburn (16-8, 5-6, RPI 56, KP 75) at Ole Miss (14-10, 5-6, RPI 70, KP 73) - Both teams are on the outside, so whoever wins will get a little boost. Neither has a great resume and both should be on the outside the rest of the way out.

Syracuse (16-9, 8-4, RPI 63, KP 46) at Pittsburgh - The Orange have won five straight and put themselves back on the right side of the bubble. They need to get to 11 ACC wins to feel safe on Selection Sunday.

Ohio State (15-10, 5-7, RPI 66, KP 60) at #21 Maryland - Ohio State made themselves relevant again over the past week, with a nice win at Michigan last Saturday and taking care of Rutgers mid-week. A win today would get them back in the conversation for the bubble.

Alabama (14-9, 7-4, RPI 67, KP 61) vs. #15 Kentucky - Alabama is no longer on the bubble, but picked up a nice mid-week win at South Carolina in four overtimes. A win today against Kentucky would get them back in the conversation.

Houston (17-7, 8-4, RPI 68, KP 38) at Tulsa - They have two sub-100 KP losses out of conference @ LSU and vs. Harvard. Their best win is against fellow bubble-team Rhode Island, so they don't have a big margin for error. They're three-point favorites, and they may not be able to recover from a loss today.

Marquette (15-9, 6-6, RPI 75, KP 35) at Georgetown - After beating Creighton and Villanova in consecutive games, Marquette has lost three of four - with their only win coming against bottom-feeder DePaul. The Hoyas were a borderline bubble-team until recently. Would be a nice road win for Marquette if they can pull it off (2.5 point underdogs)

Providence (14-11, 4-8, RPI 76, KP 62) vs. #22 Butler - They're off the bubble by a decent margin, but a win today, followed by a Wednesday win against Xavier, would get them back in the conversation. A loss today will likely end their season.

Georgia Tech (14-10, 5-6, RPI 77, KP 81) vs. Boston College - The Yellow Jackets have some quality wins (vs. UNC, vs. FSU, vs. Notre Dame, @ VCU), but their mediocre record is inflated by beating six sub-200 KP teams. They're on the bubble, but I don't see them getting in come Selection Sunday.

Utah (16-8, 7-5, RPI 79, KP 49) vs. Washington - The Utes are on the outside looking in. They're double-digit favorites today and need to win to stay alive.

Texas Tech (16-8, 4-7, RPI 89, KP 41) vs. #3 Kansas - TTU owes their brutal RPI to one of the worst non-conference schedules in the nation. They have wins against fellow bubble teams Kansas State and TCU, but played only one team in the KP top-100 during their non-conference slate (a loss on neutral floor to Auburn). A win here would be big.
 
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Pitt loss hurts Cuse a lot. They still have to play Louisville (x2) GT (x2) and Duke.... that could easily be 4 losses.

Georgia Tech is an interesting case. They have a lot of winnable games left on the schedule, the 2 toughest being @Miami and @ND. No Duke, UNC, FSU, Virginia or Louisville. 10-8 doesn't seem like that much of a stretch if they steal 1 road game, since they have been good at home.
 
I was thoroughly unimpressed with seeing GT in person last weekend. I have no idea how they beat UNC, FSU, and Notre Dame.


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Pitt loss hurts Cuse a lot. They still have to play Louisville (x2) GT (x2) and Duke.... that could easily be 4 losses.

Georgia Tech is an interesting case. They have a lot of winnable games left on the schedule, the 2 toughest being @Miami and @ND. No Duke, UNC, FSU, Virginia or Louisville. 10-8 doesn't seem like that much of a stretch if they steal 1 road game, since they have been good at home.

GT benefits from getting the wins that Wake hasn't been able to pull off, that being said, they are 5-6, even with a softer schedule a 5-2 finish would be a shocker.

The conference is so congested in the middle. Wake has a legit shot at 6th or 7th. Since we've been playing on the 1st day I no longer know where the bye's are in the ACCT. Need FSU to take out ND today.
 
Today was a good day.

Big East results and TN losing the highlights (besides our performance of course)
 
Out of our remaining games, it's likely we'll only be favored vs. Pitt, right? With VT maybe being close to a toss-up, and Clemson, Duke, and Louisville being long shots (but probably about a win expected in there)?
 
Out of our remaining games, it's likely we'll only be favored vs. Pitt, right? With VT maybe being close to a toss-up, and Clemson, Duke, and Louisville being long shots (but probably about a win expected in there)?
Don't be such a pussy
 
Wellman has re-instituted the ban on dancing at Wake. Can we finally get it lifted again?

This is good. This is the first time I've seen this joke. How could that be?
 
A great Saturday for the Deacs. Very strong performance against NC State, and enough losses from ACC & bubble teams to improve our standing.

Saturday Winners

Minnesota (18-7, 6-6, RPI 22, KP 37) at Rutgers - Golden Gophers won by 9 on the road. They're currently projected in the field as a 7-9 seed, and it's feasible they end up with ten Big 10 wins. They should be in.

VCU (20-5, 10-2, RPI 27, KP 44) vs. Davidson - The Rams have now won six straight, taking down Davidson by 14. They're currently dancing, but would like to split road contests against Rhode Island and Dayton in two weeks to truly feel comfortable.

Oklahoma State (16-9, 5-7, RPI 28, KP 21) vs. Texas - The Cowboys won by 13 against a pretty bad Texas team. They're an 8/9-seed and have won six of their last seven. They have a pretty easy slate to end the year, and should find themselves dancing.

Illinois State (21-5, 13-1, RPI 35, KP 46) vs Bradley - ISU's RPI actually dropped three slots after beating Bradley by 14. Advanced metrics must not like that Anthony Fields transferred away from Bradley to Liberty. With four cupcakes to end the year, the Redbirds don't have any room for error.

Middle Tennessee (22-4, 12-1, RPI 36, KP 52) vs. Charlotte - MTSU took care of Charlotte on Saturday, winning by 15. Despite a strong RPI they are far on the outside and don't have any other opportunities for solid wins the rest of the way out.

Michigan State (15-10, 7-5, RPI 41, KP 53) vs. Iowa - Like Arkansas, the Spartans were also down in the second half before coming back to win. The win against Iowa was expected, and while they're on the right side of the bubble will need to steal a win down the stretch to feel comfortable.

Arkansas (18-7, 7-5, RPI 44, KP 58) at LSU - Arkansas was actually trailing in the second half of this one, but rallied to beat LSU by eight. A loss would have really hurt and been great for Wake. They have a tough mid-week contest at South Carolina.

Iowa State (15-9, 7-5, RPI 52, KP 26) vs. Oklahoma - The Cyclones took the Sooners down by 16. They are a 7-10 seed right now and are relatively comfortable despite a tough slate to end the year.

Houston (18-7, 9-4, RPI 56, KP 36) at Tulsa - The nine-point road win actually improved Houston's RPI by 12 slots. They have a week off to prepare for SMU at home next Saturday. That could be the statement win they need.

Ole Miss (15-10, 6-6, RPI 58, KP 68) vs. Auburn - A good result for Wake, as both were bubble teams but Auburn had the better resume. Very unlikely that Ole Miss will be dancing.

Providence (15-11, 5-8, RPI 70, KP 59) vs. #22 Butler - One of the better wins of the day for a bubble team. They're off the bubble, but can get back in the conversation on Wednesday if they take down Xavier.

Georgia Tech (15-10, 6-6, RPI 76, KP 80) vs. Boston College - Georgia Tech didn't look very impressive yesterday, scoring only 15 first-half points. They're on the bubble due to some nice wins, but I don't see them getting in come Selection Sunday.

Utah (17-8, 8-5, RPI 80, KP 48) vs. Washington - Despite a 24-point win, the Utes' RPI actually went down a slot. They're on the outside looking in.


Saturday Losers

Southern California (21-5, 8-5, RPI 32, KP 57) vs. #5 Oregon - USC pulled within three with 2:40 left, but found themselves down most of the day and ended up losing by 11. Wake has surpassed them in RPI and has a much stronger SOS. USC has two top-15 wins, but their next two are @ UCLA and @ Arizona. They'll feel more comfortable if they split those two.

Cal (18-7, 9-4, RPI 33, KP 47) at #9 Arizona - Cal was barking at Arizona's door all game, but couldn't push themselves over the edge. The loss doesn't hurt them and they're still in the 8-10 seed conversation. A win would have solidified their position in the field.

TCU (17-8, 6-6, RPI 34, KP 38) at #6 Baylor - This game was never in question. Baylor got up big early, and sustained the lead all game. They're on the right side of the bubble and currently have a stronger resume than Wake, but it looks like they'll be underdogs in each of their next four games and then have two toss-up games to end the year. They're in control of their own destiny and can play themselves in or play themselves out.

Tennessee (14-11, 6-7, RPI 42, KP 41) vs. Georgia - Another good result for Wake. This was a game they should have won, and they might need to end the year 5-1 to have any chance of an at-large bid. Given they're projected to go 3-3, the tournament hopes are almost over.

Kansas State (16-7, 5-7, RPI 43, KP 28) at #13 West Virginia - KSU wasn't expected to win yesterday, but they got absolutely smoked by WVA. They have a relatively easy slate to end the year, but have lost five of their last six. They need to right the ship on Wednesday at home against Iowa State.

Seton Hall (15-9, 5-7, RPI 46, KP 55) at St. John's - A great result for Wake, losing by 8 at St. John's should move Seton Hall out of the field. Their RPI dropped then slots with the loss. They'll need to finish 3-3 for a chance of an at-large bid.

UNC Wilmington (22-5, 11-3, RPI 47, KP 56) at Elon - UNC-W lost by 1 on the road. A big loss for the Seahawks, and it's safe to say they're no longer on the bubble.

Miami (16-8, 6-6, RPI 51, KP 35) at #4 Louisville - The Hurricanes almost upset Louisville on the road, which would have put them solidly in the field. They'll be favored in their next two before being underdogs in their final four. 3-3 will get them in the field.

Clemson (13-11, 3-9, RPI 54, KP 39) at #18 Duke - The Tigers almost took down Duke in Cameron. Great news for the Deacs, and hopefully being 3-9 and coming off an emotional loss will help our chances on Tuesday.

Ohio State (15-11, 5-8, RPI 57, KP 61) at #21 Maryland - While they weren't expected to win, a Buckeye victory would have really bolstered their at-large chances. Wake has a better resume, and Ohio State is on their last legs.

Illinois (14-12, 4-9, RPI 65, KP 77) vs. Penn State - A bad loss against Penn State, and now certainly no longer in the conversation. One less team to worry about.

Alabama (14-10, 7-5, RPI 66, KP 62) vs. #15 Kentucky - Similar to Ohio State, this loss hurts in that the Tide missed an opportunity for a good win. They're out of the field and not a contender.

Auburn (16-9, 5-7, RPI 67, KP 75) at Ole Miss - A good result for Wake, as both were bubble teams but Auburn had the better resume. Their only chance for a marquee win is on Tuesday at Florida. If they don't win there, they won't be able to get a strong-enough resume to make it into the NCAAT.

Syracuse (16-10, 8-5, RPI 68, KP 49) at Pittsburgh - Great result for Wake, as the loss at Pitt brings Syracuse back down to earth. To feel safe, they'll need to win the home-and-away against Georgia Tech, and then steal one of - vs. Louisville, vs. Duke, and @ Louisville.

Marquette (15-10, 6-7, RPI 82, KP 43) at Georgetown - The Hoyas were in control all game, and ending up winning by 18. This loss hurts Marquette, and they're likely on the outside right now. Good result for Wake.

Texas Tech (16-9, 4-8, RPI 94, KP 40) vs. #3 Kansas - Texas Tech only lost by one against Kansas. The win would have been a big boost, so the loss certainly helps Wake. With an RPI nearly at 100, they're out of consideration for now. They face Baylor and West Virginia in their next two, and if they steal a victory they may be brought up again.
 
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Lunardi has us as the 2nd team out.

Prior to yesterday's games. Six of the nine teams ahead of us lost yesterday (Clemson, Tennessee, Seton Hall, Cal, Marquette, and Syracuse). Two play today (Virginia Tech, Indiana). Wouldn't be surprised to see his next projection to have us in the field.
 
thanks for these updates waldo. it's a lot of work. hope wake can reward you at the end.
 
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