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Bracketology 2017

FYI - USA Today's projection from this morning has Wake as the second team out.


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RChildress107 said:
Right but when you take into account quality of opponents and margin of victory Duke is a top 15 team.

If you are evaluating our team based on quality of opponent and margin of victory then it doesn't make sense to ignore quality of opponents and margin of victory when evaluating the quality of our opponent.
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Sure it does. What use is quality of opponent and margin of victory 2 months ago when that team is playing poorly now with a significantly different roster and without their HOF coach? They aren't the same team, both literally and figuratively.
 
At the moment I'd just be happy if we take care of GT.
 
wsc8521s said:
As long as you're including the ACCT, no one's really suggesting otherwise.

Only scenario I could see at 17-14 would be if we're in the 8-9 game and we lose to a non-bubble team, like a Duke or maybe Clemson/VT if they've secured their spot by then
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One of those 17 would have to be Louisville or @Duke which would leave us with a projected RPI of 40 or 42 respectively.
 
taking care of GT is huge. we win and helps us and hurts GT's bubble case. the opposite and it's goodnight ncaa tourney barring some really unexpected events.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
Sure it does. What use is quality of opponent and margin of victory 2 months ago when that team is playing poorly now with a significantly different roster and without their HOF coach? They aren't the same team, both literally and figuratively.
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I'm pretty sure KP weights towards recency and Duke's rating has been consistently in the teens since early on in ACC play I believe.
 
RChildress107 said:
I'm pretty sure KP weights towards recency and Duke's rating has been consistently in the teens since early on in ACC play I believe.
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So there is no material effect of Coach K coaching a young team versus Jeff Capel? Okay. That alone should be enough evidence to ignore KenPom in its entirety.
 
2&2 Slider To Leyritz said:
So there is no material effect of Coach K coaching a young team versus Jeff Capel? Okay. That alone should be enough evidence to ignore KenPom in its entirety.
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Lot of hate for a prediction service that is 22-0 picking WF games this year.
 
Duke dropped a few spots during Capel's tenure. That's about right I think. I don't think the difference with K on/off the bench for a few games is a massive deal at all.
 
I'm glad a thread on the bubble watch has turned into 90% a kenpom argument that has been debated for years. This is why we can't have nice things.
 
WFUWaldo said:
I'm glad a thread on the bubble watch has turned into 90% a kenpom argument that has been debated for years. This is why we can't have nice things.
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If we were winning more basketball games I'd think it likely this 'statistical emphasis' wouldn't get as much traction otherwise.
 
mercurydime said:
If we were winning more basketball games I'd think it likely this 'statistical emphasis' wouldn't get as much traction otherwise.
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Good point better start discussing Danny Manning's #credibility.
 
RChildress107 said:
One of those 17 would have to be Louisville or @Duke which would leave us with a projected RPI of 40 or 42 respectively.
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Could easily be enough. Actually 49 is the highest RPI not to make it from a big conference since the field expanded to 68.

Non-conference SOS seems to year in, year out be the reason why some teams make it and others don't, and we have a huge edge on many of the teams we're competing against there (Miami and GT to name a few from our own conference)
 
wsc8521s said:
Could easily be enough. Actually 49 is the highest RPI not to make it from a big conference since the field expanded to 68.

Non-conference SOS seems to year in, year out be the reason why some teams make it and others don't, and we have a huge edge on many of the teams we're competing against there (Miami and GT to name a few from our own conference)
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It's weird to me that we could make it in with 17 wins. I remember there was some question if we would make it in 2010 with 19 wins against a similarly difficult schedule. So I went back to see if there were any non-auto-bids with 17 wins.There has been one in the past ten years. Alabama in 2005-2006. They were ranked 60th by Kenpom and played the 11th hardest schedule. They did beat three ranked teams in the last month of the season, so maybe that was the rational.

Several teams have made it with 18 though:
2005-2006:
-Indiana 34th in KP, 16th SOS, 6 seed (finished 4-0, Indiana brand)
-Seton Hall 87th, 41st, 10 (4 wins against ranked teams)

2006-2007:
-Stanford 66th, 21st, 11 (10-8 in conference)

2007-2008:
-Oregon 36th, 7th, 9
-Kentucky 79th, 54th, 11 (Kentucky brand, clearly should not have made it)

2014-2015:
-Oklahoma State 38th, 15th, 9

So, in summary, we should be feeling very nervous on selection Sunday even with 18 wins but especially with 17 wins.
 
Results from Thursday

Michigan State (13-9, 5-4, KP 53) at Nebraska - Michigan State by 11. They're currently projected as an 8/9 seed

Memphis (16-6, 6-3, KP 73) at South Florida. Memphis by 10. They have a lot of work to do in order to get in the bubble conversation.

UNC Wilmington (20-3, 9-1, KP 55) vs. Charleston - Charleston by 1. Charleston is a decent team, but UNC-W has now lost two straight and they don't have any margin for error if they would hope to get an at-large bid if they don't win the Colonial tournament.

Mid Tennessee State (19-3, 9-0, KP 46) at UT San Antonio. MTSU by 10. They've won 10 straight and have an argument to be a 10/11 seed.

Utah (15-6, 6-3, KP 40) at California (15-6, 6-3, KP 58). Cal wins in double OT. Both Cal and Utah are straddling the bubble like Wake. Good win for Cal, and Utah missed an opportunity for a solid road win.
 
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