Kentucky Derby - Saturday

This is first look for the board at this year's KY Derby. Since last fall, this crop has looked mediocre at best. A couple of then horses have had their moments. They have taken turns winning the big prep races. Sometimes because of horses having good days. Another reason was there were lots of small fields in the major props. Several of them only has seven horses running. Not having 10-12 can come back to haunt horses who haven't seen much traffic coming into a twenty horse Derby.

Before looking at some horses, I have to state that I have a Future Book bet on Irish War Cry at 21.5/1.

These are the odds I'm looking at early:

Classic Empire - 5/1 - The two-year old champion lost one race due to a small abscess in his foot. He came back to win easily in Arkansas, he has refused to train a few times. He should be on the board.

Always Dreaming 6-1 - Todd Pletcher trainee won by daylight in the FL Derby (his first stakes race). The time was slow, but he won easily against a mediocre field. He has a very high dosage figure. Some people don't consider this any more, but when only about 4-5 horses in the last 100 years didn't have a good Dosage, I still pay attention.

McCracken 7-1 - He was the hot horse coming into the Bluegrass and stunk out the joint. He had a perfect trip and lost to a maiden. He will get played a lot. Some will say, "it was a nice come back race after 60 days off." Maybe, underneath on exactas, trifectas and supers.

Irish War Cry 7-1 - He threw a real stinker in the Fountain of Youth. Then, ran like a champ in the Wood. If he gets a clear run, I think he's the winner. I'm putting the odds at what I think he'll go off at before the post positions are drawn.

Girvin 10-1 - All he does is win. His problem is he hasn't run against the best. I won't be tremendously surprised if he wins, but he still has to prove he belongs.

Gormley 10-1- His only bad race was against Mastery (who would have been the big favorite in the KY Derby if not injured). He'll run an honest race. If it's good enough, he'll be there. Another horse for exotics.

Thunder Snow 15-1 - The won the UAE Derby. Almost every year, some say the winner of that race will win the Derby. This is a mediocre field. So? Not really, the older horses who go for the $10M race in Dubai rest until June or July before competing again. Many don't recover for the whole year. Thew only advantage he has is the Thunder Snow only made the trip one way.

Tapwrit 15-1 - Totally freaked in the Tampa Bay Derby. Then didn't run a step in the Florida Derby. Maybe he freaks again. I'm not betting on it.

Gunnevera 15-1 - Seems to run well every other race. This is the every other race. But he really sucked in the Florida Derby.


This is a first blush. Lots of things can happen before the first Saturday in May.

McCracken didn't run well but Tapwrit look outclassed in the Bluegrass

The Bluegrass looked like a shitty group. Then again, other than Mastery, I'm not all that impressed with this class.

Unless something happens, Arrogate won't have to worry about the three year olds going into the Breeders Cup Classic. It's conceivable that if Arrogate goes to Dubai next March that could have $30M+ in earnings.

All longshots to win

Horse/Sire Watchmaker
Odds Last Race, Result,
and Beyer Next Likely Race,
Track, and Date Jay Privman and Mike Watchmaker Comments
- designates Keeneland sales graduate
Classic Empire 5-1 Arkansas Derby, 4/15 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Considering route to Ark. Derby was far from ideal, and had traffic in race, quite the feat to win.
by Pioneerof the Nile 1st by 1/2, 94 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: The field he beat was uninspiring, as was his Beyer, but that was his first real race in 5 months.
Owner: John Oxley; Trainer: Mark Casse; Jockey: Julien Leparoux

Always Dreaming 6-1 Florida Derby, 4/1 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Original Derby Watch top 20 member continues his ascent with impressive Florida Derby victory.
by Bodemeister 1st by 5, 97 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: The Florida Derby was by far the best race he's ever run, so perhaps he has come into his own.
Owner: Brooklyn Boyz Stables, Teresa Viola Racing Stables, et al; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: John Velazquez

Irish War Cry 8-1 Wood Memorial, 4/8 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Now the Fountain of Youth looks like an outlier for him. Holy Bull and Wood both solid victories.
by Curlin 1st by 3 1/2, 101 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: I liked his Wood more than his Holy Bull because he relaxed early, then pressed a strong pace.
Owner: Isabelle de Tomaso; Trainer: Graham Motion; Jockey: Rajiv Maragh

McCraken 10-1 Blue Grass, 4/8 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Only big name in Blue Grass I'm willing to give a mulligan. Needed it, trainer points for big target.
by Ghostzapper 3rd by 3 3/4, 88 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: If you were a fan before, you'll likely stay one. Truth is, though, he did very little real running.
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds; Trainer: Ian Wilkes; Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.

Gunnevera 12-1 Florida Derby, 4/1 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Ran on well in Fla. Derby in race dominated by early-speed types. Must avoid traffic in Ky. Derby.
by Dialed In 3rd by 6 1/2, 88 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: Was too late in Fla. Derby, but I also think he took a step back from Fountain of Youth, Holy Bull.
Owner: Peacock Racing Stables; Trainer: Antonio Sano; Jockey: Javier Castellano

Battalion Runner 15-1 Wood Memorial, 4/8 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Second-best in Wood while making his first start in more than two months. Has right to improve.
by Unbridled's Song 2nd by 3 1/2, 95 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: Set pace in Wood on a track that was decidedly speed favoring, but maybe he needed the race.
Owner: St. Elias Stable; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Undecided

Gormley 15-1 Santa Anita Derby, 4/8 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Got a sweet, stalking trip in SA Derby, proved best in closing yards in race whose fig came up soft.
by Malibu Moon 1st by 1/2, 88 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: Good news is for the first time, he won from off pace. Bad news is he had all day to get there.
Owner: Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss; Trainer: John Shirreffs; Jockey: Victor Espinoza

Practical Joke 15-1 Blue Grass, 4/8 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Both his races this year solid enough, but still don't believe he wants any part of 1 1/4 miles.
by Into Mischief 2nd 3/4, 92 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: That he had every chance to get by the maiden and couldn't confirmed his distance limitations.
Owner: Klaravich Stables & William Lawrence; Trainer: Chad Brown; Jockey: Joel Rosario

Battle of Midway 20-1 Santa Anita Derby, 4/8 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Did the dirty work in SA Derby, battled it out bravely. Fig was low, but his effort was courageous.
by Smart Strike 2nd by 1/2, 88 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: I don’t get why he was dueling for the early lead after settling nicely in a win two starts back.
Owner: WinStar Farm & Don Alberto Stable; Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer; Jockey: Flavien Prat

Girvin 20-1 Louisiana Derby, 4/1 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Recent adjustments to schedule, plus Z-bar shoes when training this week are discouraging signs.
by Tale of Ekati 1st by 1 1/4, 91 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: Had good trips, beat weak fields, earned soft Beyers, and now possible physical issues. I'll pass.
Owner: Brad Grady; Trainer: Joe Sharp; Jockey: Mike Smith

Hence 20-1 Sunland Derby, 3/26 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Sunland Derby looking better. Irap (Blue Grass 1st), Conquest Mo Money (Ark. Derby 2nd) exited.
by Street Boss 1st by 3 3/4, 97 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: Maybe that says something about the Blue Grass, Ark. Derby. He had great setup at Sunland.
Owner: Calumet Farm; Trainer: Steve Asmussen; Jockey: Florent Geroux

Irap 20-1 Blue Grass, 4/8 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Picked opportune time to win first race, but prior form an indictment of many he beat at Kee.
by Tiznow 1st 3/4, 93 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: His previous failures at Sunland took everyone in the Blue Grass down a peg or two, or 10.
Owner: Reddam Racing; Trainer: Doug O'Neill; Jockey: Mario Gutierrez

J Boys Echo 20-1 Blue Grass, 4/8 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Got bumped around leaving gate, but other than that, didn't see much excuse for missing the tri.
by Mineshaft 4th by 6 1/4, 84 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: The way a contested pace helped when he won Gotham, the lack of pace hurt in Blue Grass.
Owner: Albaugh Family Stable; Trainer: Dale Romans; Jockey: Luis Saez

Tapwrit 20-1 Blue Grass, 4/8 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Wide trip didn't help, but after improving steadily, he didn't fire. This year's Thunder Gulch?
by Tapit 5th by 11 1/2, 76 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: Thunder Gulch doesn’t deserve that. His Tampa form had holes, and didn't run a step at Kee.
Owner: Bridlewood Farm, Eclipse Thoroughbred & Robert LaPenta; Trainer: Todd Pletcher; Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Thunder Snow 20-1 UAE Derby, 3/25 Kentucky Derby, 1 1/4 m JP: Talented colt has adapted well to dirt in Dubai this spring, seems like an intriguing prospect.
by Helmet 1st by a nose, 94 Churchill Downs, 5/6 MW: I get the appeal of the "new face" angle, but the first Ky. Derby winner from Dubai will beat me.
Owner: Godolphin Racing; Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor; Jockey: Christophe Soumillon

________________________________________________________________________

I'm thinking more and more that the Derby looks like Classic Empire vs. Irish War Cry if each gets a good post position and it's a fast track.

One thing to think about is that if have an exacta with a 5/1 over a 7/1, you can expect to $60+. Additionally, if you get those odds in a big field, the price usually goes up. But as the two of the three favorites, this exacta could be about $35-40.

The wise guy horse is Hence who won at Sunland and the two horses he beat went to the AR Derby where they came in 2nd and 3rd. He got a dream trip and really fast first half to set up an artificially high speed figure.

WTF is up with running a one-eyed horse, "Patch?" Doesn't seem like the best idea in a 20 horse field

What's ironic is that I would not be surprised if Patch wears blinders as well.

I'll be happy to book all bets on Patch. He won a maiden race and came in second in a bad prep to qualify. He could be one of the biggest prices ever in the Derby.

Classic Empire and McCracken have each won multiple races at Chruchill Downs. Guennevera has a pattern of good race, bad race, good race, bad race. His last race was bad.

The draw will be tomorrow.

Just came for the tags.

RJ, stop reading my posts.

Here's a long shot for your trifectas/superfectas/Super High 5s -Sonneteer - He's a maiden who will closing past tired horses. He will justifiably be 99-1 or more but can get a check if the pace is hot.

BiffTannen said:

Just came for the tags.

Click to expand...

They are solid

Here's a fun $10.20 bet:

$0.10 superfecta:

Box - Irish War Cry/Classic Empire/McCracken for 1st-3rd
over a wheel of everyone for fourth

rj, who is considered the best handicapper in the world?

To me it's Andy (Andrew) Beyer of the Washington Post and Daily Racing Form. His speed figures are used all over North America and led to a lot of the new ones. The good thing about Beyer is he tells you what he is betting.

Mike Watchmaker is also really good. He sets Morning Lines. http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-watch-weekly-divisional-ratings

There's an apparently crazy British guy named John McCrick. He dresses really wildly but does pick winners. He is really fun to watch.

Post Horse Jockey Trainer Morning line odds
1 Lookin at Lee Corey Lanerie Steve Asmussen 20-1
2 Thunder Snow Christophe Soumillon Saaed bin Suroor 20-1
3 Fast and Accurate Channing Hill Mike Maker 50-1
4 Untrapped Ricardo Santana Jr Steve Asmussen 30-1
5 Always Dreaming John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 5-1
6 State of Honor Jose Lezcano Mark Casse 30-1
7 Girvin Mike Smith Joe Sharp 15-1
8 Hence Floren Geroux Steve Asmussen 15-1
9 Irap Mario Gutierrez Doug O'Neill 20-1
10 Gunnevera Javier Castellano Antonio Sano 15-1
11 Battle of Midway Flavien Prat Jerry Hollendorfer 30-1
12 Sonneteer Kent Desormeaux Keith Desormeaux 50-1
13 J Boys Echo Luis Saez Dale Romans 20-1
14 Classic Empire Julien Laparoux Mark Casse 4-1
15 McCraken Brian Hernandez Jr Ian Wilkes 5-1
16 Tapwrit Jose Ortiz Todd Pletcher 20-1
17 Irish War Cry Rajiv Maragh Graham Motion 6-1
18 Gormley Victor Espinoza John Shirreffs 15-1
19 Practical Joke Joel Rosario Chad Brown 20-1
20 Patch Tyler Gafflione Todd Pletcher 30-1

Always Dreaming got a dream draw, but i'm not sure that will help enough.

The 14/15 post positions that Classic Empire and McCracken got are really good. The reason is the primary starting gate has 14 slots. Then, there is a 3-5' gap until you get to the second starting gate. This helps the 14 & 15 horses get a little bit of a cleaner break. They aren't as likely to run into traffic when the gate opens as other horses.

Getting #17 is not ideal for Irish War Cry but being almost directly outside of McCracken and Classic Empire makes it a bit better.

In most races, the Morning Line favorite will go off lower than his ML odds as most people who set the lines don't like to put favorites at 8/5 or lower to start. That being said, I would not be surprised if the favorite is 5-1. With all the buzz, I could see Classic Empire and Always Dreaming being co-favorites at 5-1.

If this happens, McCracken will float up to about 7-1 and Irish War Cry will be about 8-1.

I think Hence may the be the "wise guy" horse and drop from a ML of 15-1 to 10-1.

Weather for Saturday

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/USNC1720:27:US

SAT
MAY 6
Partly Cloudy
70°49°
20% WSW 15 mph 56%
UV INDEX SUNRISE SUNSET MOONRISE MOONSET
7 of 10

Intervals of clouds and sunshine in the morning with more clouds for later in the day. Slight chance of a rain shower. High around 70F. Winds WSW at 10 to 20 mph.

The way it looks there will be some rain Friday and a couple of showers early Saturday. If that is what happens, the track will be even faster.

However, the direction and strength of the wind can be much more of a factor. if you have a 15-20 head wind in the long Churchill Downs stretch, it will be a lot more difficult to close from off the pace. Having cover will also be a big factor if it's windy. You won't want to move outside other horses too soon. You want the benefit of having others run into the wind and cover for you.

We'll know more late Thursday and Friday.

Here's a perfect example of why stats without context are meaningless. No horse has ever won from Post Position 17. That sounds really ominous and terribly bad luck for Irish War Cry.

I went back and looked at looked at every Derby since 2000. Since then, the only horse that was under 10-1 in #17 was Point Given. To this day, Gary Stevens is still apologizing to Bob Baffert for his horrible ride in the Derby. Other than Point Given, no horse in that post has been less than the fifth favorite.

Commanding Curve got 2nd to Chrome in 2014 at 37-1.

The fact no one has won form #17 is much more about who has been #17 than the post.

so let's say i wanna spend $50 and i like mccracken and irish war cry

how would you bet, rj?

TownieDeac said:

so let's say i wanna spend $50 and i like mccracken and irish war cry

how would you bet, rj?

Click to expand...

If you want to bet just those two horses, here are a couple of ways:

#1:

$10 Exacta Box of them
$10 to win/$5 place on Each

I'm guessing the exacta will pay about $60-80 for $2. Thus a $10 exacta will pay about $300-400.

Add something in the $100-125 range for the W/P bets.

#2:

This could win more money or break even if one wins.

$7 to win on each

$0.50 Trifecta wheel - McCracken over Irish War Cry over ALL

$0.50 Trifecta wheel- Irish War Cry over McCracken over ALL

If a favorite comes in third, the Tri will pay about $150. If a long shot hits the board, it could be over $500.

On #2, you'd be hoping for a long shot to come in 3rd.

#3:

$15 to win/$10 place on each.

Safer but not as much fun. If one of them wins and the other is off the board, you'd likely get back about $125. If one wins and the other comes in second (when finished bitching about not betting the exacta), you'd get back about $150-170.


I'd probably go with #1, then #3 and #2.