Pilchard
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Here is the Vegas and Kenpom skinny on tomorrow's game (which is a must win):
Outlaw line (the early line as the game is only posted at few sports books with low limits right now): WF -2.5
Kenpom prediction: WF 72-70
WF is currently 99 in KP ratings; Cuse is 70.
WF's offense is #49 in the nation; defense is #186 (yikes)
Cuse's O is #92; defense is #60.
Cuse's offense relies heavily on the 3 pointer as 36% of its points come from beyond the arc (35th in the nation). Even so, Cuse doesn't shoot a great % from 3 (34.5%). The only stat category where Cuse's O ranks in the top 100 is offensive rebounding percentage (72nd in the nation). Cuse does not shoot free throws well (67.9% - 226th; almost identical to WF 68% - 220th).
Cuse's strengths are in its defense. Even though they exclusively play zone, Cuse is 4th in the nation in steal %, 18th in 3 point FG defense (29.9%), and 23rd in block shot percentage (they block 14% of their opponents shots). They held BC to 40 points in their last game, after giving up 84 to UNC the game before.
Cuse played very well in November, starting 6-0, beating Texas A&M and UCONN, but they have collapsed since, going 5-7 over the last 12 (many of those games were without Boeheim), including an awful loss to St. John's and 0-4 start to the ACC season before beating BC at home on Wednesday.
Their best player is Michael Gbinje, who Dino recruited very hard out of Richmond, but ended up at Duke. After limited PT at Duke as a frosh, Gbrinje then transferred to Cuse, and has played in the Carrier Dome the last 3 years. He has scored in double figures in every Cuse game this year, and plays almost every minute of Cuse games (7th in the nation in % of team's minutes played; has played at least 37 minutes in all 5 Cuse ACC games). Gbinje is very erratic from 3. 5-10 versus Pitt; 0-7 against Miami;0-6 against UNC. In ACC play, Gbinje is shooting only 17% from 3.
Freshman swingman Malachi Richardson has played well in ACC games; averaging 16 ppg and shooting 53% from 3.
Cuse plays with a short bench as they are 351st in the nation in bench minutes.
WF is playing at home, and has the deeper and possibly more talented team. With the toughest part of its schedule on deck, the Deacs need this game. If WF can limit turnovers and defend the 3 (WF is 179th in 3 point FG defense), WF will win the game. If the game comes down to free throws, both teams are almost equally bad.
Think that WF is better than its stats show (perhaps Black and Gold colored glasses), and believe WF will win. Should the Deacs lose, WF may face a 1-8 start to ACC play as the Deacs will be big underdogs in each of the next 4. The VT loss really hurt. A loss to Cuse would hurt even more.
Outlaw line (the early line as the game is only posted at few sports books with low limits right now): WF -2.5
Kenpom prediction: WF 72-70
WF is currently 99 in KP ratings; Cuse is 70.
WF's offense is #49 in the nation; defense is #186 (yikes)
Cuse's O is #92; defense is #60.
Cuse's offense relies heavily on the 3 pointer as 36% of its points come from beyond the arc (35th in the nation). Even so, Cuse doesn't shoot a great % from 3 (34.5%). The only stat category where Cuse's O ranks in the top 100 is offensive rebounding percentage (72nd in the nation). Cuse does not shoot free throws well (67.9% - 226th; almost identical to WF 68% - 220th).
Cuse's strengths are in its defense. Even though they exclusively play zone, Cuse is 4th in the nation in steal %, 18th in 3 point FG defense (29.9%), and 23rd in block shot percentage (they block 14% of their opponents shots). They held BC to 40 points in their last game, after giving up 84 to UNC the game before.
Cuse played very well in November, starting 6-0, beating Texas A&M and UCONN, but they have collapsed since, going 5-7 over the last 12 (many of those games were without Boeheim), including an awful loss to St. John's and 0-4 start to the ACC season before beating BC at home on Wednesday.
Their best player is Michael Gbinje, who Dino recruited very hard out of Richmond, but ended up at Duke. After limited PT at Duke as a frosh, Gbrinje then transferred to Cuse, and has played in the Carrier Dome the last 3 years. He has scored in double figures in every Cuse game this year, and plays almost every minute of Cuse games (7th in the nation in % of team's minutes played; has played at least 37 minutes in all 5 Cuse ACC games). Gbinje is very erratic from 3. 5-10 versus Pitt; 0-7 against Miami;0-6 against UNC. In ACC play, Gbinje is shooting only 17% from 3.
Freshman swingman Malachi Richardson has played well in ACC games; averaging 16 ppg and shooting 53% from 3.
Cuse plays with a short bench as they are 351st in the nation in bench minutes.
WF is playing at home, and has the deeper and possibly more talented team. With the toughest part of its schedule on deck, the Deacs need this game. If WF can limit turnovers and defend the 3 (WF is 179th in 3 point FG defense), WF will win the game. If the game comes down to free throws, both teams are almost equally bad.
Think that WF is better than its stats show (perhaps Black and Gold colored glasses), and believe WF will win. Should the Deacs lose, WF may face a 1-8 start to ACC play as the Deacs will be big underdogs in each of the next 4. The VT loss really hurt. A loss to Cuse would hurt even more.
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