So I have a new theory that may explain the blue wave in 2018 and no wave this year and the polls. Trump greatly outperforms the polls in FL and the Midwest. The old truism was that Dems do well when there is a presidential election but not in off years. Maybe Trump has turned that on its head. Dems who hate Trump show up in the midterms. His voters, many of whom are non college educated whites who didn’t used to vote regularly, don’t show up in midterms because they care deeply about Trump but not congress. This is why the polls were pretty accurate in 2018, and this year were reasonably accurate in NC, GA, AZ and NV. And it’s why it’s only going to be a 4-5 point victory instead of the 7 points that the polls said. So where pollsters are missing the boat are in FL, PA, OH, IA, MI and WI in presidential election years. And normally, you’d say 2 Dems in runoffs in GA on 1/4/21 would normally never stand a chance, because, like in midterms, Dems and especially the African American vote don’t turn out as well. But maybe this year, Warnock and Ossoff have a better chance than they would in off years because Trump supporters won't care as much. And with 50K votes remaining in GA, yeah, I think Ossoff makes it to a runoff. The other FL thing the polls missed this year was the yuge Miami Cuban turnout. Maybe the turnout wasn't as good in 2016 because of Trump's attacks on Rubio and Cruz. But this year, Trump started working the Miami area earlier than Biden did with the message Biden will give in to socialists like Sanders, AOC, Castro, Ortega and Maduro. They were probably also happy that Trump reversed Obama's course in opening relations with Cuba.
It looks like GA will be wrapped up today, and I like Biden's chances. He needs to take about 70% of the remaining 50K votes. And Biden will pass Trump in PA by the end of the day. AZ will probably tighten further, though Kelly is probably safe, having a 50K bigger lead than Biden has.
