Pilchard
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The pesky Deacs look for their first road win of the season tomorrow when they invade frigid South Bend to challenge Notre Dame. Here is the take on the Irish:
This season: Another disappointing season for Mike Brey (Brey has now spent 20 years as the ND head coach and had some great ACC teams from 2015 to 2017, including an ACC title, but ND has not made the NCAAs in 4 years, and ND is 16-31 in the ACC over the last 3 seasons). This year, ND sits at 6-9 (3-6) #69 in KP. ND has 3 top 100 wins (#51 KY by 1, #95 BC by 10 and #85 Pitt by 26 on Saturday). ND has won 3 of their last 4 with two of those wins coming against the same struggling ACC teams that WF just beat #121 Miami and #85 Pitt. Saturday's win over Pitt was, by far, ND's best game of the year as the Irish shot a blistering 54% from 3 and 58% from 2, while holding the Panthers to 31% from the field. ND plays at GT and at Duke after WF.
The lineup:
In the win over Pitt ND started:
6-3 Jr. Prentiss Hubb: 3 year starter; has been hot lately 16-29 from 3 over the last 4 games; leader in minutes, points, 3s made, assists and TOs (8 to 5 Assist to TO ratio)
6-5 Jr. Trey Wertz: Santa Clara transfer; missed a bunch of games early; erratic scorer; scored 27 against Purdue; only scored in double figure only one other time; 39% from 3
6-6 Jr. Dane Goodman: shooter; 40% from 3; 85% from the line; not super athletic or a great defender
6-10 Jr. Nate Laszewski: tough matchup; big man that is shooting 52% from 3; had 28 in a loss to UVA; leading rebounder; not a shot blocker
6-11 Sr. Juwan Durham: UCONN transfer; thought he would have a better career; inconsistent, but has been better lately; double figures in 4 of the last 5; primary shot blocker on the roster; no threat from 3
Off the bench, the Irish primarily utilize:
6-5 Jr. Cormac Ryan: Stanford transfer; coming off his best game of the season; 19 points (5 of 6 from 3) against Pitt; leader in steals; 35% from 3; 87% from the line
6-8 Sr. Nikola Djogo: from Canada; not a scorer; to the extent anyone on ND plays D; he would be the one
Analytics: ND is one of the biggest (#13) most experienced (#51) teams in the country. They also have little depth (#339 in bench minutes). Like every Mike Brey team, they are better on offense (#7 in the ACC) than on defense (#10). On offense, ND doesn't turn it over (#2 in the ACC in TO%), they rely on the 3 point shot (#4 in the ACC in 3 PT% 37%' #5 in the ACC in percentage of offense from 3s). They do not offensive rebound (DFL in the ACC), and they are #13 in the ACC in the amount of offense coming from 2 point shots. Defense is just not emphasized at ND, and ND typically doesn't recruit elite defensive players. ND does NOT pressure the ball (DFL in defensive TO %, DFL in steal %), and as a result, they don't foul much (1st in the ACC in defensive FTA per FGA). Because of ND's size and lack of ball pressure, ND is solid at defending the paint (#2 in the ACC in 2 PT FG% defense). ND plays at a slow tempo (65 possessions per game in ACC play) as among ACC teams, only UVA is slower.
Bottom line: KP projects a 75-69 ND win (67 possessions). Despite ND's size, this is a decent matchup for WF. ND doesn't pressure the ball. ND doesn't offensive rebound. This game will likely comedown to how well WF defends the 3 (ND has been hot lately) and how WF shoots the 3 as ND will give WF open looks. Like the fact that the Irish are coming off an epic shooting performance as typically teams bounce after shooting lights out. OTOH, this game is big for ND as they will be significant dogs in their next two, and the Irish are only 3-6 in the conference. Laszewski is a match up issue for WF as he is 6-10, but is an elite shooter. Looks like the game will be low scoring and tight. Give the Irish an edge, but WF is competitive every night, and it's only a matter of time before Coach Forbes grabs his first ACC road win.
This season: Another disappointing season for Mike Brey (Brey has now spent 20 years as the ND head coach and had some great ACC teams from 2015 to 2017, including an ACC title, but ND has not made the NCAAs in 4 years, and ND is 16-31 in the ACC over the last 3 seasons). This year, ND sits at 6-9 (3-6) #69 in KP. ND has 3 top 100 wins (#51 KY by 1, #95 BC by 10 and #85 Pitt by 26 on Saturday). ND has won 3 of their last 4 with two of those wins coming against the same struggling ACC teams that WF just beat #121 Miami and #85 Pitt. Saturday's win over Pitt was, by far, ND's best game of the year as the Irish shot a blistering 54% from 3 and 58% from 2, while holding the Panthers to 31% from the field. ND plays at GT and at Duke after WF.
The lineup:
In the win over Pitt ND started:
6-3 Jr. Prentiss Hubb: 3 year starter; has been hot lately 16-29 from 3 over the last 4 games; leader in minutes, points, 3s made, assists and TOs (8 to 5 Assist to TO ratio)
6-5 Jr. Trey Wertz: Santa Clara transfer; missed a bunch of games early; erratic scorer; scored 27 against Purdue; only scored in double figure only one other time; 39% from 3
6-6 Jr. Dane Goodman: shooter; 40% from 3; 85% from the line; not super athletic or a great defender
6-10 Jr. Nate Laszewski: tough matchup; big man that is shooting 52% from 3; had 28 in a loss to UVA; leading rebounder; not a shot blocker
6-11 Sr. Juwan Durham: UCONN transfer; thought he would have a better career; inconsistent, but has been better lately; double figures in 4 of the last 5; primary shot blocker on the roster; no threat from 3
Off the bench, the Irish primarily utilize:
6-5 Jr. Cormac Ryan: Stanford transfer; coming off his best game of the season; 19 points (5 of 6 from 3) against Pitt; leader in steals; 35% from 3; 87% from the line
6-8 Sr. Nikola Djogo: from Canada; not a scorer; to the extent anyone on ND plays D; he would be the one
Analytics: ND is one of the biggest (#13) most experienced (#51) teams in the country. They also have little depth (#339 in bench minutes). Like every Mike Brey team, they are better on offense (#7 in the ACC) than on defense (#10). On offense, ND doesn't turn it over (#2 in the ACC in TO%), they rely on the 3 point shot (#4 in the ACC in 3 PT% 37%' #5 in the ACC in percentage of offense from 3s). They do not offensive rebound (DFL in the ACC), and they are #13 in the ACC in the amount of offense coming from 2 point shots. Defense is just not emphasized at ND, and ND typically doesn't recruit elite defensive players. ND does NOT pressure the ball (DFL in defensive TO %, DFL in steal %), and as a result, they don't foul much (1st in the ACC in defensive FTA per FGA). Because of ND's size and lack of ball pressure, ND is solid at defending the paint (#2 in the ACC in 2 PT FG% defense). ND plays at a slow tempo (65 possessions per game in ACC play) as among ACC teams, only UVA is slower.
Bottom line: KP projects a 75-69 ND win (67 possessions). Despite ND's size, this is a decent matchup for WF. ND doesn't pressure the ball. ND doesn't offensive rebound. This game will likely comedown to how well WF defends the 3 (ND has been hot lately) and how WF shoots the 3 as ND will give WF open looks. Like the fact that the Irish are coming off an epic shooting performance as typically teams bounce after shooting lights out. OTOH, this game is big for ND as they will be significant dogs in their next two, and the Irish are only 3-6 in the conference. Laszewski is a match up issue for WF as he is 6-10, but is an elite shooter. Looks like the game will be low scoring and tight. Give the Irish an edge, but WF is competitive every night, and it's only a matter of time before Coach Forbes grabs his first ACC road win.
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