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Investment Thread - For all your money needs

PhDeac said:
Why?
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The beat Q3 forecasts so people are seeing a buying opp. At the same time they basically said not to expect much in Q4, so this is likely a temporary bump before another rug pull. Cathy Wood has taken an epic beating on Roku.
 
Stock was down 20%+ on a horrible 4Q guide.

It has been very strong the last few hours and almost got back to flat... The stock popped on rumors that MSFT would be interested in buying them. It's probably not gonna happen. More likely that the stock bleeds out and goes lower once other in the ad world come clean about how bad business is (probably post-election when the political $$$ dries up).
 
Liquid Karma said:
The beat Q3 forecasts so people are seeing a buying opp. At the same time they basically said not to expect much in Q4, so this is likely a temporary bump before another rug pull. Cathy Wood has taken an epic beating on Roku.
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In fairness, 3Q forecasts had been lowered significantly from the last Q when they blew up. So it was a pretty blah quarter, TBH. ROKU has lately liked to really lower expectations and then beat them slightly.
 
DeacsATS said:
In fairness, 3Q forecasts had been lowered significantly from the last Q when they blew up. So it was a pretty blah quarter, TBH. ROKU has lately liked to really lower expectations and then beat them slightly.
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Bull trap?

I feel like everyone keeps trying to time the bottom and buy back in and just end up bag holding. I don't know a lot, but I'm convinced we still have a decent period of bear market in front of us.
 
Liquid Karma said:
The beat Q3 forecasts so people are seeing a buying opp. At the same time they basically said not to expect much in Q4, so this is likely a temporary bump before another rug pull. Cathy Wood has taken an epic beating on Roku.
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OK, but what is Roku doing differently to justify this?
 
Liquid Karma said:
Bull trap?

I feel like everyone keeps trying to time the bottom and buy back in and just end up bag holding. I don't know a lot, but I'm convinced we still have a decent period of bear market in front of us.
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Agree.

I mean, once the actual recession gets here, it'll probably be time to buy. But we're still in this no man's land of Fed raising rates and some sectors doing well while others fall apart.

And it's tough for the broader market to work when the biggest cap stocks are shedding value (META AMZN GOOGL).
 
DeacsATS said:
I know you were asking LK, but I don't understand the question.
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Roku is a business. What is Roku doing as a business to justify this bump?
 
PhDeac said:
OK, but what is Roku doing differently to justify this?
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Not a thing. Some large players scooped shares cheap to drive the price up and are going to dump them on people too stupid to ask the obvious question you are asking.
 
PhDeac said:
Roku is a business. What is Roku doing as a business to justify this bump?
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Liquid Karma said:
Not a thing. Some large players scooped shares cheap to drive the price up and are going to dump them on people too stupid to ask the obvious question you are asking.
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OK. That's what I figured.
 
ROKU, the stock, is down from an all-time high of ~$473 last July to the current price of ~$50.

I wouldn't say they are doing anything differently over that time frame... It is a combination of the broader market sell-off (growth stocks worth less with higher rates) and a change in sentiment about the potential value of these streaming businesses. ROKU, which came out of NFLX, is a unique business that acts as more of a gatekeeper than a provider of content. So they are impacted more by ad revenue, while more traditional streamers trade on subscriber metrics.

Yesterday afternoon, ROKU surprised investors by stating that business has fallen apart in the 4th quarter because large branded advertisers have started to pull back on ad spend. ROKU management said they don't have a lot of visibility into their business right now, so they guided investors to really disappointing numbers for 4Q. This was especially surprising because other advertising companies are still doing OK... Or at least they say they are. Or maybe they are benefiting from political ad spend that ROKU isn't seeing (they don't have much exposure there).

Today, the stock was off another 20%, which is a big move. It recovered a bit when some talking heads posited that MSFT might come in and buy them. There have been rumors for a while now that somebody might buy ROKU because it is a business that would fit in well with companies like MSFT, GOOGL, or even NFLX (again). But nothing has happened.

That's the story.
 
Well that was a good day. Is it possible that we've turned the corner on inflation?
 
Rents are 1/3 of the Fed's Core CPI measure and very few people seem to be talking about how much rental rate increases are going to drive inflation going forward. There's still a lot of dislocation between real estate values and rents that has to be reconciled.
 
DeacsATS said:
Inflation has likely peaked.

However, it will likely hang around a lot longer (years) than most people expect.
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what does it mean for inflation to have peaked but hang around?

there is (almost) always some level of inflation in the current economic system -- are you saying that it will be higher than average for years on a month-over-month basis, but not as high as it has been in the past 6-12 months?
 
Donkey Deac Doug said:

The housing choice voucher program is the federal government's major program for assisting very low-income families, the elderly, and the disabled to afford decent, safe, and sanitary housing in the private market. Since housing assistance is provided on behalf of the family or individual, participants are able to find their own housing, including single-family homes, townhouses and apartments.

The participant is free to choose any housing that meets the requirements of the program and is not limited to units located in subsidized housing projects.
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This response reads as if you have -zero- real world familiarity with the section 8 voucher process and the availability of section 8 housing. I have direct familiarity with it, and I am here to help you out. There is an extreme national shortage of section 8 housing( 7 million!) https://nlihc.org/gap
The application process can take months to years(!) to process. Took my parents 7 months to be approved and find a rental unit in Winston Salem.

Section 8 housing standards are extremely poor and mismanaged, so that housing conditions are very often horrendous.

On top of all that, the income limitation rules on section 8, very similar to the ACA, make it so that their is a massive coverage gap between those eligible for Section 8 and those ineligible who can afford unsubsidized housing.
 
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