Pilchard
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This Saturday, the Deacs play their last roadie (yay!!!) of the season at Cassell Coliseum; even with all of WF's road struggles, does seem like the season flew by.
Deacs Pound VT To Start the ACC Season
WF opened its 2023-24 ACC regular season with a big 86-63 win over the Hokies and the link to that thread can be found here.
Before WF worked VT on December 30, the Hokies were the higher rated team (VT - #50; WF #55), but after WF smoked the Hokies that day, the Deacs passed VT in the ratings, and presently 18-10 (10-7) WF sits at #22 in KP, while the Hokies 15-13 (7-10) are rated #56.
Home Success and Road Failures
Despite the difference of 31 spots in the KP ratings, there are strong similarities between the Deacs' and Hokies season:
Analytics:
Given the stark home/road differences between these two schools, below is the WF/VT home/road comparison by the numbers:
VT home offense ----------- WF road defense (national ranks)
Adj. Eff. 118 #28 ----------- 97 #22
Eff. FG% 57 #36 ----------- 49 #57
3 PT% 37 #74 ------------- 30 #19
2 PT% 58 #28 ------------- 52 #162
FT% 82 #2 ---------------- 72 #165
VT home defense ---------- WF road offense
Adj. Eff. 96 #45 ------------ 111 #76
Eff. FG% 48 #138 ----------- 48 #212
3 PT% 34 #218 ------------- 30 #262
2 PT% 47 #97 -------------- 50 #126
FT% 68 #57 ----------------- 83 #1
VT does everything better at home.
Deacs aren't road warriors. Offensively, other than shoot FTs (Deacs are the best road FT shooting team in the nation --- in your face to the other 361 D-1 teams!) , WF massively struggles on the road. They say defense travels, and WF has played solid road defense, but the WF offense has been wretched on the road, particularly the 3 PT shooting (WF shoots 43% from three at home -- #6 in the nation and 30% from three on the road -- #262 in the nation; just a mind-boggling difference). Given the numbers above, fair to conclude that venue may play a role in the game outcome. KP gives VT 3.5 points when playing in Cassell, which is 66th out of the 362 D-1 teams. Seems like the margin could be bigger than that in this matchup.
The Projection:
KP WF 76-75
Torvik VT 77-76
Given the home/road analysis above, really tough to project a WF win on Saturday. That said, feel like Forbes will have the Deacs ready on Saturday. The ND loss was the classic flat spot after WF's game of the year, and with the urgency of the season-ending and the chance to finish WF road schedule with a win, Forbes will have WF ready to play. That said, fully expect Mike Young to have the Hokies motivated for revenge after the WF blow-out and after two rough road performances. May be wearing Black and Gold colored glasses, but just like WF jumped over the Q1 hump with the Duke win last Saturday, think WF gets over its road blues this Saturday, despite the numbers screaming otherwise. Expect a competitive game, and still have faith in this team to do special things this year.
Deacs Pound VT To Start the ACC Season
WF opened its 2023-24 ACC regular season with a big 86-63 win over the Hokies and the link to that thread can be found here.
Before WF worked VT on December 30, the Hokies were the higher rated team (VT - #50; WF #55), but after WF smoked the Hokies that day, the Deacs passed VT in the ratings, and presently 18-10 (10-7) WF sits at #22 in KP, while the Hokies 15-13 (7-10) are rated #56.
Home Success and Road Failures
Despite the difference of 31 spots in the KP ratings, there are strong similarities between the Deacs' and Hokies season:
- The Hokies play well at home 12-2 (6-2); WF is 15-0 (8-0)
- The Hokies crumble on the road (1-9); WF is 2-8 (2-7)
Analytics:
Given the stark home/road differences between these two schools, below is the WF/VT home/road comparison by the numbers:
VT home offense ----------- WF road defense (national ranks)
Adj. Eff. 118 #28 ----------- 97 #22
Eff. FG% 57 #36 ----------- 49 #57
3 PT% 37 #74 ------------- 30 #19
2 PT% 58 #28 ------------- 52 #162
FT% 82 #2 ---------------- 72 #165
VT home defense ---------- WF road offense
Adj. Eff. 96 #45 ------------ 111 #76
Eff. FG% 48 #138 ----------- 48 #212
3 PT% 34 #218 ------------- 30 #262
2 PT% 47 #97 -------------- 50 #126
FT% 68 #57 ----------------- 83 #1
VT does everything better at home.
Deacs aren't road warriors. Offensively, other than shoot FTs (Deacs are the best road FT shooting team in the nation --- in your face to the other 361 D-1 teams!) , WF massively struggles on the road. They say defense travels, and WF has played solid road defense, but the WF offense has been wretched on the road, particularly the 3 PT shooting (WF shoots 43% from three at home -- #6 in the nation and 30% from three on the road -- #262 in the nation; just a mind-boggling difference). Given the numbers above, fair to conclude that venue may play a role in the game outcome. KP gives VT 3.5 points when playing in Cassell, which is 66th out of the 362 D-1 teams. Seems like the margin could be bigger than that in this matchup.
The Projection:
KP WF 76-75
Torvik VT 77-76
Given the home/road analysis above, really tough to project a WF win on Saturday. That said, feel like Forbes will have the Deacs ready on Saturday. The ND loss was the classic flat spot after WF's game of the year, and with the urgency of the season-ending and the chance to finish WF road schedule with a win, Forbes will have WF ready to play. That said, fully expect Mike Young to have the Hokies motivated for revenge after the WF blow-out and after two rough road performances. May be wearing Black and Gold colored glasses, but just like WF jumped over the Q1 hump with the Duke win last Saturday, think WF gets over its road blues this Saturday, despite the numbers screaming otherwise. Expect a competitive game, and still have faith in this team to do special things this year.