They've been pretty meh in ACC play aside from their (admittedly impressive) win vs. Duke. A 1-point loss @ MD, a 4-point win vs. Clemson, a 5-point win @ BC, and a home win vs. GT in which they won by 13 but were tied 55-55 with about 7 minutes left.
The closest analogue to tonight's game appears to be their win @ BC. They beat BC by only 5 despite shooting 48%, only turning the ball over 7 times, only outrebounding BC by 2, and where BC shot 41% overall and 31% from 3.
Granted I think BC is a better matchup against State than we are -- mostly, if not entirely because of Anderson -- but I don't think 7 is a crazy-low spread. In any event, I predict we'll lose by more than that simply because we appear to be really good at not making FTs (BC made 24 vs. State) and getting our shot blocked (State only blocked 2 of BC's shots, a number we'll likely top by the first TV time-out).