Home-Road Volatility

This thread is for the sports stats guys out there.

Is there any more volatile team from a home to road performance standpoint than Wake in the whole country?

At home, this team is a decent squad. On the road they are atrocious.

We're inconsistent on the road because we don't play defense or rebound. Offense on the road can be hard to find, so if you don't do those things consistently you're going to struggle.

Gminski just quoted [Redacted] regarding his road futility: "I've tried everything I know to get these guys to win on the road"


That about says it to me. The dude does not know how to get his teams to win on the road. Time for a change.

It's not like we're some juggernaut at home. State played awful against us and Duke was sans Kelly. Yes, we looked sharp, but those games were the exception rather than the rule.

Thanks for the stats.

The Kenpom Marketing Department can probably speak to this.

It's been a long time but if I remember correctly... Even if we were to somehow qualify for the NIT, I'm pretty sure most of those games are on the road.

BuzzOUT! Till he's gone...

You've got to be fucking mental to still support this head coach.


http://acc.blogs.starnewsonline.com/files/2010/04/jeff-[Redacted].jpg

We are Guiness records bad.

demondeacfreak said:

We're inconsistent on the road because we don't play defense or rebound. Offense on the road can be hard to find, so if you don't do those things consistently you're going to struggle.

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This plus it takes leadership and confidence. We get neither from Buzz. He should be fired today! What a disgrace.

We are bad at home and on the road. Stupid thread.

VaDeac said:

The Kenpom Marketing Department can probably speak to this.

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I asked him on Twitter and this was his answer:

Ken Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
@BSD_RaJohnston I don't have anything on that because I fear people would infer meaning from it that doesn't exist.

Thanks to doofus and to a smaller degree VaDeac for being the only people with any reading comprehension skills who responded to this thread.

Deacsfan27 said:

I asked him on Twitter and this was his answer:

Ken Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
@BSD_RaJohnston I don't have anything on that because I fear people would infer meaning from it that doesn't exist.

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Legit point because there aren't enough neutral site games between a diverse enough sample to get an interpretation. Is it home court advantage or road court disadvantage?

But just doing pure numbers would be easy enough. Someone with a subscription could just compare the difference between actual score and Kenpom projection at home vs road for ACC teams in ACC games.

I was actually wondering the same thing. The delta is just crazy - we have only one road win right? And it was UNCG which hardly counts (as there might have been more wake fans there).

The problem with comparing the predictions with the actual scores is that the predictions go away the next day when the site is updated as they are replaced with the actual score.

Not that this would have anything to do with Bzz currently, but look at the success Colorado and Air Force have been having sans this puke.

PhDeac said:

Legit point because there aren't enough neutral site games between a diverse enough sample to get an interpretation. Is it home court advantage or road court disadvantage?

But just doing pure numbers would be easy enough. Someone with a subscription could just compare the difference between actual score and Kenpom projection at home vs road for ACC teams in ACC games.

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He credits an 8 point swing between home and away. He had a lengthy Twitter conversation with me, here is what he had to say.

Ken Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
@BSD_RaJohnston Just being bad makes it possible. I just don't know how lack of prep/motivation would only be an issue on the road.
View conversation

25m Ken Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
@BSD_RaJohnston Partly explained by bad Wake teams and CU normally has larger home/road splits than most. Rest unexplainable or bad luck.
View conversation

32m Ken Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
@BSD_RaJohnston I'm in the minority, but I don't think it says anything about a lack of character or is of use in a predictive sense.
View conversation

Riley Johnston ‏@BSD_RaJohnston
@kenpomeroy So Jeff [Redacted] is 2-43 on the road at Wake and Colorado. Is it just because he is a bad coach or is there something more to it?
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22m Ken Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
@BSD_RaJohnston I mean, what about a coach would make him particularly bad on the road? I'm open to theories...
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20m Riley Johnston ‏@BSD_RaJohnston
@kenpomeroy I'm not disagreeing with you or anything. Really curious how we can be that bad on the road the past 3 years. 1-34 or something.
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14m Ken Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
@BSD_RaJohnston How many times over that span have they been favored on the road?
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12m Riley Johnston ‏@BSD_RaJohnston
@kenpomeroy Probably very few. I agree with you there, but how many times have we failed to come close to the spread?
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8m Ken Pomeroy ‏@kenpomeroy
@BSD_RaJohnston That should be your research project.

Riley Johnston ‏@BSD_RaJohnston
@kenpomeroy Not sure of the answer but it feels like we are never close. I'll do some preliminary research. This year we are 2-3 vs. your spread.

Wakeforest22890 said:

The problem with comparing the predictions with the actual scores is that the predictions go away the next day when the site is updated as they are replaced with the actual score.

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Thought subscribers would have access to past predictions.

Still could track it going forward.

KP does have a point about our performances on the road against the spread.

We are 2-3 against the spread (covering Duke and VT). The 3 losses have been WAY above the spread though.