• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Decision Analysis: 1st and Goal at WFU 1, Down 3, 0:29 Left

FckVwls

FckVwls

Well-known member
Joined
Dec 1, 2012
Messages
2,988
Reaction score
194
Option 1:

1. Forget the clock is going to be running after the measurement is completed
2. Have your team in a huddle as the clock is moving
3. After much time running, call a basic running play despite not having any timeouts

Option 2:

1. Literally anything else
 
Honestly, still probably a better decision than kicking the field goal.
 
Yeah I'd be salty if I was a BC fan because the clearly outplayed us, but the management of the entire end game sequence was a complete 0/10 by their staff. I mean unfathomably bad.
 
FckVwls said:
Option 1:

1. Forget the clock is going to be running after the measurement is completed= 25% chance of this happening
2. Have your team in a huddle as the clock is moving= 15% chance of this happening
3. After much time running, call a basic running play despite not having any timeouts= 5% chance of this happening

Option 2:

1. Literally anything else = 95% chance of this happening
Click to expand...

We beat the odds!
 
I think their chip shot FG misses really messed up their thinking. They apparently went with the stat analysis to go for the TD and win rather than go for OT and it bit 'em in the ass. Of course how low would their FG % be from anywhere on the field?
 
It's not really a TD vs. FG thing. They could have spiked it on first down, run the ball on 2nd down, spiked it on third down and then still kicked the FG (I don't think this is optimal either, just saying an option)

The ironic thing is that BC coach wanted them to spike it after the run down to the one right after the play. He was signaling for it. But then after the measurement they were just taking their sweet time in the huddle....lol
 
They didn't make a mistake by going for a TD there. They had time for 3 plays (or even 4) to the end zone. They made a mistake by: 1. not having their offense lined up for the play once the first down ruling had been made. 2. not passing the ball
 
Henry Chinaski said:
Yeah I'd be salty if I was a BC fan because the clearly outplayed us, but the management of the entire end game sequence was a complete 0/10 by their staff. I mean unfathomably bad.
Click to expand...

Was it worse than our handing off instead of just running a QB sneak?
 
Actually I don't understand why we didn't just take a knee on 3d down and not risk an aggressive play. Odds of getting a 1st down there were tremendously low. You had a freshman carrying the ball...
 
I shouldn't add so much content to a joke thread....

But I do favor taking 3 knees in the situation we faced. With 1:09 left, BC with 1 timeout. Would bring us to 4th down at own 1 with 0:23 left.

I think the odds are too high of a fumble on 3 regular running plays.


Edited to slightly change the times
 
simosfrostyone said:
Was it worse than our handing off instead of just running a QB sneak?
Click to expand...

Wake needed the first down yardage to finish running out the clock. The third down play snap came with about a minute on the clock. Wake needed about 3 yards for the first. A QB sneak was not getting that yardage. Only other play is QB sneak, then have QB or punter run around in end zone, take safety and leave BC under 10 seconds with a 3-2 score and a Kinal punt distance away from paydirt.
 
Henry Chinaski said:
I dunno given it was third and three I think you go ahead and try and end the game by making a first down. Im ok with it
Click to expand...

We weren't going to get a first down there. Taking a knee became standard in the NFL years ago after that crazy Eagles game. You have to go with the percentages. I doubt Clawson makes that mistake again. At least I sure hope not.
 
I don't think it is really just the 3rd down play:

A. You can kneel 3 times and take a safety and leave about 0:15 on the clock with a free kick

OR

B. Do regular running plays which take a bit more time and give you an outside chance of getting a first down but you risk a fumble on each of the plays.

This is probably pretty close, but I think given BC's kicker and offense choice A is a bit better. But option B has its mertis, just didn't work this time. Not a huge deal to me.
 
FckVwls said:
I shouldn't add so much content to a joke thread....

But I do favor taking 3 knees in the situation we faced. With 1:09 left, BC with 1 timeout. Would bring us to 4th down at own 1 with 0:23 left.

I think the odds are too high of a fumble on 3 regular running plays.


Edited to slightly change the times
Click to expand...

I call BS. The odds are not that high of a fumble on three running plays.

We've run 205 running plays this season and have only lost two fumbles. That's one every 100 plays

We played that possession perfectly other than the last play. We had a third and 3 where a first down would seal a win. That's much better than giving the other team the ball back
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top