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KenPom 2015-2016: Back on Top: #1 in Luck (1/11)

ReplacementDeac

ReplacementDeac

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1. Duke
3. Virginia
7. North Carolina
16. Notre Dame
21. Miami
25. Louisville
30. Pittsburgh
33. Syracuse
37. Florida State
41. NC State
56. Clemson
60. Wake Forest
85. Georgia Tech
131. Virginia Tech
157. Boston College


Preseason ratings were posted over the weekend. Here’s a reminder as to what goes into them…

The components and weighting is based on a regression of the past nine seasons. The system is, by 2015 standards, pretty simple. It doesn’t try to project playing time for individual players. It doesn’t know about transfers, and all but 5-star recruits are virtually ignored. If you think your favorite team is ranked too low, the reason is probably that there are really good transfers or recruits arriving.

......

Projected offense is largely determined by the quality of a team’s offense over the previous three seasons and its defense from last season. Projected defense uses similar variables.

Returning personnel is considered as well. Generally, the more players returning, the better. However, the quality of the player is also a factor. Losing a high-usage/high-efficiency player hurts a team’s offense a lot more than losing a role player. In fact, a low-usage inefficient role player that returns can actually hurt a team’s rating. So while chasing off a player is not the most ethical practice, it is apparently a good sign for the program when a struggling player seeks a new school.

.......

There is also a penalty for a coaching change, with a greater hit for teams ranked higher. Basically, teams that change coaches tend to underperform their counterparts that have not changed coaches, all other things being equal.
Click to expand...


Code: 
Date 			Rk	Opponent	Result	  	Poss.	%	Location	Conf	
Fri Nov 13 		332	UMBC		W, 81-61	71	96%	Home 	  	 
Sun Nov 15 		151	Bucknell	W, 74-72	70	60%	Away 	  	 
Wed Nov 18 		64	Richmond	W, 71-67	68	66%	Home 	  	 
Mon Nov 23 		13	Indiana		L, 80-74	72	29%	Neutral 	  	 
Mon Nov 30 		223	Rutgers		W, 74-69	71	70%	Away 	  	 
Fri Dec 4 		92	Arkansas	W, 80-73	75	74%	Home 	  	 
Tue Dec 15 		178	UNC Greensboro	W, 80-68	72	86%	Home 	  	 
Fri Dec 18 		132	CoastalCarolina	W, 76-66	70	82%	Home 	  	 
Tue Dec 22 		31	Xavier		W, 73-72	70	53%	Home 	  	 
Tue Dec 29 		49	LSU		L, 78-72	74	30%	Away 	  	 
Sun Jan 3 		25	Louisville	L, 75-67	71	21%	Away 	  	×
Wed Jan 6 		1	Duke		L, 78-71	71	27%	Home 	  	×
Sun Jan 10 		41	NC St.		W, 73-71	71	57%	Home 	  	×
Wed Jan 13 		131	Virginia Tech	W, 73-72	70	55%	Away 	  	×
Sat Jan 16 		33	Syracuse	W, 72-71	71	53%	Home 	  	×
Wed Jan 20 		7	North Carolina	L, 84-71	75	14%	Away 	  	×
Sat Jan 23 		21	Miami FL	L, 74-66	68	20%	Away 	  	×
Mon Jan 25 		3	Virginia	L, 68-64	65	31%	Home 	  	×
Sun Jan 31 		16	Notre Dame	L, 77-68	69	19%	Away 	  	×
Tue Feb 2 		56	Clemson		W, 69-66	68	64%	Home 	  	×
Sat Feb 6 		37	Florida St.	W, 74-72	71	54%	Home 	  	×
Wed Feb 10 		85	Georgia Tech	L, 71-69	70	42%	Away 	  	×
Sat Feb 13 		41	NC St.		L, 75-69	71	27%	Away 	  	×
Tue Feb 16 		30	Pittsburgh	L, 74-66	67	24%	Away 	  	×
Sun Feb 21 		157	Boston College	W, 77-66	70	85%	Home 	  	×
Wed Feb 24 		16	Notre Dame	L, 73-72	69	45%	Home 	  	×
Sun Feb 28 		131	Virginia Tech	W, 77-68	70	82%	Home 	  	×
Tue Mar 1 		1	Duke		L, 82-67	71	9%	Away 	  	×
Projected record:	14-14	7-11
 
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They have us playing a lot of close ones! Need the ball to bounce our way, makes some free throws and pick up wins on a couple of those close loss predictions.
 
The Indiana game would be a day or so removed from 5 weeks since Codi's injury. Given a 4-6 week recovery time. Would be huge to have him ready for that game. Doubtful though.
 
how did we end up playing bucknell on the road? that's gonna be real tough without cmm.
 
Schedule is much, much tougher this year.

I guess Danny doesn't believe in coasting in to the ACC season.
 
Xavier/LSU over winter break is going to be brutal. Wish those could have been scheduled earlier in the month.
 
TwentyONE said:
Schedule is much, much tougher this year.

I guess Danny doesn't believe in coasting in to the ACC season.
Click to expand...

Yep. Would rather this be the case than be Virginia Tech with 20+ wins for three straight years and miss the dance due to SOS.
 
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ReplacementDeac said:
how did we end up playing bucknell on the road? that's gonna be real tough without cmm.
Click to expand...

Eh if we can't expect to win at Bucknell, then might as well pencil us in for another 0-9 conference road record. Nice to give our guys a true road game before traveling out to Maui. Even without Codi we should win that game
 
The projected record is actually 15-13.

Also the projection didn't include the other two games, after Indiana, we play at the Maui Invitational.
 
The ACC has 12 teams in the top 60? Wow. That is stacked.
 
DeacDiggler said:
because he was a disaster and led 4 NBA players into taking a giant dump on the floor in the ncaa tournament.
Click to expand...

Gaudio never got a fair chance. Wake improved in each of his three years and he was an excellent recruiter.

Ron should have replaced Bz with the best available lady coach to maximize his cred with our insatiable liberal weenie fans.
 
TwentyONE said:
Schedule is much, much tougher this year.

I guess Danny doesn't believe in coasting in to the ACC season.
Click to expand...

Tulsa's non-conference schedule his second year was also very tough. I don't like it personally (would rather build some confidence with some easy wins), but I guess he know what he's doing.
 
deacinpoland said:
Gaudio never got a fair chance. Wake improved in each of his three years and he was an excellent recruiter.

Ron should have replaced Bz with the best available lady coach to maximize his cred with our insatiable liberal weenie fans.
Click to expand...

Yep. Nailed it. Hilary Clinton, Bernie Sanders and Rachel Maddow are to blame for the WF recent sorry basketball fortunes... :wtf:
 
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