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Obama Can't Count on Large Hispanic Vote...

There 's no need for a new thread for tihs. It's part of your other thread.
 
Stop starting new threads to make the same point. Can we get a mod over here to merge these threads? This is the one thing that's just as bad over here as on DS, an unmoderated Politics board.
 
Obama will get more Hispanic votes than he did in 2008 and a higher percentage tjha nin 2008.
 
Someone needs to bet a 50 dollar six-pack on that.
 
You think? I would be shocked if that happens.

Think about it. AZ, AL, Ga and other places have passed anti-immigrant laws.

About a dozen states are setting new laws to suppress the Hispanic and other minority voting.

I'd be very surprised if Obama doesn't get 70% of the Hispanic vote.

The ONLY chance the GOP has to keep this under 70% is putting Rubio on the ticket.
 
I don't know if you can be so completely sure.

I think that its somewhat inaccurate to say that these states have passed anti-immigration laws and that this will give Obama Hispanic votes in these important states. Many of these laws are not simply anti immigration, rather they are to enforce legal immigration. Its also not entirely accurate to draw the conclusion that all Hispanics are against all of these laws. There are more than enough voting, legal Hispanics that are on the side of law, order and the process of legal immigration. Just saying that these laws will create Obama votes seems like a big step and somewhat uncharitable to the group.

Hispanics still care just as much as everyone else about jobs and the economic well being of their families. I have trouble seeing Obama doing so well with the demographic this time around. (still carries it, just not as well as before)
 
I don't know if you can be so completely sure.

I think that its somewhat inaccurate to say that these states have passed anti-immigration laws and that this will give Obama Hispanic votes in these important states. Many of these laws are not simply anti immigration, rather they are to enforce legal immigration. Its also not entirely accurate to draw the conclusion that all Hispanics are against all of these laws. There are more than enough voting, legal Hispanics that are on the side of law, order and the process of legal immigration. Just saying that these laws will create Obama votes seems like a big step and somewhat uncharitable to the group.

Hispanics still care just as much as everyone else about jobs and the economic well being of their families. I have trouble seeing Obama doing so well with the demographic this time around. (still carries it, just not as well as before)

I think you're hitting on some key points. It seems that many people make the assumption is that the immigration issue is the only one Hispanics care about and I think your last paragraph is right on the money.
 
What states would change columns if the GOP got 30% of the Hispanics voting rather than 40%?

Only one I've got is New Mexico.
 
What states would change columns if the GOP got 30% of the Hispanics voting rather than 40%?

Only one I've got is New Mexico.

The article I read mentioned that four states gave Obama larger than expected Hispanic turnout and votes. If that isn't repeated in 2012, those states could easily swing toward a solid, articulate, proven Republican candidate. At least, that was that author's analysis. I haven't done my own but it sounds about right.

"Obama got a larger-than-expected boost from Hispanic voters in 2008 in four states in particular: Colorado, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada, including becoming the first Democrat since at least 1988 to get a majority of Hispanic votes in Florida."
 
I don't know if you can be so completely sure.

I think that its somewhat inaccurate to say that these states have passed anti-immigration laws and that this will give Obama Hispanic votes in these important states. Many of these laws are not simply anti immigration, rather they are to enforce legal immigration. Its also not entirely accurate to draw the conclusion that all Hispanics are against all of these laws. There are more than enough voting, legal Hispanics that are on the side of law, order and the process of legal immigration. Just saying that these laws will create Obama votes seems like a big step and somewhat uncharitable to the group.

Hispanics still care just as much as everyone else about jobs and the economic well being of their families. I have trouble seeing Obama doing so well with the demographic this time around. (still carries it, just not as well as before)

This is how I see it and I work with a very large number of Hispanic immigrants that have come here legally. The guys I work with are more anti-illegal immigration than most Tea Party members.
 
I live in a state that tried to an anti-immigrant law in Prop 187. that was twenty years. Hispanics weer voting for GOP nearly 45% then. The haven't approached 40% since.

You guys are dreaming.

As to CO, NV, NM being in play-Obama won 9, 12, 15%. Those states are not in play.
 
What states would change columns if the GOP got 30% of the Hispanics voting rather than 40%?

Only one I've got is New Mexico.

I think it's more about holding serve and transforming the map long term.
 
Using anything from David Horowitz as credible is a joke.
 
I live in a state that tried to an anti-immigrant law in Prop 187. that was twenty years. Hispanics weer voting for GOP nearly 45% then. The haven't approached 40% since.

You guys are dreaming.

As to CO, NV, NM being in play-Obama won 9, 12, 15%. Those states are not in play.

The fourth state, Florida, was Obama 51 McCain 48. Any dropoff in Hispanic support jeopardizes Florida for Obama. As far as the others, Colorado would be at risk, and the foreclosure/unemployment crisis in Nevada combined with Hispanic voter dropoff could put that state in play.
 
You are really dreaming.

FL is always in play, but if the GOP supports the Ryan budget they are dead in FL. It's basically that simple.

There WON'T be a Hispanic drop off. The anti-Hispanic laws in multiple states will guarantee that. If you think Hispanics will vote for a GOP POTUS who will encourage those types of laws you are being delusional.

Hispanics understand that encouraging the GOP will create DWH stops.
 
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